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JasonOH

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About JasonOH

  • Rank
    Meteorology Student
  • Birthday 11/20/1996

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KOUN
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Norman, OK
  • Interests
    Weather, duh

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  1. Latest center dropsonde had 933mb with 25kt winds. Pretty nice west wobble between the last 2 passes. Tropical Tidbits isn't plotting rain rate and SFMR. Not sure if it's a data problem or an aircraft problem. The southern eyewall is very weak compared to the northern side with FL winds ~35 knots slower. There is no secondary wind max showing up. This leads me to believe that the weakness is due to the mountains of Dominica, not an ongoing ERC. It should work out as the day goes on.
  2. Turbulence is a major issue over land. Also, over land terrain interaction is a risk. It's a common policy for them to not fly in over land. In this case it's even more of a terrain issue than usual due to the 4500foot peaks on the island.
  3. Raw T# up to 7.1 per CIMSS. Anyone have their link for the GOES-16 ADT?
  4. Yes. In the last 4mb the wind speed increased, indicating it was a gust. 4mb above the surface it was 112kt. At 5mb above the surface it is 117kt. With friction this is likely 110kt at the surface. You can't take the dropsondes verbatim every time since this one shows a pretty classic signature of a gust.
  5. That sonde could have caught a gust since the wind increased so much in the final 4mb, but 110kt is easily believable for surface winds. Going to be Cat 4 very soon, if not already. edit: NHC went with 110KT/956mb
  6. No more NOAA recon, but USAF is still going to work it. NOAA had to evac to New Orlenes per a tweet from them. The SE eyewall has definitely improved its radar presentation. Another thing I noticed is the banding around the eyewall is improving. This new band (arrow), just popped up and doesn't look fun for Layton. I think some slight intensification will come in the next couple hours. If the eyewall cannot close off, then anything more than an additional 5-10mph is off the table.
  7. I agree with this. Once the core got back together after the eyewall replacement cycle, it strengthed very quickly. The shape of the coast is really hurting things now. It has to turn hard to get away and strengthen.
  8. As long as the core is intact, once this gets over water it will restrengthen. Luckily it's hanging on. Cuba's geography isn't helping, since the storm can't pull away from the coast. That south wobble last night is what caused this problem. If it wasn't for that it would have been impacted, no where near as bad.
  9. I'm seeing double wind Maxima pop up in a few recon passes. Looks like it is probably due to land interaction based on earlier microwave passes.
  10. That's what I was thinking. Still improving compared to earlier passes.
  11. It didn't wait to strengthen. Should be back to Cat 5 next update. (If it isn't flagged)
  12. Still there on recon. Last pass had double wing maxima at flight level. Heading inbound for another pass now.
  13. The winds on the SE eyewall are much weaker than last night. This is most likely due to the ERC/attempt at ERC/whatever that was with concentric eyewalls last night. That was the weakest part when I went to bed so it bears watching it ramp back up. There shouldn't be more than a 10-15kt drop between that and NW quad due to the direction of motion (in a perfect case).
  14. Eyewall replacement cycle. It's where a new eyewall forms outside and replaces the inner eyewall (IEW). The IEW will deteriorate through the evening as the outer eyewall replaces it.
  15. Except for the fact that it's wrecking everything else in verification, even at hour 120. Does the verification link really need posted for the thousandth time? The math says ECMWF is best, so I trust it the most.