Welcome to American Weather

MJV

Members
  • Content count

    15
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About MJV

  • Birthday 02/15/1960

Contact Methods

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KAPF
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Panther Run
  • Interests
    Retired weather forecaster National Weather Service

Recent Profile Visitors

312 profile views
  1. We are all safe and back 100% to pre-Irma conditions. Our community experienced the eastern eyewall for the entire duration of Irma's northward trek through southwest FL. A total of 3-4 hours. Post-Andrew construction was largely untouched by these tremendous winds, but 1000s of live oaks were downed. Ave Maria's water treatment plant held firm and we never lost pressure. We had no flooding of residences. Unfortunately, others in wood-framed housing around us (all the smaller towns along US29 and state route 82) in Collier and Lee counties are in great need of assistance! Power was back in 50-60% of the residences in Immokalee as of Friday afternoon. People are streaming from all parts of Florida to help with the cleanup and restoration.

  2. 3.58" storm total precip.Had 2.24" on Saturday, and checked the gage this morning---1.34" since midnight. We still have power here in Ave Maria. Anticipated to be west of the eye since Tuesday--- but looks like we end up east of the eye! Glad I retired. Can't get things right in the medium range forecast anymore. PS---our entire community is advertised as certified post-Andrew code cat5 construction, so we slept like logs. Barely knew it was blowing outside. We'll soon find out during the next 12 hours---how solid it is firsthand. Nice to get emails/texts from old work colleagues. Our current conditions are similar to Miami (where the weather channel is). Sorry, we don't have a webcam or live feed for those to watch! And the only time I'm standing sideways is when our Husky needs a break outside. ,) Cheers from Panther Run
  3. We have made all necessary preparations for Irma's approach. And we now will watch and wait for Irma's Sunday arrival and departure. We decided we can do more in the long run by staying here, even if the path of the storm will be very close. I anticipate the eye to pass off to our east, and this will be better for us. But my thoughts go out to everyone who will be greatly impacted by this particular hurricane, no matter where 'she' decides to go.
  4. Will start prepping for 'Irma' on Tuesday. GFS/ECMWF looked well enough in 'synch' for me---for significant winds on Sunday (850mb vort/wind fields) around here (northeastern Collier County FL). Still plenty of time to batten down the hatches___and then wait for its big northward turn! That turn is what concerns me the most.
  5. 'Tis the season---once again---this is a great place to catch the 'drift' of where I can start looking at 'where to focus'. I'm watching --- as to whether or not --- Irma tracks south of Cuba (in one way, shape or form). If so... batten down the hatches here and where I live. I will say this though --- "you really can't flood a swamp". And I'm at 22' MSL with 14.16" of rainfall for the month of August so far! Panther Run's no where close to 'cart path only'. Spectacular day here today---Cheers
  6. From a synoptic-scale perspective---Harvey's appearance on satellite looks more like an occlusion now with the water vapor imagery showing good impingement/interaction along the northern through south-southwestern flanks (counterclockwise speaking). The new convection sprouting along the southern flanks is finally drifting eastward and dew points are falling behind the pseudo-cold front south of the surface low. Another clue to the drier air intrusion--- note the strong demarcation of the precipitation shield wrapping around the northern flanks of its circulation. As the NHC clearly noted in their late evening update---there are no surface reports of winds near tropical storm force. BUT---Harvey IS now a name that identifies with the public...so holding on to low-level center and track 'should' keep the situational awareness very high anywhere and everywhere. It's probably maintaining just enough warm-core character 'technically' --- and gusty convective downburst wind >34kts going forward or higher (tornado/waterspouts/squalls etc) but the low-level center has been stripped clean and my guess is that the inner core (or swirl) has and will have little to do with precipitation coverage --- even if it's surface low does drift into the GoMex. The best chance it (the center) has--- is if the entire trough could somehow become negatively-tilted. But that's a big stretch now with that pseudo-front is racing eastward off the coast between CRP and BRO. What's amazing to me is---the situational awareness expressed by the met community (the threats were spelled out I think rather well)---BUT just seemed to fail connecting somehow/somewhere with Harris County proper. It's as if Houston had the reaction of a person that just had a bucket of cold Gatorade dumped on its back. Stunned surprise initially, then shock, then a sense of reality. That really just happened? total surprise. If they were caught off guard---it had to have been by the fact that the core winds and the storm surge were well south of them. The rainfall graphics are never perfect prog in these dynamic patterns but didn't think they failed to offer a picture of the developing scenario.
  7. 92L-related rainfall so far today 1.55" as of 200pm EDT---since start of event (Wed aft 8/23) ---6.05" here @ Panther Run GC. Getting about 1-1.5" a day, so water's draining off at a decent rate. No flooding. Canals and retention ponds heading into Naples this morning filling up though.
  8. I may see the glass as 'half full' here---the hurricane continues to throw out PRE-rainfall bands well north of the center...and although the NHC's modus operandi (my opinion here) likes to chase the circulation center for days inland, my experiences tell me that the upper 2/3rds of this system will continually be 'lopped off' through time and race north and northeastward---ie weak steering currents or not. The models are dumb sometimes). Too much spin and a dry-slot like trajectory entraining into the west and southwest quads of a slow-moving system). If the downstream environment over ne TX, nw La and maybe se OK (the Ouachita range) remains conditionally unstable---those rainbands translate to 'tropical system' amounts downwind that mirror and/or exceed the amounts near the core. And yes, possibly the 'center' of Harvey sits and spins in se TX like the guidance wants everyone to believe...but off goes the rest of the moisture to parts 'unknown' in the model data. A medium range forecast (day3-5) --- would be watching when/which runs start generating downstream vorticity towards the middle-third of the MS river valley and srn Ozarks. That'd be the first set of forecast clues---that the system is going to be shearing out aloft (above 850mbs) through time. Otherwise, advertising 'little to no movement" easily is the safe bet. PS... I wish over the last 15 years---I had written down each specific case (the names of storms) when a remnant hurricane (that's inland) totally 'rocked' the flow pattern downstream. Wasn't captured by the models in a very timely fashion---and the precip forecasts blew up. I'm sure there are many in this thread that can name a few, in Texas alone, that fit the bill. I know the east coast had it's share. Even forecasters in Montana (when I worked in NWS EKA) looked for the tropical connection (5-7 days in advance) with systems approaching Baja. When things start changing the official forecast track---that's usually when the NHC will 'coordinate" a hand-off of the system to WPC--my experiences here dictated a glass half-full mindset ;(p but that's a whole different 'can of worms' for another time. Cheers
  9. I hope Jeff Piotrowski's okay there at that car wash in Lockport TX! My word. I met Jeff in Tulsa when I was an intern there and he was chasing the Catoosa tornado. The guys called him 'Service J'. I get it... he wants to be in the eye. I get THAT, as does Cantore etc. But they are my age...50+ WHY? LOL play golf, hang by the pool, be with your kids and grandkids. It's just a hurricane. There will be many more. Everyone wants to understand why there's lightning with this one. Who cares---the winds are 100mph+. What I would care about is WHY---the system sits where it is, if it does, for so long? TELL ME WHY. I don't want to know why there's lightning Jim Cantore. Really? True story example---We had a system, a benign one, approach the Texas coast as a low-level circulation and the NHC forecasts it to come inland within 24-36 hours. And I'm working the medium range desk at WPC---and I say to them (not gonna mention names here) on the conference call---"so where do you think it'll be on DAY 3 (the end of their forecast window)---and what do they say to me---"IT"S INLAND on day 1, you do what YOU want with it". Funny story---it never CAME inland. Long story short---ask the NHC, TWC, ACCU WX, (whomever) WHY this system 'sits' where it does. And doesn't head towards SAT/DAL, SHV, and momentum alone, etc? Maybe this is more for the 'forecast' section---but that's where the focus really needs to be--- where the 'monster rainfall' is headed next. IF they say it's going to SIT on the TX coast, it's asking the why question that "I really got tired of" ASKING.
  10. 92L's dropped 2.93" over Ave Maria in the last 72 hours (as of 830am this morning). To me anyway, the satellite presentation is showing signs of organization---even though the atmosphere over sw FL has been 'worked over' pretty well. Ensemble guidance depiction of this disturbance--- for a track into the far southeastern Gulf and then an exit northeastward into the Atlantic Basin --- appears to have been a decent solution. At this point in time---no reason to dismiss a solution that takes a track across the Gulf Stream and north-northeastward along the US East Coast. PS---problem I always dealt with in the medium range forecast process (when at WPC)---was where a "perfect prog timing" of a tropical's intensification could be taken verbatim vs. 'thrown out'. Especially beyond the day 4-5 time frame. The way 'Harvey' morphed is a good example of that forecast process and I would think that 92L's got a few surprises left too. Nice to see many others (like SteveVa and others in this entire discussion stream) being 'vigilant' and observant with these disturbance. Glad I'm a part of this and can get a good feel of what's going on---based on what others are seeing and writing. I don't actually have to 'work at it' anymore---thanks everyone!
  11. looking to the west of Ave Maria FL 8/17/17
  12. Looking west from home---8/17/17
  13. Hopefully, this 92L continues to track at it's current pace and --- goes into the GoMex --- and moves just fast enough to keep the qpfs under 2-3 inches with maybe some brief tropical storm force gusts (convective downdrafts) at best. If it indeed moves thru the Florida Straits. Nothing more. At the house, have had 17.16" in June, 8.40" in July and 8.70" so far in August. Another 1-3" --- we could handle...much more than that in a 24-36 hr period, would make for a sloppy mess here in Ave Maria.
  14. The guys I worked with on the medium range desk at WPC did carry a wave off the se coast of Fla day 7---but it's just a carry over from Tuesday's 1pm call with HNC. But it makes sense since the ensemble guidance carries something our way. The day crew (at WPC) actually will be the ones who must coordinate synoptic features with the NHC specialist. You may already know this---maybe not. These calls are usually between the medium range desk, NHC and Navy Norfolk...every day during the summer (hurricane season). It was our ONLY chance to 'help' the NHC get the path going in the 'right' direction beyond their day 5 forecast window. Some of those conversations lend to some funny stories (a la "Sandy' and Gustav). For another time I guess---I'm new to this whole "everybody's got a weather forecast opinion" forum.
  15. try www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/realtime/current and in 4-5 days---maybe we get something in the Atlantic Basin---that makes a serious run this way. That's a nice solution---though.