StormChazer

Once again.....looking like Tulsa and NW AR barely miss out on one. going to be 34 degrees and heavy rain, and that'll just piss me right off lol.

I know......

My interest is piqued.

I'm thinking this last half of January is our best shot for the winter to get something substantial. I've got a good feeling.

This Thurs-Sat system has the makings of something great IF we can get the cold air to stick around. I say great, but if we get anything it would be an ice storm. But you know what? Give it to me.

18Z NAM Deformation zone smack centered over Tulsa.

I think the NAM is following in the Euro and HRRR's trends.

I mean, that’s really far south.

Also has Tulsa getting .2 inches of freezing rain. If the NWS buys this run, and the HRRR continues to reflect it, I think they'll expand the winter storm watch.

LOCK. THIS. IN.

Last night's run for reference.

12Z Euro is reflecting the 16Z HRRR right now.

What I'm getting at is, here is the 12Z HRRR run and the latest 16Z both at 4AM tomorrow morning. In the 12Z it appears that it's already beginning to wrap up to pump out the totals in N OK, but in the 16Z it's practically entirely in NW TX. What does this mean, if anything at all? Or am I obsessing, lol.

Question for those more meteorologically inclined. What is it going to take to eek that deformation band more east? A more negatively tilted trough? more southern storm track? Etc Just trying to figure out what I should be on the lookout for when watching the HRRR.

It's so close to Tulsa it HURTS. I'm just praying that when the storm develops that deformation band is just 20 miles closer....I don't need to be dead center with 6+ inches, I just want 3. If I didn't have a 6 month old that hardly sleeps, I'd just get in my car and chase some snow! To think....I could chase tornadoes and then snow just hours apart in the same geographical area!