Jump to content

JasonOH

Members
  • Content count

    581
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About JasonOH

  • Rank
    Meteorology Student
  • Birthday 11/20/1996

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KOUN
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Norman, OK
  • Interests
    Weather, duh

Recent Profile Visitors

1,076 profile views
  1. Apr. 2-4 Severe Threat

    It just produced. From 15:44-15:48 there was a CC drop correlated with 50+ dBZ reflectivity and co-located with the couplet.
  2. Apr. 2-4 Severe Threat

    HRRR initialization hasn't been too great so far with respect to dew points. If you compare for the 15z HRRR at hour 1 (16z) to the surface map, the dew points are way behind in S IN/IL and W KY. I'm not thinking the warm front will move as far north as modeled. I think it will be much further south especially in Ohio with the marginal moisture return so far. I'm thinking the 60 degree dews make it to somewhere between I70 and US36 in Ohio. In IN I think the 60 degree dews make it up to a line from Piqua, OH to roughly Lafayette, IN. Ongoing convection will reinforce the warm front which is why I think higher dew points wont make it as far north in OH. In C IN, convection is a bit further north, so the warm front should be able to push further north. I will say, reflectivity initialization wasn't bad on the latest run, so the warming it predicts should be pretty good for the warm sector. With all of this added together, I think there will be a solid tornado threat from SW KY up through S IL and into S IN. W OH is much more conditional based on the moisture return being slow. Observations are key on days like this.
  3. November 5th, 2017 Severe Weather Event

    Funnel cloud SW of Celina on scanner. TDAY has a strong circulation there.
  4. Hurricane Maria

    Latest center dropsonde had 933mb with 25kt winds. Pretty nice west wobble between the last 2 passes. Tropical Tidbits isn't plotting rain rate and SFMR. Not sure if it's a data problem or an aircraft problem. The southern eyewall is very weak compared to the northern side with FL winds ~35 knots slower. There is no secondary wind max showing up. This leads me to believe that the weakness is due to the mountains of Dominica, not an ongoing ERC. It should work out as the day goes on.
  5. Hurricane Maria

    Turbulence is a major issue over land. Also, over land terrain interaction is a risk. It's a common policy for them to not fly in over land. In this case it's even more of a terrain issue than usual due to the 4500foot peaks on the island.
  6. Hurricane Maria

    Raw T# up to 7.1 per CIMSS. Anyone have their link for the GOES-16 ADT?
  7. Hurricane Maria

    Yes. In the last 4mb the wind speed increased, indicating it was a gust. 4mb above the surface it was 112kt. At 5mb above the surface it is 117kt. With friction this is likely 110kt at the surface. You can't take the dropsondes verbatim every time since this one shows a pretty classic signature of a gust.
  8. Hurricane Maria

    That sonde could have caught a gust since the wind increased so much in the final 4mb, but 110kt is easily believable for surface winds. Going to be Cat 4 very soon, if not already. edit: NHC went with 110KT/956mb
  9. Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

    No more NOAA recon, but USAF is still going to work it. NOAA had to evac to New Orlenes per a tweet from them. The SE eyewall has definitely improved its radar presentation. Another thing I noticed is the banding around the eyewall is improving. This new band (arrow), just popped up and doesn't look fun for Layton. I think some slight intensification will come in the next couple hours. If the eyewall cannot close off, then anything more than an additional 5-10mph is off the table.
  10. Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

    I agree with this. Once the core got back together after the eyewall replacement cycle, it strengthed very quickly. The shape of the coast is really hurting things now. It has to turn hard to get away and strengthen.
  11. Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

    As long as the core is intact, once this gets over water it will restrengthen. Luckily it's hanging on. Cuba's geography isn't helping, since the storm can't pull away from the coast. That south wobble last night is what caused this problem. If it wasn't for that it would have been impacted, no where near as bad.
  12. Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

    I'm seeing double wind Maxima pop up in a few recon passes. Looks like it is probably due to land interaction based on earlier microwave passes.
  13. Major Hurricane Irma

    That's what I was thinking. Still improving compared to earlier passes.
  14. Major Hurricane Irma

    It didn't wait to strengthen. Should be back to Cat 5 next update. (If it isn't flagged)
  15. Major Hurricane Irma

    Still there on recon. Last pass had double wing maxima at flight level. Heading inbound for another pass now.
×