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About TellicoWx

  • Birthday 12/12/1977

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    Tellico Plains, TN

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  1. That analog map has been debunked and is misleading (it's based off outdated research)..research in the last couple years (and ongoing) has shown the QBO is more complex than original research showed. Naval Research Academy, a team of researchers in Singapore, and a couple other teams spread around the global have started presenting their findings at the AMS Conferences. Basic terms is the QBO is broken into 4 categories (with an additional category for those 4). It ties the solar activities effects on the troposphere (which the QBO winds transports down to the ocean surface), east/west winds (and their configuration) basically acts as a shear component to different areas along the MJO...its basically the "top down" approach and begins tying together everything in the atmosphere. The future inclusion of Ocean Modeling into the GFS should include the "top down" method and hopefully will be a major improvement to LR forecasting. The current QBO setup favors capping in the MJO "cold phases" and shear enhancement into the MC. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  2. The QBO has already been affecting the MJO..that sounding is textbook QBOEM (easterlies are the strongest in the upper layers of the atmosphere)..which enhances the MJO into the MC. When viewing the sounding take into account the entire column (like a hodograph). The QBO is one of the negatives so far this winter (and unfortunately will be the rest of the way). The most favorable QBO for cold is QBOEL (strongest easterlies at the bottom of the sounding, with the upper atmosphere going neutral or slight westerlies beginning to take over). Hopefully the QBO takes a slow decent (would place it more favorably for winter 20/21) vs a quick decent that puts us in westerly phases to start next winter. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  3. I think the models are "seeing" the pattern change, but are doing the usual "too quick". If we enter 7 on the MJO at a decent amp (so it can be a primary driver), then I honestly think the change will be closer to the 23-25. We could definitely see some colder temps between now and then, but it will be based off system influence...rather than a true pattern shift. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  4. That's the progression we need, so far everything is lining up fairly well with the BN NOV, AN DEC years I mentioned before Christmas. Most of those winters had a 2-3 week span from late Jan into first half of Feb. Hopefully when (if) it flips, the cold doesn't completely shutdown or suppress the active STJ. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  5. With the look that keeps showing (very shallow cold air bleeding east) and the active STJ..think the sign is starting to point toward a major ice event in the Eastern US (vs snow). Very shallow cold is typically under modeled in progression at long range (especially as it bleeds into OK/TX/AR region) historically, similar to how modeling typically over scours it in CAD areas. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  6. Still got a little snow on the ground up above the house Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  7. Agree completely, basically need the mjo to cycle around into phase 7/8 (promotes +PNA/-NAO) or take our chances in the COD (rely on other drivers to pop a +PNA)...where the MJO currently is headed (high amp 4/5), above normal temps and precip until we get thru it. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  8. When accounting for the 8 to 10 day lag time..that run looked a lot like the MJO. Entering phase 7 now (cold would arrive around 5th or so), stays cold for a few days (until COD), then warmth begins to build in (phase 4/5). Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  9. During a typical winter cycle...DJF, the MJO is only active for around 45% of the season. When the MJO is in the COD it is inactive (very little influence on the pattern). We have been in the inactive period (except for small spike currently)..other drivers have been influencing our pattern. QBO monthly mean has very little actual meaning...QBO is actually divided into 4 base phases..QBOEM, QBOWM, QBOEL, and QBOWL. During winter cycle QBOEM (our current phase) has shown to have the greatest influence on the MJO by enhancing (reawakening) it over the MC (almost exactly how the EMON plays out) 80% of the time. The exact opposite happens when QBOWM occurs. The phases and influence is not determined by one point in the column..its the column as a whole that's analyzed. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  10. Better root for the CFS...EMON won't cut it (QBO argues that the EMON is correct) Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  11. Combo that with a negative bottoming QBO around Sept/Nov winter is starting to look very interesting Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  12. Current QBO phase only analogs for Jan are: 04/05, 97/98, 78/79, 73/74, 55/56...those years were all entry QBOEM Jan years. The only thing the QBO number does is tell you entry/exit points. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  13. As far as QBO..we are entering QBOEM which strongly supports the MJO reawakening in Phase 5..if you want SSW splits, then would need QBOEL (should enter that phase in the fall...good spot for next winter). Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  14. Combine a +AO regime with modeling heading into phase 5 with the MJO (12z GFS looked correct at H5 in the LR for MJO 5), that leaves the SE forum with very few ways out (mainly a deep -NAO needed). You want the modeling to get to Phase 5 sooner rather than later (weak flirting with very low amp Phase 8 is just adding to the delay)...if the later happens then you start putting very end of Jan into early Feb in trouble for a pattern change to cold. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  15. MJO has the most influence on the PNA/NAO...since going into the low amp/COD, the PNA has looked the way it should (no sustainability...looks like a rollercoaster between +/-) thing the GFS has been doing to get it's cold is meandering the TPV away from Alaska/ W. Canada. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk