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Major Hurricane Irma

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25 minutes ago, cstrunk said:

It seems to have that "look" on IR already.

I was just going to say that. This should have no problem ramping up. Most models are seeing that in there output. 

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11 minutes ago, Hazey said:

I was just going to say that. This should have no problem ramping up. Most models are seeing that in there output. 

What's the foward speed on this thing? It might just be the IR image but that thing looks like it's bookin it! 

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What's the foward speed on this thing? It might just be the IR image but that thing looks like it's bookin it! 



Three hour intervals between frames in that gif make it appear to be moving faster. But it's a steady 10-12 kts W, or just S of W.

Looking out a few days ahead, some dry mid-levels exists across the MDR northwest of Irma; however, the tropical storm has developed rather quickly and may be able to fight that off if it establishes a robust core. Mid-level easterly flow behind Irma should remain in a moist envelope, especially south and southeast of the circulation. As long as any mid-to-upper westerly flow remains at a good distance northwest to Irma's circulation, the system should be able to traverse the MDR and intensify slowly/steadily.

Speaking of SAL, it has decreased some over the past week and should decrease further. A mid-to-upper level low and trough is forecast to form and move south from the Azores as ridging spreads west. That will likely further weaken northeasterly flow and halt the SAL even further. I don't know how long this will persist, but I do expect the overall pattern to be more favorable for Cape Verde and MDR systems this September than in recent years.




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30 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


What is unique about this storm seems to be the jog to the SSW (or WSW) that is eventually going to make. That would put it in a zone with better odds.

That jog puts it in the 30-40% region, and that jog is modeled very well because of the ridge that gets forced with the remnants of Harvey and the low near the Canadian Maritimes. Irma will slide right underneath that ridge. Only caveat could be a weakness to the NW of the low that could draw Irma to the right, though only the GFS has that weakness there.

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5 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Nah only 903mb. A slight breeze...lol

Yeah luckily for Bermuda its only a 937 when it hit them......:o, plenty of runs left to go the GFS will probably have it back in the GOM on tonights runs.....

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'Tis the season---once again---this is a great place to catch the 'drift' of where I can start looking at 'where to focus'. I'm watching --- as to whether or not --- Irma tracks south of Cuba (in one way, shape or form). If so... batten down the hatches here and where I live. I will say this though --- "you really can't flood a swamp".  And I'm at 22' MSL with 14.16" of rainfall for the month of August so far! Panther Run's no where close to 'cart path only'. Spectacular day here today---Cheers

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The models are very bullish in bringing Irma to major status in the long range. Track is still very uncertain, as it should be at this point but it's looking more like there will be a beast of a storm prowling around somewhere in the Caribbean area in 8-10 days. 

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10 minutes ago, Hazey said:

The models are very bullish in bringing Irma to major status in the long range. Track is still very uncertain, as it should be at this point but it's looking more like there will be a beast of a storm prowling around somewhere in the Caribbean area in 8-10 days. 

Not surprising. Conditions get very favorable after a few days. Looking like a classic CV buzzsaw.

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Euro through 120 is faster, weaker, and further south.  Short term strengthening could be the key to track - as the midatlantic ridging doesn't look wildly dissimilar between the models.

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If this hit somewhere as a major it would have only spent one cycle on the list with back to back retirements of the same letter. I'm trying to remember the last storm to do that.  I don't think it was long ago 

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17 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

If this hit somewhere as a major it would have only spent one cycle on the list with back to back retirements of the same letter. I'm trying to remember the last storm to do that.  I don't think it was long ago 

Rita and Stan in 2005 plus in 2004 you had Ivan and Jeanne, back to back years of back to back retirements.

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ECMWF continues to extend ample 500mb ridging into western Atlantic. You'll notice an upper trough or mid-to-upper low that comes down out of the Azores. Also a strong trough digs into the interior US Great Lakes and Midwest. This screams increasing heights and an amplified ridge from central Atlantic over Bermuda. Irma will likely take a south of west track near to or just north of the northern lesser Antilles based on that steering flow. The big question for the Bahamas and CONUS is if the interior US trough digs off the coast or lifts and allows ridging to flatten into the Southeast US. Way too far out and could change drastically in the coming days. But the setup will at least get Irma into the western Atlantic. Where does it go from there?

ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_fh48-168.gif

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The 12z Euro delays the formation of a new western gulf storm just enough so that it gets missed by the eastern trough.  The storm then sinks deep down into the Bay of Campeche.  This scenario would theoretically help open the door for Irma(assuming the trough can lift out) vs previous runs which showed the gulf system being pulled into the northeast gulf as Irma approached the Bahamas.

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1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

This doesn't look good.

[IMG]

 

Verbatim the track and forward speed is a monster ACE producer. Holy smokes...

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