Hoosier Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 The slower trough departure from the northeast looks likely to result in a landfall at least a little farther up the coast than the GFS, despite the Euro's farther south position before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Despite being further southwest landfall may be further east than 0z unless it heads NNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Troff digging in Dakotas this run, that and the ridge building east may save the escape right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 There is something up over eastern maritimes that might be beating down the WAR. Never noticed it on previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Hazey said: Nice right hook...lol. I stand corrected. Might still head for the Carolinas. You said confidently it wasn't going to that this time. 15 minutes ago, TriPol said: I'm not buying what the EURO is selling. 24 hours ago it was OTS, now it's hitting the keys? That's a drastic shift. It's not hitting the keys this run. Any scientific reason you're not buying the Euro? Everyone needs to pick up their game. Otherwise, we do have a banter thread that no one is using . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hazey said: There is something up over eastern maritimes that might be beating down the WAR. Never noticed it on previous runs. Look at the water vapor loops for N.Atlantic http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medville Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Two things a serious one and a not so serious one i have family who reside In the US Virgin Islands. Whats the prognosis, mainly for St Thomas and Water Island? Secondly.... Wow. Sensationalize much? I thought yall would get a kick out of this one. Its kinda over the top. http://sonsoflibertymedia.com/category-6-hurricane-irma-becomes-strongest-hurricane-history-wipe-entire-cities-off-map/ Posting from iPhone. Sorry if formatinf looks sucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 OPs this far out are purely eyecandy, the useful info is the ensembles and how closely they are grouped between the different models, plus looking for trends as each ensemble run advances. Right now everything from the Eastern gulf to the Northeast is still on the table...only thing shrinking potential wise is ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 It's still way too early to rule out an out to sea track. Some minor shifts in the trough over the Midwest, and a flatter ridge could make it so that Irma escapes out. Both the GFS and Euro have a pretty hard right turn from the Bahamas-its just that the GFS has a stronger ridge and the turn is NW instead of N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, medville said: Two things a serious one and a not so serious one i have family who reside In the US Virgin Islands. Whats the prognosis, mainly for St Thomas and Water Island? Secondly.... Wow. Sensationalize much? I thought yall would get a kick out of this one. Its kinda over the top. http://sonsoflibertymedia.com/category-6-hurricane-irma-becomes-strongest-hurricane-history-wipe-entire-cities-off-map/ Posting from iPhone. Sorry if formatinf looks sucky. Way too early to wager an educated guess on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: You said confidently it wasn't going to that this time. It's not hitting the keys this run. Any scientific reason you're not buying the Euro? Everyone needs to pick up their game. Otherwise, we do have a banter thread that no one is using . Yeah, despite changing operational runs the Euro remains well within the envelope of ensemble members. So no reason why 12z is any less likely than 00z last night, or 12z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah, despite changing operational runs the Euro remains well within the envelope of ensemble members. So no reason why 12z is any less likely than 00z last night, or 12z yesterday. I know you know this, but it's worth stating that by definition, being closer in time to the actual event, the most recent model run, barring modeling/data errors, should always be more accurate than any previous version. In the limit the models are very, very accurate 1 hour out, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah, despite changing operational runs the Euro remains well within the envelope of ensemble members. So no reason why 12z is any less likely than 00z last night, or 12z yesterday. To me, the OP Euro past 120 hrs is just another ensemble member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 240... no blocking and OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU4Real Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, TriPol said: Waiting with baited breath for 240. OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, TriPol said: Waiting with baited breath for 240. OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 ...and that's why premature conclusions when watching a model come in are pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 did not the euro show a ots 2 or 3 runs ago...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 The big closed low off of New Foundland is a new feature from previous runs. That's throwing a wrench in any building 500mb heights to the ENE. But the mid-to-upper low over the TN Valley is still resolved. This may have resulted in a slow down to the east, stall or loop off the coast for a while beyond 240 hrs. Anyway, reiterating still a week to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, TriPol said: Waiting with baited breath for 240. OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 NE troff wins. It bombs and stalls this run instead of mysteriously disappearing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 That is a tremendous hard right on the 12z Euro. Ridge just really can't rebuild. It would be interesting to see what percentage of systems get to where this one did in the Bahamas and turn out to sea like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 That system south of Newfoundland is breaking down the ridge. Wasn't on the model yesterday. Shows you how quickly things can change this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Geez, from a Florida keys hit to a Fish. Nothing has a clue where this is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 10 days is a lifetime for computer model runs.. it will change many times before a real clear pattern emerges.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Also note that the Canadian cut off the UL over SE Canada as well but did build in the ridge to bring it inland. So a lot is still there to figure out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 13 minutes ago, Hazey said: There is something up over eastern maritimes that might be beating down the WAR. Never noticed it on previous runs. Yeah every time the Euro has that it goes OTS...... 00Z landfall no storm off SE Canada Latest 12Z run big storm over SE Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 One thing that needs to be pointed out is that the Euro has tended to slow the system down while the GFS speed has verified in the short term. SLP and 500mb verification scores : http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, Windspeed said: The big closed low off of New Foundland is a new feature from previous runs. That's throwing a wrench in any building 500mb heights to the ENE. But the mid-to-upper low over the TN Valley is still resolved. This may have resulted in a slow down to the east, stall or loop off the coast for a while beyond 240 hrs. Anyway, reiterating still a week to go. Interesting thing is this storm seems to remain in the 9-10 day period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hazey said: That system south of Newfoundland is breaking down the ridge. Wasn't on the model yesterday. Shows you how quickly things can change this far out. That trough has so many implications and no way any of this gets solved for another 2/3 days. We're literally walking a fine line here once the storm enters the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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