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Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

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25 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

So the question is, can the PNA screw everything up?

Well...we are the south... ;)  

What I hate is that we are finally heading in the right direction as we approach March--I'd much rather have winter in winter than to go from a false spring back to winter. Anyway--if it can produce another winter event in March I'd gladly take that, too. 

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I have been thinking since January we would lock into an east coast trough in March and April; thought it would begin before the end of Feb but no; now getting set up for some killing freezes.  The -PNA may prevent some of this; will be interesting to see how this plays out. 

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1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

Yep, nothing big happing. Small chance of something small in 5 days but even that is unlikely.

But dealing with the LR, the indices are interesting today:

PNA - Looks to stay negative (bad)

AO - Looks to go strongly negative (good)

NAO - Looks to go strongly negative (yes! I said strongly negative----great)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

EPO - Looks to stay negative (good)

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4indices.png

 

So the question is, can the PNA screw everything up?

I think the fact that it's going to be March by the time it has any effect is going to screw everything up.  We're too little too late IMO.  I loathe trying to track March winter events where it melts as fast as it falls. 

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42 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

I think the fact that it's going to be March by the time it has any effect is going to screw everything up.  We're too little too late IMO.  I loathe trying to track March winter events where it melts as fast as it falls. 

https://www.google.com/search?q=march+1993+blizzard&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en-us&client=safari

If you think it can't snow and stick you must not have been here when this happened. 

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It's a tough pattern for Southeast Winter Storms, but the nail in the coffin for me is the PNA.   The PNA is often the best teleconnection to have on your side for an east coast snowstorm, because it can help dig troughs, press cold air masses towards the south, and force polar vortices to dive further into the trough.   I use to think my areas in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast needed everything to fall in place just right for an east coast snowstorm – Negative NAO, Negative EPO, and Negative AO.   I’ve learned that a positive, especially a strongly pronounced, PNA can overcome other teleconnections even when there about to be broken down by a progressive pattern.  In fact, a positive PNA has a downstream effect that enhances the –NAO and –AO. 

Then take a look at the NAO.  Sure it drops towards negative, but models indicate that its going to be a East-Based NAO.  Consequently, the models shift the core of the cold air into the Midwest, and the storm track drives through Midwest and Ohio Valley.  Not to mention, the Trough over the Western/Pacific areas of the CONUS keeps coming in stronger with each run.  I'm left with the impression that Ridging will be even more prevalent than forecast on the East Coast with some 1-2 day cold air intrusions.  The core of cold air, as a I mentioned, will focus over the upper midwest. 

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2 hours ago, Poimen said:

Well...we are the south... ;)  

What I hate is that we are finally heading in the right direction as we approach March--I'd much rather have winter in winter than to go from a false spring back to winter. Anyway--if it can produce another winter event in March I'd gladly take that, too. 

It seems like almost every other year we end up in a situation in march and April where we scream at the sky where was this **$&#&#&# pattern in January and february??? I hate it too...by the time late March is here, I'm ready for spring.. as much as I love cold weather....I hate that  cold...but not cold enough crap we see by then. 

Even though its really rare...I hold out hope every year we see some unusually cold upper low that can produce surprises. I wonder if I'll ever see anything like 93 again though. 

 

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17 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

No I don't think that. I think it doesnt happen often, especially imby. That 93 storm was no big deal in clt.

Yeah... March 1, 2009 is a better example of how the Charlotte Area can squeeze out a good snowfall in March.

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1 hour ago, Tornadocane said:

It's a tough pattern for Southeast Winter Storms, but the nail in the coffin for me is the PNA.   The PNA is often the best teleconnection to have on your side for an east coast snowstorm, because it can help dig troughs, press cold air masses towards the south, and force polar vortices to dive further into the trough.   I use to think my areas in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast needed everything to fall in place just right for an east coast snowstorm – Negative NAO, Negative EPO, and Negative AO.   I’ve learned that a positive, especially a strongly pronounced, PNA can overcome other teleconnections even when there about to be broken down by a progressive pattern.  In fact, a positive PNA has a downstream effect that enhances the –NAO and –AO. 

 

 

Then take a look at the NAO.  Sure it drops towards negative, but models indicate that its going to be a East-Based NAO.  Consequently, the models shift the core of the cold air into the Midwest, and the storm track drives through Midwest and Ohio Valley.  Not to mention, the Trough over the Western/Pacific areas of the CONUS keeps coming in stronger with each run.  I'm left with the impression that Ridging will be even more prevalent than forecast on the East Coast with some 1-2 day cold air intrusions.  The core of cold air, as a I mentioned, will focus over the upper midwest. 

Well, not exactly..... If the AO and NAO do fall to the levels indicated by modeling, it could set up a pattern that's cold from coast to coast. Not often, but it can happen. That would favor storms that enter southern California and exit the east coast of GA. Also, there are indicators that show this -NAO might be more west-based.

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1 hour ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Well, not exactly..... If the AO and NAO do fall to the levels indicated by modeling, it could set up a pattern that's cold from coast to coast. Not often, but it can happen. That would favor storms that enter southern California and exit the east coast of GA. Also, there are indicators that show this -NAO might be more west-based.

Don’t West-based NAO’s start as east-based and progress westward anyway?

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3 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Well, not exactly..... If the AO and NAO do fall to the levels indicated by modeling, it could set up a pattern that's cold from coast to coast. Not often, but it can happen. That would favor storms that enter southern California and exit the east coast of GA. Also, there are indicators that show this -NAO might be more west-based.

I agree with your point that a nice pattern would set up if the AO and NAO fell to the levels being forecast in the 7+ day range, but my belief is that the drop is overdone and transient. 

As far as a whether there is a west-based v. east-based NAO on many the models (GFS, GEF, ECM, and CMC), a vast majority indicate the strongest high pressure to locate east of Greenland.  The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic might get lucky for the day 5 storm, because the models sweep a low with a trailing cold front through the north east on day 3 or 4, which then acts a pseudo 50/50 low and provides enough amplification to keep the day 5 storm from going straight out to sea.   There really isn't any true blocking.  Its merely a matter of lucky timing and placement of the 50/50 low. 

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LR indices look about the same as yesterday. Everything is on our side except the PNA (strongly negative). I've always thought that was the most important (for the east). But if we get the AO, NAO, and EPO to all go negative; not sure if that can force the cold air into a SE trough. Or as others have said, a coast to coast trough...

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On 2/13/2018 at 10:06 AM, Poimen said:

Well...we are the south... ;)  

What I hate is that we are finally heading in the right direction as we approach March--I'd much rather have winter in winter than to go from a false spring back to winter. Anyway--if it can produce another winter event in March I'd gladly take that, too. 

We are in the south, but its still winter time and you know February is suppose to be a cold month here also.  :snowwindow: At least in the mountains for sure.

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8 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Euro brings 588dm heights to DC in 6 days. It's so weird that these things are quiet, like ignoring them changes them

What's your point? 

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8 hours ago, goldman75 said:

And on that note, Myrtle beach will take its D for the winter ( trace snow and good cold ) and call it a season.  On to the severe weather!

Lol,and you give that a 'D'??  Listen, Myrtle Beach hit their average with a trace this year!  I'm afraid you'll need to move north quite a bit, or you'll be disappointed each and every winter down there..

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Well mid-February is where I like to take inventory and look to end the tracking year and it looks like it's time to punt.  No February 27 2004 is in the making. Of course we get a raging west based -NAO at the very end of the season....to go along with a awesome Aleutian ridge/west coast trough combo.  :wacko:Why wouldn't we?  Early spring is such a troll. 

But I'd have to give this year a solid B though.  Christmas to mid January was very cold and I got a solid 4 inch snow storm that hung around a couple days.  Just a bit above my average and the cold January helped push it to a B for me.  That's not even to mention the early December threat.  CLT missed it, but got back end snow showers all Saturday afternoon that was fun to watch fall even though it didn't stick.  Can't complain.  

Next year perhaps we can slip into a solid Nino and get the STJ working for us.  It seems like for the last several years we've been depending on northern streams systems to dig just right.  Surprisingly at least one a year have been working out for many of us.  If all goes according to plan, I'll be in Mooresville so goodbye I-85 fail zone!! lol. 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png

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7 hours ago, Snow dog said:

Lol,and you give that a 'D'??  Listen, Myrtle Beach hit their average with a trace this year!  I'm afraid you'll need to move north quite a bit, or you'll be disappointed each and every winter down there..

Mostly a D because of the horribly blown forecast.  Every met here was even now casting as the storm was in progress saying 4-6 inches. The trace was mostly just sleet.  So yeah, the only reason I didn’t say F because of the potential was we did have a good stretch of really cold weather which was nice.

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