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About JasonOH

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  • Birthday 11/20/1996

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    Norman, OK
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  1. This is a great twitter thread about tomorrow and dynamics in general.
  2. 45% Sig Wind driven Moderate for tomorrow.
  3. Mean wind isn’t on the hodograph (In that sounding) so storms should naturally turn right. The VBV doesn’t necessarily inhibit tornado genesis unless it’s below 750mb. I have noticed that on a lot of violent tornado days there is a bit (not a ton) of VBV at just above 700mb.
  4. What BMX said is very true. The QLCS comes through too early Saturday for heating to be maximized with current timing so warm sector updrafts may not be robust enough to survive. This a could result in a very impressive QLCS and I personally think (Currently) damaging winds/embedded tors are the greatest threat Saturday.
  5. One thing to keep an eye on is the mean wind being very close to or on the hodograph. That will cause storms to have trouble turning right and starting to strongly rotate.
  6. Note that the instruments could be calibrated slightly different which would result in slightly different readings. Dropsondes should be around 912-914mb since extrap tends to be a bit low.
  7. Aviation and shipping are still in knots and wind affects them more than people day to day. Impressive pass. Doing the typical 10% deduction from flight level winds to get SFC results in 135kt/155mph.
  8. There’s not a double wind maxima showing yet on any passes so not an EWRC yet. Also, I haven’t seen any double eyeball structures on the morning microwave satellite passes.
  9. NOAA2 only got 127kt SFMR unflagged in the NE eywall. It got 139kt max flight level so I feel like 125-130kt is where it’s at. 140130 2602N 07311W 7523 02098 9565 +156 //// 117117 136 127 042 01 140200 2603N 07311W 7531 02181 9677 +135 //// 117136 139 122 058 01
  10. How an SFMR works: https://www.prosensing.com/crb-product/sfmr/ TLDR: It uses brightness temperature at the surface to calculate wind speed.
  11. Not showing as flagged on Tropical Tidbits. VDM will confirm whether it’s flagged or not when we get that. It seems anomalously high to me compared to the pass NOAA just made through the NW eyewall.
  12. AF302 just got 131kt flight level, 141kt SFMR in the NE eyewall. 144kt SFMR was flagged
  13. ADT from NOAA and UW CIMSS both still under CI#6.
  14. I'm not a modeling expert, but from my understanding the grid spacing in global models is too large to accurately resolve the minimum pressure. This results in the scaling issues mentioned above. The overall storm is modeled well enough that the globals can handle the track.