Jump to content
  • Welcome to American Weather

    Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

Cary_Snow95

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

Recommended Posts

Figured start posting in this thread, 2017 wasn’t a good year for winter weather in Raleigh so let’s hope 2018 brings better luck.  Can’t see how it can get worse.  

We have seen trailing waves swinging around the base of a trough work before and trend better from this range.   The Jan 4-6 potential looks to have marginal cold per Euro/EPS and we know how that works outside of nwNC/SC/GA.  For us Raleigh folks the Jan 1-2 event looks like it for atleast a few weeks.

gfs_z500_vort_us_25.png

Trends over past 48 for day 6-7 has been for better west coast ridge and deeper east trough. 

gfs-ens_z500trend_namer_15.png

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am curious as to where to post the New Years threat. I am figuring it is still somewhat medium to long range (at least that's how the models make it feel this year) that this would be the best place to hold the discussion. The GFS is a little more aggressive for the event, with decent overrunning setting up for it. Hopefully the models will trend in a positive direction for this event.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I am curious as to where to post the New Years threat. I am figuring it is still somewhat medium to long range (at least that's how the models make it feel this year) that this would be the best place to hold the discussion. The GFS is a little more aggressive for the event, with decent overrunning setting up for it. Hopefully the models will trend in a positive direction for this event.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting 11-16 day pattern on the GEFS...looks a lot like this past week which is setting up a real cold next 10 days.  Another round Jan 15 and on?  

EPS looks nothing like this

g9Wffpg.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

^ The 24th looks good. :)

Usually, that model tends to lock in the last week or so of the month.  I think when it’s all said and done, this is going to be one of those winters where the much anticipated winter over doesn’t happen the way many expect.  We usually see false starts with cold patterns.  We’ve seen that with warmth this year.  A couple weeks ago, it looked like a lock for Dec to finish above normal.  How’s that looking now?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure I have ever seen the EPS spit out 15 days of BN temps.  Granted the last 5 days may assume we have snowpack.  The 11-15 isn’t a warm pattern with EPO coming back  

KRDU_2017122800_forecast_EPS_360.png

eps_z500a_d5_nh_360.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Not sure I have ever seen the EPS spit out 15 days of BN temps.  Granted the last 5 days may assume we have snowpack.  The 11-15 isn’t a warm pattern with EPO coming back  
KRDU_2017122800_forecast_EPS_360.png&key=6bd404e1d08d40ed305cd6cfe63708d1ce93f5f324d9f99ff52dcf5f86276e3b
eps_z500a_d5_nh_360.png&key=cfd2887d116fd0080420fb9c7e18e4873643bfb2961ee1718364244d1bb8c304

What would make the models think there is snowpack on the ground when we have not had any snow?


. Pro

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Hammer said:


What would make the models think there is snowpack on the ground when we have not had any snow?


. Pro

Half the EPS members have snow in the Carolinas Jan 3-4.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Not sure I have ever seen the EPS spit out 15 days of BN temps.  Granted the last 5 days may assume we have snowpack.  The 11-15 isn’t a warm pattern with EPO coming back  

KRDU_2017122800_forecast_EPS_360.png

eps_z500a_d5_nh_360.png

The winter that won't end! Maybe we get a January thaw this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Eventually, one of these warm typical Nina winter cancel calls has to be right....doesn’t it?

I'm starting to the think the -EPO is the story of the winter, not the Nina.  It's showing good persistence.  Gives me some hope going into mid January.  Just have to not be in a crazy arctic period and time the highs and lows right. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

I'm starting to the think the -EPO is the story of the winter, not the Nina.  It's showing good persistence.  Gives me some hope going into mid January.  Just have to not be in a crazy arctic period and time the highs and lows right. 

Agree, think we are going to see the cold last well into January if not longer. Probably wont have a real shot of a big dog until the pattern relaxes which may not be for until at least the middle off the month. Hopefully I'm wrong and we get a good snow with all this cold so we can see it stick around for a while. 

 

Looking on the bright side, the ground temps wont be an issue if we ever do see anything fall from the sky  over the next few weeks :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

SOI really tanking the last 30 days,pretty remarkable considering its a weak La Nina.Went from 10.40 to -1.64 in 30 or so days.Usually precip chances increase with a lowering but not yet.

There's usually a 15 day lag though so we'll see.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×