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aggiegeog

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About aggiegeog

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KTYR
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  • Location:
    Lindale, TX

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  1. Thursday and Thursday night maybe into Friday morning will be wild across Texas with strong storms and heavy rain ahead of the low and blizzard conditions on the backside. The sweet spot for snow among all models seems to be east of Abilene, but really anywhere north of I-10 has at least a slight chance for some snow mixing in.
  2. Now looking like we may have an I-20 Special for Saturday afternoon. An upper low traversing from south of Big Bend and NE along I-20 will bring a narrow band of heavy snow to west Texas and likely into N TX possibly extending into NE TX during the day Saturday. Temps become marginal as it heads east though dynamic cooling from the intense upper low could overcome that for brief periods of time.
  3. The surface low is just too far away and the upper low too tight for areas much NW of I-44 to see much snow out of this. The storm will very likely continue trending south as is typically the case. I will almost always trust the NAM for near term forecasting of upper lows and Arctic fronts, but even it is likely too far north with things. An upper low entering in So Cal will almost always dig south before ejecting. Watch for the upper low to slow just a tad more and if it does it will be able to tap into the northern stream energy more. Saturday afternoon could be wild from Abilene north to Ardmore and over to Fort Smith. Areas near this line could see 4-6 inches with up to a foot possible where local bands set up. There is a ton of energy to be sampled today and we should know a lot more by tonight. PS it is really sad how terrible the GFS is at modeling weather in its home country. This has been a pretty easy forecast honestly for over a week now. All about pattern recognition which is why we still need good weather forecasters and not just model readers.
  4. Models keep trending towards N TX. I am holding firm in my forecast since day one on this event of the best snow falling along I-44 and down towards just west of Abilene.
  5. We are still looking at a multi inch rain event for much of the state with heavy snow in the Panhandle. Things end as snow showers for all north of I-20
  6. The models are going the direction that was expected with temps trending colder and the system trending south. I expect the 18Z NAM to lay down some good snow totals over DFW late Saturday.
  7. After Christmas we will see the most blocking we have seen since 09/10 so that should hopefully allow us to see more occasions where temps end up cold.
  8. For N and NE TX the upcoming event looks like a cold rain with maybe some flurries Saturday night into Sunday morning. West of a Abilene to WF line there could be some snow or mixed precip on Friday. Along the Red River there could be some accumulating snow on Saturday and into Saturday night. Rain amounts could reach 6 inches locally between I-10 and I-20 east of I-35.
  9. Still looks to me that we are still going to see south shifts in the precip areas for the late week storm. Surface lows that track from the TX coast to LA do not typically drop precip much into OK. The GFS shows the mid level low way NW of the surface low, but that does not seem like how these have acted in the past. I expect widespread precip on Friday all over the Southern Plains as the front pushes into the STJ. It will be a now cast to see how quickly the cold air comes to see who gets ice, snow or heavy rain. Then by Sat morning the surface low takes over ending precip west of a Abilene to SE OK line while pulling down more cold air so the backside of the precip should lay down a few inches of snow east of the line I stated above.
  10. Looking at the Euro ensembles, next weekend could feature winter storm for Texas with over half of the members showing some snow in either N or NE TX and close to a quarter of the members showing greater than three inches somewhere in N or NE TX. A few members have close to a foot along the Red River. Ice is also possible especially west of DFW early on in this event. Beyond the snow possibility of heavy rain with some members highlighting 6+ inches locally over E TX. A huge chunk of the state should receive over half an inch.
  11. In the NM mountains, resorts will likely see 6-12" of snow this weekend with another round of possibly even heavier snow late next week.
  12. Storms tonight then a nice weekend then a trailing shortwave on Monday. It would not take much amplification for this trailing shortwave to spit some flurries over N and N TX on Monday. Then most of next week looks cool with multiple morning freezes. Rain return Friday into Saturday and maybe Sunday. Much of the state looks to see 1-3" of rain from this. Up in OK and KS this could begin as a decent ice storm. In TX there could be a changeover to snow late Saturday. The 8th is going to be a very interesting day to watch on the models, but the 3rd is also sneaky.
  13. This system will bring some heavy snow to the NM mountains.
  14. As I have been saying for a month next week has potential. The -EPO will supply the cold and we will have a strong shortwave moving into So Cal next week. If the low can stay south until east of El Paso we all stand a good chance.
  15. The system around the 8th has real potential for snow in Texas if it can stay along or south of the US/MX border. Otherwise it is a good rain event with show in NM and NW TX. The -EPO should supply the cold so it all depends on the track of the low. If it can cross Texas as a closed low the or chances for snow and significant rain increase a lot. Following this storm temps will moderate as we get into a zonal flow for a bit before hopefully cooling down for Christmas.
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