Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95
 Share

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

In my opinion, the winter has been ok to this point. I would give it a C (average). If we can get one more widespread SE storm it could become a good winter (B).

I would actually love to see a Miller B storm with a classic CAD setup. This would produce a wide range of precip types. I wouldn't mind seeing a snow, to sleet, to freezing rain, and then back to snow type storm. But all I can do is dream about it right now...    

I can't complain. Best winter I've had in 7 years, Chatham or Wake. Still holding hope that last week in Feb holds a surprise. If not it's time for those springtime thunder storms.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, JQPublic said:

So the split PV is no longer going west to east?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml

MJO going into phase 8

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/

SOI index dropping low. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, WarmNose said:

If the GFS is to be believed, Upstate SC goes above 60 degrees at hr 114 and doesn't go back below 60 until 216....Jeebus..talk about a torch

Yeah, pretty crappy. Good news is it's the warmest model of the suite. Bad news is it's not by much. TWC, which basically uses the GFS run for automated forecast doesn't show GSP below freezing for next 15 days. Hopefully GFS is out to lunch as usual, would be a shame to waste the heart of Feb on spring, but it seems to happen more years than not. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, FallsLake said:

In my opinion, the winter has been ok to this point. I would give it a C (average). If we can get one more widespread SE storm it could become a good winter (B).

Depending on where people are I would expect to see wildly different grades for this winter. I agree, Def a "C" for me. No real lengthy torches, one good cold spell and general coolness otherwise, 2 small snow events, but not even equal to my seasonal average. If we get no more winter from here out I'll probably go with a C - for MBY.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at the latest LR models and it's pretty disappointing. Again just going out to day 10. The euro does have a better pattern setup than the GFS; there's more of southward push of cold air (..still not great) and some signs of more cold air afterwards. I'll be interested to see the 12z.  

**GFS past day 10 (which we all agree is garbage), would signal spring is here.   

0z Euro 850 temps at day 10:

   

aaaa.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

The 0z GFS is similar at 240, as well as the 6z.  Thereafter, the 0z sends most of the cold over to Russia.  Winter is over if that happens.  The 6z doesn't do that, but by 384, it is moving in that direction.  Could be wrong, but it has been laser-locked on that solution for days.

You"re right it has been locked into that for days.  Don't shoot the messenger, but a few mets have been saying that the models are really gonna have a hard time with the propagation of the PV downward, which IMO means they have no idea what's gonna happen.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm a little confused about the source of the below indices chart:

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4indices.png

It's slightly different than this site (which I think are both supposed to be GEFS, maybe different times):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

This first would indicate that the NAO could go negative in the long range. I also like that the EPO will stay negative.

You would think if the PNA is positive, AO is negative, NAO is negative, and EPO is negative; a good pattern would emerge in the coming model runs.  

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...