StormChazer

Certainly the best way to avoid disappointment! Lol

When should we start talking seriously about snow chances on Thurs/Fri? Gfs and nam seem to think this thing can drop a decent amount of snow somewhere in OK.

And it'll melt off by the afternoon, but while it falls it'll be a headache.

Long range NAM picking up on it a little bit as well. GFS and NAM have the low in similar places.

If only...Hahah. GFS was kinda right last time though XD, I'll believe it if it's within 20 hours....

I will say this much, the HRRR is showing a trend after each run of inching the precip shied north. They also said up to 1-2 inches of sleet or snow. 1 inch of sleet would wreck the roads.

I'm not going to lie, this confuses me.....there's not a single model projecting snow or even much of any precipitation for that matter...

So....do we owe the GFS an apology?

NAM3K and HRRR are the only things at this point giving me any lasting hope.

NAM is running, let's see the prognosis.

You would think, but this one felt like such a slam dunk to get a least 3 inches. To have it disappear before our very eyes just 48 hours out is the worst. I'm not writing it off yet, the sampled data could turn things around for us, but it's definitely not looking great right now.

So the way I see it, is the storm will be sampled this evening, so perhaps the 00Z runs will contain sampled information, if not, the 6Z and 12Z tomorrow will. If those don't change the trend that's going on, then I'm sticking a fork in this and developing some trust issues for the next few weeks. Good news out of all of this, is this is early in the season to be getting chances for awesome snowstorms(even if they don't pan out), so we still have 3 more months of this to go.

The storm system won’t be over land until this evening is my understanding.

My powers of deduction and line drawing would like to think that 4-6 inch band continues up into the Tulsa metro...

I've spoken to two local TV mets today and both seem pretty un-wavered by the runs last night/this morning. Seem to still think Tulsa gets in on somewhere between 3-6 inches, they expect models will jog back north a little bit, so I guess we'll wait and see if they're right.