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About JasonOH

  • Birthday 11/20/1996

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    Wichita Falls, TX
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    Weather and aviation

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  1. North eyewall going absolutely bonkers again at flight level. This needs to get on land quick before it mixes down.
  2. Flight level wind speeds in the north quad are coming back up.
  3. Back on topic: latest recon pass showing that the south inner eyewall has almost completely collapsed
  4. At this point I’m pretty sure you’re just trolling, in which case we should have the mods roll up here and deal with it. Even if he doesn’t work for NHC that doesn’t mean he isn’t knowledgeable on tropical cyclones. For all we know his research could be in them. Mets don’t have to all agree, and if done tactfully is a major positive in the community that results in better forecasts in the end.
  5. The recon data currently does not support Cat 5. There’s lots of things NHC deals with like advisory continuity that don’t matter to us. Is it likely a cat 5 now (or an hour ago)? No. NHC has to worry about messaging, while we don’t, so we can analyze and say what we actually think is happening. They likely kept it at Cat 5 in this case for consistent messaging, even though it likely isn’t one. I’m betting this part gets downgraded in the post analysis.
  6. Definite EWRC in progress. Both sides sampled so far have the outer eyewall stringer at flight level. The inner eyewall should start degrading rapidly throughout this recon flight. I’m thinking some of the weakening of IR presentation around the eye is due to the EWRC.
  7. Not to derail things too much, but I still think the Patricia passes were a bit more fun since they were so nuts. I’m thinking next pass for this storm will be around 910mb and that’s about where it settles at. May be a bit higher pressure if the EWRC starts ramping up.
  8. The tops warmed a bit right when the sun came up earlier. Since they have held steady since then I think we are just as strong.
  9. The drop was 920mb with 33kt. Air Force just went with 920mb for VDM. I think pressure is probably closer to 918mb.
  10. 913.5 extrap. They got 143kt SFMR on the way out with max (so far) flight level of 129kt.
  11. It’s not EWRC. Microwave shows no signs of that
  12. There isn’t a meso sector over the storm right now. The GOES-16 ones are set up over FL for the Crew-1 NASA launch. There’s also a GOES-17 meso sector for FL.
  13. I even find that unlikely. I don’t think that dude is a good source at all. If that was the case I would have heard about it by now.