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Tornadocane

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About Tornadocane

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  • Location:
    Hollywood, FL
  1. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    I'm in agreement with Griteater. The WPC discussion I posted above basically expresses low confidence in a final solution and forecast. There are some big differences between models in the short and medium range, and I would argue that there exists noticeable differences between observations and models in the short range. There are just so many factors at play with this event. Don't think we'll have a good idea until tonight.
  2. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd
  3. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    I think the GFS is indicating a more progressive frontal passage sweeping through the eastern U.S. that allows one wave to ride up the coast. Other global models are presenting a slower frontal passage that allows two waves to ride up the coast before sweeping through the area.
  4. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    I think the main difference between a more or less amped solutions outcome seems to be the interplay between our exiting west Atlantic low (energy), and our primary low located over the Great Lakes. The GFS run demonstrates this very clearly. Greater separation between two system (seen on 500mb vort map) allows heights to build along the coast, resulting in a less positive trough and more energy bending collecting and bending backwards. This separation allows our wave to strengthen further west, and creates more interplay between the tropical front (airmass) located over the Bahamas.
  5. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    If you get any accumulations from this storm, I'm gonna have you pick my power ball numbers. And I win... I'll donate snowstorm relief funds for the whole city of Tallahassee. It will probably only run me a total of $20 bucks each year, but the whole city can pretty much handle winter events with a single bag of salt. I'll have quadrupled the towns winter weather budget.
  6. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    I think that ridge and its orientation deserves a round of applause. Without that crazy SOB digging more northern stream energy, I think the positively tilted trough would orient further east, dig a little less and kick things out faster. Instead, the trough basically pushes further south and Southwest on these new runs of the ECMWF and GFS, so it takes longer for energy to round the base. It also seems to split the energy - one to the NE and another to the SW. I think this makes all the difference. Things appear to slow down about 12 hours, giving more time for things to go neutral and negative. Just for comparison so others can visualize my comments, take a look at the 12z ECMWF yesterday at 120/144 and today 96/120 500MB in the link below. Once on the page, by pressing the down arrow on your keyboard you can look at yesterdays run. Press the up button to go back to today's run. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2018011212&fh=120&xpos=0&ypos=0
  7. Potential 1/17-1/18 threat

    There's a Tropical Moisture envelope sitting off the SE coast and Bahamas. This envelope of tropical moisture has been there for the last three weeks. For example, Super bomb storm and today's event over the East Coast. Also, the flow comes out of the Gulf Coast for a bit of time. Moisture is abundantly available, especially since the low hangs back for a bit and dives further southwest into the trough.
  8. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    The ECMWF develops that northern piece of energy and pops a low further north. The Northern low keeps pushing East, but gets absorbed by low in the Hudson Bay which is driving down towards the Northeast United States. The trough hangs back and the energy hangs back to the Southwest, collects at the base of the trough and then swings around as the trough moves is pushed further east. A low pops up of the southeast coast. The Hudson Bay Low dives far enough southeast, and directs the Southern towards the North and NNE instead of ENE and NE.
  9. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    The 12z GFS depiction of a snow storm over the NC to VA makes sense to me. I take note when the GFS holds energy back, because its a model that likes to push things forward in the medium and long-range (I'm not sure if this bias has been corrected). This creates enough time for the upper level low to close off in the Southeast. EURO and GGEM has shown this solution. Anyway plenty of cold air available to produce snowfall all the way to the coast. As has been the case for the last few weeks, plenty of tropical moisture available in the Atlantic. This moisture pocket, and associated warm air, just keeps sticking around, will allow for a larger temperature gradient to develop. We saw it with the Bomb storm, were seeing it today, and the models continue to push this tropical air mass towards the southeast. Even here in Hollywood, FL, we experienced this temperature gradient and the prevalent tropical moisture pushing back in from the Bahamas and Florida Straights (an area where pretty strong LPs and boundaries have formed within the last few weeks). Meanwhile, there's plenty of entertainment weather-wise over the next two weeks, and plenty of interesting questions. We have crazy anomalies in Canada next Monday. 0c line pushes to the Arctic Ocean, and 2-meter temperatures in the NW Territory push into the 2-5. A couple more cold fronts. We'll see if it results in any snowy possibilities. Additionally, GFS and and a few other runs of other models seem to present the possibility of a subtropical system forming at various time frames. I can see it happening. But overall, the main question is how long can cold air keep plunging this far South? Eventually, these cold air masses are going to need to recharge. If positive anomalies continue to form over the North Pole, can these fronts continue to push extreme temperatures into Siberia, and consequently, the Eastern United States. End of Verbal Vomit.
  10. January 3-4 Storm Thread part II

    Been observing development of low pressure down by the keys. Surface observations indicate a 1015MB low just east of Marathon, FL. Plenty of surface observations confirm a 1015MB Circulation that is dropping at a slow rate, within an area of 1016MB pressures, moving across South Florida from East to West. Also noticed sporadic winds from the South and Southwest accompanying this area. This has provided us with a rainy day hear in Broward County Florida (Ft. Lauderdale-Hollywood Metropolitan area), where we’ve picked up .75-1.25” of rain today, and expect to receive another inch or more before all is said and done. I think this developing area of low pressure is continuing to slowly track west towards and through the keys, which is located around the most extreme temperature gradient. I think the models have noticed this western placement of the primary area of low pressure. I am questioning whether we may see the initial location of the low placed further west along the more extreme temperature gradient, and whether this played a factor in the recent shift west on the models. http://www.windmapper.com/?Loc=FL https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-79.22,24.95,3000/loc=-80.048,25.285 http://www.usairnet.com/weather/maps/current/florida/barometric-pressure/
  11. March 13-14, The Blizzard of 2017: Obs

    Center looks to be 25-50 miles off the coast already. Precip is filling in along the VA, DE, MD, and NJ coastline.
  12. March 13-14, The Blizzard of 2017: Obs

    Center down to 994 over the Virginia Cape. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=pmsl&underlay=1&source=1
  13. March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential

    Center is already down to 993/994 Mbs located over the Virginia Cape. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=pmsl&underlay=1&source=1
  14. March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential

    The UNISYS pressure change map isn't always the best tool. It tends to over-exaggerate pressure changes in various directions. I would recommend the following link to analyze the surface conditions. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=pmsl&underlay=1&source=1
  15. March 13 - 15 Major Winter Storm Potential

    Yep. It was always going to come down to Now Casting. So many variables. Back to the days when models were useless. We're in the Wild West of meteorology. Yippee Ki YaY Model Huggers!!!!! This is just one of those hard forecasts close to an event in which 20 million people have forecasts the can change in a matter of 6 hours. FYI... NAM already looks different from the surface analysis.
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