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packbacker

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  1. Maria will be OTS but fairly fortunate considering how close this could have gotten to hitting land. Past few runs have been weakening Jose a little quicker/east and the ridge over NY is edging a little further SE. Looks to be at 73W at this point...if it was west of 75W it might have had a chance. Just to far east at this point to hook back in that much and EPS is going to be fairly spot on with this 72 hour modeled location. Maybe the OBX get some winds/rain out of this though.
  2. 12zCMC shows how a landfall can occur...Jose dissipates quicker then GFS, remnants die off into the MA and the ULL in the deep south helps pull Maria in.
  3. Guess anything's possible...this is where GEFS/EPS had IRMA 4-5 days out from landfall of FL v/s what verified.
  4. 18z GFS connects the AR to the ridge over the NE day 4 so the path to Jose is eliminated. On its own with that.
  5. Shifted west a little. Still clustered safely off the coast though
  6. UK ens shifted west, a few members close to OBX. Also, looks like it does loop Jose back into the MA coast. https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/
  7. Euro this run runs the remnants of Jose into the MA day 6 while the 0z run had a stout ptJose just east of the benchmark.
  8. LOL....and Euro is heading towards NE day 8.
  9. First Euro run in a while that shifted west from it's previous run. Remanants of Jose dives into the MA coast and Maria looks to be crawling/trapped just off the SE coast. UK does something similar.
  10. Euro day 6....ULL in deep south, Jose and Maria all fighting. WAR is stronger this run.
  11. Certainly understand that...you shouldn't have anything to worry about with Maria, except for some rough surf.
  12. Jose looking more healthy this morning...relative. Euro spot on with SLP strength. I think the odds of Jose dissipating to affect the track of Maria is almost nil. Only hope looks to be if it tracks more NE and ridge building in quicker. Slower Maria I guess could help too.
  13. Loaded question...99% of the people on this board want the threat to track , maybe not a cat 5 that destroys everything but lower impact.
  14. Agree...I keep thinking Jose is just going to keep moving NE here, yeah it has a strong ridge to it's NW but the ridging to it's NE isn't that strong and with Euro keeping Jose so strong I thought the tendency of strong lows was to move poleward, not loop back south again. Jose sure loves his loops...
  15. Surprised at how strong Jose stays on the Euro...still fairly stout on day 6. From the 24 hour panels it really doesn't weaken that much the next few days and actuall restrengthens. But yeah, were very lucky to have Jose...otherwise it surely would be good bet that Maria could have EC impacts.