OceanStWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, RU848789 said: I know you know this, but it's worth stating that by definition, being closer in time to the actual event, the most recent model run, barring modeling/data errors, should always be more accurate than any previous version. In the limit the models are very, very accurate 1 hour out, lol. Yes and no. In the short term yes the newer models are generally more accurate. But getting beyond day 5, minor perturbations can result in huge differences downstream. So a 12z storm out in fantasyland may not be more accurate than last night's 00z run. And we are dealing with model fantasyland right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Hasn't the Euro ensembles had more members OTS than GEFS? Probably never happen, but would be nice if the OP's models would end at 120 and ensembles the rest the way out. Would end a lot of the hype on social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Interesting thing is this storm seems to remain in the 9-10 day period Well it's really just mad speculation beyond 240 anyway but the had the model continued it may have very well stalled Irma somewhere between Carolina and Bermuda. An OTS would likely have evolved out of that besides, but it may have gotten interesting. Again, pure speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 33 minutes ago, salbers said: IMERG animation here of past 7 days precip rate: https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/details.cgi?aid=4285 Great site. Thanks for sharing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 9 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That is a tremendous hard right on the 12z Euro. Ridge just really can't rebuild. It would be interesting to see what percentage of systems get to where this one did in the Bahamas and turn out to sea like that. That's what I was wondering too, this run makes what Floyd did seem like a gently sloping recurve lol. With the way this thing was plowing west you'd think that the laws of inertia alone would plow it into Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 There is no storm in the GFS ens that the Euro is showing...The model truce has been broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yes and no. In the short term yes the newer models are generally more accurate. But getting beyond day 5, minor perturbations can result in huge differences downstream. So a 12z storm out in fantasyland may not be more accurate than last night's 00z run. And we are dealing with model fantasyland right now. Intuitively this makes a great deal of sense. Look at it this way...... a run difference of 12 hours 9 days out is much less than a run difference of 12 hours 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: That's exactly what I've been doing the last few days. Waiting for the rest of the members to come out.. I think the EPS mean will come back west of the OP closer to the Carolinas. That cutoff over New England day 8-10 looks overdone on the OP weakening the ridge too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Yeah every time the Euro has that it goes OTS...... 00Z landfall no storm off SE Canada Latest 12Z run big storm over SE CanadaYup another key player just entered the field. Not unusual to have storms blow up in the gulf of St. Lawrence this time of year but the euro has it kinda popping out of nowhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Well it's really just mad speculation beyond 240 anyway but the had the model continued it may have very well stalled Irma somewhere between Carolina and Bermuda. An OTS would likely have evolved out of that besides, but it may have gotten interesting. Again, pure speculation. hmmm what you described sounds a bit like Felix 1995. Another Cat 4 system that send the trend for the season for east coast storms that teased but never made landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Hasn't the Euro ensembles had more members OTS than GEFS? Probably never happen, but would be nice if the OP's models would end at 120 and ensembles the rest the way out. Would end a lot of the hype on social media. I was thinking exactly that- and this should apply to the GFS too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: There is no storm in the GFS ens that the Euro is showing...The model truce has been broken. The Euro beat the GFS and every GEFS member numerous times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, Hazey said: Yup another key player just entered the field. Not unusual to have storms blow up in the gulf of St. Lawrence this time of year but the euro has it kinda popping out of nowhere. Canadian also has it although it did not deter it from building in the ridge and bringing her inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 21 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That is a tremendous hard right on the 12z Euro. Ridge just really can't rebuild. It would be interesting to see what percentage of systems get to where this one did in the Bahamas and turn out to sea like that. Not that far south. I've seen it from storms like Felix and Emily which approached the coast much further north but that far south you need everything imaginable to go right for it to somehow miss the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Euro was very close with a coastal runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 14 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Yes and no. In the short term yes the newer models are generally more accurate. But getting beyond day 5, minor perturbations can result in huge differences downstream. So a 12z storm out in fantasyland may not be more accurate than last night's 00z run. And we are dealing with model fantasyland right now. Good point. Actually, I meant to say the newer models should generally be more accurate, not always (I was also thinking more in the limit case, near the event). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, Wow said: Canadian also has it although it did not deter it from building in the ridge and bringing her inland. Maybe the GFS has it later during the run? Could be that the reason the Euro has it interfering with the track of the storm is because the storm is slower on the Euro. If it was faster like the GFS it wouldn't have enough time to affect the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 23 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Latest 12Z run big storm over SE Canada I am having a very hard time seeing this work out realistically. Realistically, the GFS and to a lesser extent the CMC look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Not that far south. I've seen it from storms like Felix and Emily which approached the coast much further north but that far south you need everything imaginable to go right for it to somehow miss the US. Felix 1995 and Emily 1993? I was thinking of Felix when someone mentioned that the storm might stall or loop east of Cape Hatteras past 240 hrs on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro was very close with a coastal runner. Still some dancing going on with the models. We might not know where this thing goes until it is in the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, SN_Lover said: I am having a very hard time seeing this work out realistically. Realistically, the GFS and to a lesser extent the CMC look better. The EURO Ens probably will look nothing like the Op because it's such a bizarre track. I'm guessing there may still be two camps. We may see more members in the OTS range this run with another camp into FL/GA/SC. I'm guessing there will be few or any into LI/SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 This far out neither model is 100% right, each models ensembles are just a tool and carry a certain weight. Putting all your stock in one models output is like a carpenter going to work with nails but no hammer. Climatology data also has to be sprinkled in with a little bit of analog data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I would be leery of the Euro solution. Just because you need the middle Atlantic ridge to stall and amplify while the Midwest ridge impinges in forcing the closed low cutoff solution. Just so many things having to break that way for it to happen like the Euro depicts. Any more progressive with either ridge and you build a ridge over top of the hurricane blocking the outlet OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The EURO Ens probably will look nothing like the Op because it's such a bizarre track. I'm guessing there may still be two camps. We may see more members in the OTS range this run with another camp into FL/GA/SC. I'm guessing there will be few or any into LI/SNE Early look seems to be a couple of hard turns, but a nice cluster staying westerly longer than 00z. Of course those definitely bring interaction with Cuba and Haiti into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I'll take a wild guess here . I'll mix the GFS + The EURO we will have a coastal hugger making landfall between North Bergen NJ and cape cod . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, Stebo said: I would be leery of the Euro solution. Just because you need the middle Atlantic ridge to stall and amplify while the Midwest ridge impinges in forcing the closed low cutoff solution. Just so many things having to break that way for it to happen like the Euro depicts. Any more progressive with either ridge and you build a ridge over top of the hurricane blocking the outlet OTS. Yeah its kind of a one off thing the Euro throws out there ever 5th run lol....realistically there is fairly scary agreement last run not withstanding between the GFS/Euro...if they continue to threaten the Carolinas through tomorrow I will go buy a generator, and water and fill all the gas cans etc....if this still looks likely by Tues/Wed and the news starts really hyping it things are gonna get bad. No fuel, no water, grocery store with bare shelves etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: EPS way west of OP near Florida. That's probably a overstatement. The Op is right in the middle of the distribution at the latitude of MIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Early look seems to be a couple of hard turns, but a nice cluster staying westerly longer than 00z. Of course those definitely bring interaction with Cuba and Haiti into play. Most of the HURR models aren't that close to those islands so I'm not so sure about the Euro showing that although it IS In the nhc cone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Most of the HURR models aren't that close to those islands so I'm not so sure about the Euro showing that although it IS In the nhc cone I know intensity is the toughest thing to forecast, but the EPS does the bulk of the deepening in and north of the Bahamas anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: No overstatement. I'm looking at the Irma spaghetti plots right now. The Op passes within a couple hundred miles of MIA then turns north. That is right in the middle of the EPS members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.