Tornadocane

Yeah. With the EURO run, I think there's definitely a trend to pump the ridge out west and amplify the Atlantic High, cutting off for a bit. The NAM is definitely wrapping up that southeast vorticity too fast. I missed that when I first looked at the run.

Yeah. Once I saw it had the same solution as the icon, there was really no choice but to throw it out.

Yeah. I don't think the NAM/EURO super friend compromise is too far off if the ridge out west keeps building. A minor difference in amplitude of the ridge seems to deepen the trough, as well as slows things down just enough to blow up and amplify the Atlantic ridge to it's NE. This seems to enable the trough to go negative.

Some of these storms are quickly dropping and lifting tornadoes. Storms are racing to the northeast, which means people won’t have much time to prepare before a storm treks across their areas. Given these factors, I think there’s been a bit of hesitancy with the issuance of tornado warnings. About six storms I’ve following today have been severe warned despite displaying decent signatures on reflectivity and velocity maps. The one near Louisville, as well as the storms approaching south bend right now are examples. Plenty in Alabama. They could put down a quick tornado any second. There have already been warnings issued after storms have already put down a quick tornado.

The Tri-State area is basically threading the needle with every single storm this winter, but there are so many quick moving storms this year. There will be storms when its warm, and there will be storms when it's cold. I imagine there will be 3-4 storms that drop 3-10 inches of snow this winter, as well as some super coastal runners that bury the interior areas with 8-16 inches. Currently, the GFS is depicting some close coastal storms between days 5-14. Anything could happen.

Ditto in regards to the member's comments above. This is trending towards a record low ice minimum.

There's hope on the models.

I agree with your point that a nice pattern would set up if the AO and NAO fell to the levels being forecast in the 7+ day range, but my belief is that the drop is overdone and transient. As far as a whether there is a west-based v. east-based NAO on many the models (GFS, GEF, ECM, and CMC), a vast majority indicate the strongest high pressure to locate east of Greenland. The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic might get lucky for the day 5 storm, because the models sweep a low with a trailing cold front through the north east on day 3 or 4, which then acts a pseudo 50/50 low and provides enough amplification to keep the day 5 storm from going straight out to sea. There really isn't any true blocking. Its merely a matter of lucky timing and placement of the 50/50 low.

Yeah... March 1, 2009 is a better example of how the Charlotte Area can squeeze out a good snowfall in March.

It's a tough pattern for Southeast Winter Storms, but the nail in the coffin for me is the PNA. The PNA is often the best teleconnection to have on your side for an east coast snowstorm, because it can help dig troughs, press cold air masses towards the south, and force polar vortices to dive further into the trough. I use to think my areas in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast needed everything to fall in place just right for an east coast snowstorm – Negative NAO, Negative EPO, and Negative AO. I’ve learned that a positive, especially a strongly pronounced, PNA can overcome other teleconnections even when there about to be broken down by a progressive pattern. In fact, a positive PNA has a downstream effect that enhances the –NAO and –AO. Then take a look at the NAO. Sure it drops towards negative, but models indicate that its going to be a East-Based NAO. Consequently, the models shift the core of the cold air into the Midwest, and the storm track drives through Midwest and Ohio Valley. Not to mention, the Trough over the Western/Pacific areas of the CONUS keeps coming in stronger with each run. I'm left with the impression that Ridging will be even more prevalent than forecast on the East Coast with some 1-2 day cold air intrusions. The core of cold air, as a I mentioned, will focus over the upper midwest.

The ECMWF develops that northern piece of energy and pops a low further north. The Northern low keeps pushing East, but gets absorbed by low in the Hudson Bay which is driving down towards the Northeast United States. The trough hangs back and the energy hangs back to the Southwest, collects at the base of the trough and then swings around as the trough moves is pushed further east. A low pops up of the southeast coast. The Hudson Bay Low dives far enough southeast, and directs the Southern towards the North and NNE instead of ENE and NE.

The 12z GFS depiction of a snow storm over the NC to VA makes sense to me. I take note when the GFS holds energy back, because its a model that likes to push things forward in the medium and long-range (I'm not sure if this bias has been corrected). This creates enough time for the upper level low to close off in the Southeast. EURO and GGEM has shown this solution. Anyway plenty of cold air available to produce snowfall all the way to the coast. As has been the case for the last few weeks, plenty of tropical moisture available in the Atlantic. This moisture pocket, and associated warm air, just keeps sticking around, will allow for a larger temperature gradient to develop. We saw it with the Bomb storm, were seeing it today, and the models continue to push this tropical air mass towards the southeast. Even here in Hollywood, FL, we experienced this temperature gradient and the prevalent tropical moisture pushing back in from the Bahamas and Florida Straights (an area where pretty strong LPs and boundaries have formed within the last few weeks). Meanwhile, there's plenty of entertainment weather-wise over the next two weeks, and plenty of interesting questions. We have crazy anomalies in Canada next Monday. 0c line pushes to the Arctic Ocean, and 2-meter temperatures in the NW Territory push into the 2-5. A couple more cold fronts. We'll see if it results in any snowy possibilities. Additionally, GFS and and a few other runs of other models seem to present the possibility of a subtropical system forming at various time frames. I can see it happening. But overall, the main question is how long can cold air keep plunging this far South? Eventually, these cold air masses are going to need to recharge. If positive anomalies continue to form over the North Pole, can these fronts continue to push extreme temperatures into Siberia, and consequently, the Eastern United States. End of Verbal Vomit.