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Tornadocane

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About Tornadocane

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  • Location:
    Hollywood, FL
  1. March 2018 Model Discussion

    It says Initialized Thursday Mar 15 at 12:00z. That's today.
  2. March 7th 2018 Coastal Storm Observations

    I find it hilarious that some people are waiting for the rain/snow line to creep in from east to west.
  3. I don't need the Euro to tell me that thundersnow is going to happen. Gonna be a large area where its possible: Eastern PA, NJ, NYC Metro, Rockland and Suffern NY, CT, RI, and SE MA.
  4. I would not be excited for a BS storm. If you lived West of the Hudson river in NJ this is not a BS storm. This is could be a 14-24" thump from Northern Somerset County NJ to New London CT.
  5. I play with house money all the time. My advice. Just go home. Keep the money. You'll have won. The poster is ese of Manhatten. lol. Just be happy! At this point. We know what's on the table. Everything north and west of the hudson and near or N or west of the Bronx is going to get slammed. Everything around Manhatten is in this murky 7-14" zone. S and East is looking at 4-10". That's where we are at right now.
  6. Just be happy with your 6" of snow. Anything above that is just gravy.
  7. Make of it what your want. I lived in Paramus NJ for 23 years of my life. I have no dog in this fight as the only thing I can hope for in regards to exciting weather from this system is a brief thunderstorm and 35 MPH winds. yawn. I've been through tropical waves with 6 hours of constant thunderstorms and 40+ MPH winds and a couple of TS/Hurridances. During the last event I went low. This even I'm going high. The next even I'm going high. The pattern came together people. You guys are going to get it. The GFS is out to lunch in regards to Temperature and Precipitation. I see a primary in the Great Lakes providing some nice front-end snow and pulling a coastal low and accompanying heavy subtropical moisture into NYC Metro/SNE, and then the coastal low pulling ENE as a result of influence from the West Atlantic low that hit the area last Thursday. It doesn't get much better. And if it got alot better it would be a BECs.
  8. .2" an hour is equivalent to 2" inches of snow per hour. But given the dynamics, it could be 2-3" of snow.
  9. Its March. The cold air isn't that cold. 1-4" (2-4" during the heaviest part) is gonna happen. I'll guaran-damn-tee thundersnow. But it ain't gonna pile up at 6" an hour.
  10. OMG I wish this event was happening up in Paramus when I lived up there. The models are going to bust on the high side. Cold air is readily available. This event is most likely going to start at 3-4 am for NYC west and last for 30 hours - 16 hours of which is going to feature 1-4 inches of snow. Someone is going to lollipop in the 24+" range around central northern New Jersey through the Hudson Valley into Connecticut. That primary low is pulling subtropical moisture into cold air
  11. I was just thinking this last night. A lot of models seem to decay the low that sits along the coastline, because the most favorable baroclinic area is off to the east north east. Moreover, as the great lakes storm is absorbed into our coastal storm, its also being pulled east by the West Atlantic low pressure that affected the area last Thursday. If I were sitting across the Hudson in North New Jersey (including Bergen) or around Orangeburg NY/Yonkers, I would be extremely excited about the model runs today. There's a decent chance this is could be a MECS for you guys.
  12. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    There's hope on the models.
  13. February 2018 Obs

    February in Hollywood, FL has been warmer than average. My location is between the more east Ft. Lauderdale Airport and the more west North Perry Airport (in Pembroke Pines), receiving less sea breeze and warmer conditions than the latter. February has been warmer than average in South Florida. Naples has broken or tied their Record High Maximums 8 times. Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, and Miami have broken or tied their Record high minimums 4 times. My location has climbed to 87.8 according to my outside thermometer and our record high minimum looks to have been around 76/77. Across the spectrum of temperature measurement (primarily the Ft. Lauderdale area), we have not had a single below average max, minimum and/or daily (24 hour) mean in my location. For the remainder of the month, I expect my location (Ft. Lauderdale), to break or tie its record high minimum 2 or more times before the month is over. Excluding today given that the record minimum is 76 and we’ve dropped to 75, the days between 2/22-28 could be broken. The period includes Record high minimums that are as follows: 1 Day of 73 that is likely to fall; 3 days of 74; 3 days of 75; and 1 day at 76. Today and yesterday featured Minimum high temperatures of 75. There's a small possibility that we end the month with 9 days of record high minimums broken or tied, which would account for 1/3 of the month. http://www.weather.gov/media/mfl/climate/Daily_Records_Fort_Lauderdale.pdf
  14. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    I agree with your point that a nice pattern would set up if the AO and NAO fell to the levels being forecast in the 7+ day range, but my belief is that the drop is overdone and transient. As far as a whether there is a west-based v. east-based NAO on many the models (GFS, GEF, ECM, and CMC), a vast majority indicate the strongest high pressure to locate east of Greenland. The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic might get lucky for the day 5 storm, because the models sweep a low with a trailing cold front through the north east on day 3 or 4, which then acts a pseudo 50/50 low and provides enough amplification to keep the day 5 storm from going straight out to sea. There really isn't any true blocking. Its merely a matter of lucky timing and placement of the 50/50 low.
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