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Everything posted by JasonOH

  1. I’m staying with friends so luckily I’m warm. The whole situation is frustrating because of how many areas nearby have never lost power.
  2. I’m now around 30 hours without power. This has been absurdly mismanaged by ONCOR seeing as their “rolling outages” haven’t been rolling at all.
  3. It’s a blast... I found a place to stay for the night that has power.
  4. I am once again asking for a Southwest trend in the snow maps.
  5. My best estimate of total snowfall in Wichita Falls is 6.5”. With how much wind we had it’s hard to get an accurate number, even in areas protected by the wind.
  6. North eyewall going absolutely bonkers again at flight level. This needs to get on land quick before it mixes down.
  7. Flight level wind speeds in the north quad are coming back up.
  8. Back on topic: latest recon pass showing that the south inner eyewall has almost completely collapsed
  9. At this point I’m pretty sure you’re just trolling, in which case we should have the mods roll up here and deal with it. Even if he doesn’t work for NHC that doesn’t mean he isn’t knowledgeable on tropical cyclones. For all we know his research could be in them. Mets don’t have to all agree, and if done tactfully is a major positive in the community that results in better forecasts in the end.
  10. The recon data currently does not support Cat 5. There’s lots of things NHC deals with like advisory continuity that don’t matter to us. Is it likely a cat 5 now (or an hour ago)? No. NHC has to worry about messaging, while we don’t, so we can analyze and say what we actually think is happening. They likely kept it at Cat 5 in this case for consistent messaging, even though it likely isn’t one. I’m betting this part gets downgraded in the post analysis.
  11. Definite EWRC in progress. Both sides sampled so far have the outer eyewall stringer at flight level. The inner eyewall should start degrading rapidly throughout this recon flight. I’m thinking some of the weakening of IR presentation around the eye is due to the EWRC.
  12. Not to derail things too much, but I still think the Patricia passes were a bit more fun since they were so nuts. I’m thinking next pass for this storm will be around 910mb and that’s about where it settles at. May be a bit higher pressure if the EWRC starts ramping up.
  13. The tops warmed a bit right when the sun came up earlier. Since they have held steady since then I think we are just as strong.
  14. The drop was 920mb with 33kt. Air Force just went with 920mb for VDM. I think pressure is probably closer to 918mb.
  15. 913.5 extrap. They got 143kt SFMR on the way out with max (so far) flight level of 129kt.
  16. It’s not EWRC. Microwave shows no signs of that
  17. There isn’t a meso sector over the storm right now. The GOES-16 ones are set up over FL for the Crew-1 NASA launch. There’s also a GOES-17 meso sector for FL.
  18. I even find that unlikely. I don’t think that dude is a good source at all. If that was the case I would have heard about it by now.
  19. I think the reported 8 mile eye was the decaying inner eyewall. Based on satellite imagery you can see the old eye rotating around the eyewall.
  20. Based on flight level obs I think that’s just a gust. Flight level obs have never had a wind speed greater than 130kt this mission. Also, there is usually decrease in wind speed in the lowest 20mb and that isn’t the case in that sonde. The only value that’s Cat 5 is the surface wind, nothing else. Mean wind in the lowest 150m is more useful in this case and that’s still Cat 4.
  21. We can speculate (like I did above), but I don’t think that kid is a good source. It’s likely extreme turbulence made it unsafe, but I find it unlikely it went so far as stalling.
  22. Wind shear. Rapid onset of wind shear can result in high G loads (and turbulence). The eyewall is pretty homogenous and there isn’t actually that much shear since it gradually ramps up. The mesovorts have wind directional and speed changes that happen exceptionally fast.
  23. The biggest thing that makes me think that is the timing of the aborts being almost identical. With that tiny of the eye it will be very hard to avoid the mesovorts. I'm thinking the turns around the eye were to time the exit to avoid mesovorts.