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About TellicoWx

  • Birthday 12/12/1977

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    Tellico Plains, TN

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  1. This to me draws my attention, the large spread on the teleconnections at mid range (Control can't even keep its self in the 5% range). The Control goes -AO/-EPO/+PNA/-NAO lol. That spread looks like a 46 day EPS. Makes me wonder if we are starting to see any effects of the minor SSWE come into play on the modeling. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  2. Lol, same...knew you did, was more for the newer members as a reference. There's a .1% chance of that OP verifying, until I saw the Chatt it's up to 50% lol jk. Would be Jeff's luck. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  3. Pivotal does a way better job with its algorithms
  4. Crossville EPS...has a sprinkling of everything from Miller As to Cutters
  5. Exactly, if PNA can't hold to assist the EPO, then its wasted Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  6. Yeah the teleconnections for that time frame has been interesting, think the OPs are starting to clue in. Even with a neutral/slight + AO..a crashed EPO can buckle the cold south...sprinkle in blocked pattern over the Atlantic to slow an system's and things should be interesting. Temps here normally lag the crashing EPO by a few days (unless the PNA doesn't cooperate). Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
  7. 12z Euro has trouble written all over it with a 1043 parked over the NE in a region with 1° temps at the end. CAD would be impressive with that setup
  8. The column soundings and UVVs have looked good up your way today from the ones I've seen..hope you bust high tonight.
  9. Upstream radar looking fairly healthy for you NW facing guys.
  10. Not surprised the OPs are flopping around so much..with such a large spread in all the teleconnections in LR modeling, hopefully we can start narrowing the spread soon. Right now I would just go with climo and enso as a base until it's sorted out some lol.
  11. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the NW flow areas over perform tonight...column is saturated thru 700 and with the ULL passing overhead, the UVV looks good. Decent vertical lift to go along with the orographic enhancement.
  12. You didn't happen to hijack the teleconnects on the LR EPS today did you lol? AO mean has been slowly stepping down the last 3 runs for Dec heading into Jan (now in the 0 to +0.5 range for monthly average). If the trend continues and we can get into the 0 to -0.5 range, there is 10 timeframes that fall into that area. Once you start eliminating the ones that don't closely resemble QBO, Nino 3.4...etc the list narrows to 3. Here's an overview on one of the 3...Nino 3.4 (.8), AO (-0.24), QBO (1.69), PNA (-.5), NAO (-1..outside the range, but models keep hinting at one), EPO (negative regime DJF)..and featured a SSW split.....Dec 1977. Thought it was funny 1977 was brought up, then when the teleconnections came in and was looking at different similar analogs, 1977 pops up (first time so far). I usually start with the AO mean (if don't have a cold source, rest dont amount to much), then comb thru every other indice and trend to narrow the list. Still on the fence for this winter, but the analog years have been getting better last few runs (was spitting out only torch years 2011, 2006, 1951 examples). Last couple runs have come up with some better ones like 1977...1986 was an interesting ones last run. Mainly cause it is remembered for the record cold, but up until Dec 20, 1986 TYS was actually AN temp wise...then the bottom completely fell out.
  13. If the GEFS is anywhere in the right ballpark on the EPO, a big time shot of cold is about to drop into the central/eastern US. The Pacific is our biggest driver and can overcome a not favorable AO/NAO. -AO/-NAO can help lock the EPO in for longer periods of time. Last year with the strengthening going on with the PV (QBO rising), it would have taken a serious -EPO/-NAO regime to dislodge a decent lobe south. With the opposite happening so far entering winter (QBO in decline), I don't think the modeling will be anywhere as bad. Just don't need the QBO to stall or start rising.
  14. Great discussion everyone, I also find the part about a possible SSW event intriguing cause it lines up with the two years I'm looking into...2002 and 2004. I like using the top down method for the atmosphere and looking longer range. Since 1948, only 02 and 04 are close to where the QBO is currently at as far as reading plus trend. Both years also were close to a neutral state ONI, granted this year we are closer to actual 0 than those 2 (.6 and .9). Both 02 and 04 featured a wintertime SSW event as well. But that is where the similarities end for 02 and 04. While both started close to avg for the month of Dec temp wise, Jan and Feb went in complete opposites. 2002 went cold for both, while 2004 torched to a degree. The AO/NAO combo was complete opposites as well. The divergence in those two setups, is the SST near Alaska, warm pool there assisted the ridging along the west coast in being a predominant feature. While 04 was a cold pool state allowing the cold to stay bottled over Canada and warm Pacific air to flood the continental US. We are in a warm SST currently (ridge promotions), QBO has been falling (trend is more important than reading) which acts as a primer for dislodging the PV. If the NAO can sync up with the ridging, we could definitely see the cold drop coast to coast at some point. Those SST off Alaska is a big key for us and I don't think LR modeling has that completely worked out. So with the current setup, I think Dec will end up close to avg, with a BN Jan, and slightly BN Feb (based on fairly good odds of a weak/mod SSW event coupled with the SST). If we lose the warm pool and the EPO doesn't go moderately negative, the keep the shorts handy lol. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk