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RU4Real

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KDIX
  1. NHC posted it on Facebook:
  2. I haven't seen this mentioned yet, but based on recollection the 14 kt motion seems unusually fast for a storm of this caliber.
  3. So I guess we just sit on this run of the op GFS and see what the 0z runs look like.
  4. I think this decision may be largely because the Cuba / No Cuba scenario is somewhat academic for the Keys. As the Gulf Stream pumps through the Florida Strait, it will be met with contrary, long-fetch winds for a couple of days prior to the arrival of the storm. The seas around that area are going to be massive, and steep. There's a very good chance of significant impact from that, alone.
  5. The 12Z turns Irma almost due west between hours 72 and 96.
  6. I've been to Anguilla - it's a beautiful island and the people are wonderful. The homes are, as noted, largely reinforced concrete with sheet aluminum roofing. The roofs will lift but the structures will survive, for the most part. Anguilla's residential population is built largely on higher ground and won't be affected by surge. There are, however, a couple of really great resorts that will probably suffer extreme damage.
  7. When I saw the decay on this model run it made sense, intuitively. Irma would start to have her circulation disrupted by the Appalachians. What I don't know is whether the models account for terrain variables.
  8. Once she gets into central Virginia it looks like the pressure kicks up pretty quickly (showing 979 at 222 hours) and the 10m winds are basically a strong breeze. Still some tropical storm force indicated over the Chesapeake, but the winds inland are all under 35 kts. This run has a really weird look to it.
  9. At 162 the eye is due east of Miami but 30+ kt onshore winds extend up to the OBX. If that were to verify the southern coast would see pretty strong onshore winds for a couple of days, regardless of where the storm center winds up. That's a problem in itself.
  10. 168 - "Right turn, Clyde". The 12Z Euro is slower to lift the high pressure over the Great Lakes.
  11. What does it tell us that current max velocities are already higher than suggested by this graphic?
  12. I'm not comfortable with this analysis. Littoral depth is a key factor in determining where and how a wave breaks but isn't particularly relevant to storm surge. The key elements of storm surge are fetch, direction and duration. All three of those elements are in play, here. A storm surge accompanied by breaking surf is potentially more damaging to structures near the coastline, but the flooding damage caused by surge is independent of breaking surf. For an analog, see the 18.5' of water that flooded into Sayreville NJ during Sandy. It came through Raritan Bay and up the Raritan River - several miles from the ocean and the nearest breaking wave. That flood event was all about fetch, direction and duration.
  13. There's a large portion of western Haiti where 886' is the surface. And not too far inland.
  14. The only thing that matters are the absolute numbers with respect to IAS (Indicated Airspeed). Most commercial jets takeoff at about 150 - 180 mph. They will accelerate very quickly to the 250 mph limit for operations below 10,000'. Flying into a 50 mph headwind will lower their ground speed, but does not affect the ability of the aircraft to operate at all. Weather affects aircraft departure in 3 ways - the ability of the aircraft to actually takeoff and climb, within its safe operating parameters; the ability of the aircraft to return and land at the same airport in the event of a departure emergency; the ability for emergency services to safely operate in the event of a serious event (this last is the reason why commercial aircraft don't operate in near- or zero visibility in spite of the theoretical ability to do so given precision navaids and automation). Regional turboprop aircraft will cease operations well before conditions meet those you describe, because they operate at much lower speeds.