JasonOH
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Everything posted by JasonOH
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My best estimate of total snowfall in Wichita Falls is 6.5”. With how much wind we had it’s hard to get an accurate number, even in areas protected by the wind.
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5.1
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I even find that unlikely. I don’t think that dude is a good source at all. If that was the case I would have heard about it by now.
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I think the reported 8 mile eye was the decaying inner eyewall. Based on satellite imagery you can see the old eye rotating around the eyewall.
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Based on flight level obs I think that’s just a gust. Flight level obs have never had a wind speed greater than 130kt this mission. Also, there is usually decrease in wind speed in the lowest 20mb and that isn’t the case in that sonde. The only value that’s Cat 5 is the surface wind, nothing else. Mean wind in the lowest 150m is more useful in this case and that’s still Cat 4.
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We can speculate (like I did above), but I don’t think that kid is a good source. It’s likely extreme turbulence made it unsafe, but I find it unlikely it went so far as stalling.
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Wind shear. Rapid onset of wind shear can result in high G loads (and turbulence). The eyewall is pretty homogenous and there isn’t actually that much shear since it gradually ramps up. The mesovorts have wind directional and speed changes that happen exceptionally fast.
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The biggest thing that makes me think that is the timing of the aborts being almost identical. With that tiny of the eye it will be very hard to avoid the mesovorts. I'm thinking the turns around the eye were to time the exit to avoid mesovorts.
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I wonder if the abort was due to the mesovorts. They may have decided it was too dangerous.
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127kt FL with 135kt unflagged SFMR (Press x to doubt). 925.3mb extrap on the last ob.
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This will have similar effects too: tons of rainfall causing catastrophic flooding.
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Raw T up to 8.4 per UW CIMSS. This may look perfect but it takes time to deepen. If there's a large drop between passes I think we make a run at 900mb overnight. If there is not a large drop then I think this will max out at 915-920mb
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That north eyewall didn't have a surface report though. We only know the last report was at 929mb before it cut out.
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I think there is a secondary eyewall forming. There's a bit of a secondary SFMR max on the inbound. On the outbound there is a big rain spike at about the same distance radially from the center.
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Just a friendly reminder that storms need time to deepen. No matter how good it looks you can't drop 100mb in a day.
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The pressure was extrapolated from 700mb. I guess they either ran out of dropsondes or had a malfunction. That explains why the VDM came out so quick. Eye diameter down to 20nm with the south side open.
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Jesus they got that VDM off super quick. 950mb
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Never realized that was you. You tweet some real good stuff!
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Took me a couple tries to get it to work on my iPhone. Site isn’t designed for super good public consumption. Y’all got lucky I have a friend with the link.
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This link should have the OU SMART-R feed it once they are set up: http://smartr.metr.ou.edu/smartr2/latest/ *deleted previous post since I got the link.
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949.2 extrap. 95kt FL and 95kt SFMR on the inbound. Edit: Large area of 100kt FL on the outbound.
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SFMR gets messed up in high rain rates. Those low values were all right in the middle of a huge rain rate spike. Dropsonde should give us a better idea of what’s going on since SFMR couldn’t that pass.
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Outflow looks good in all quadrants. Based on what I’m seeing right now I expect recon to find ~115-120kt FL and ~100KT surface. Low end Cat 3.
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Had to get some work done and took a bit of time off from the storm. Looks a bit improved in the past hour. Slow intensification is definitely happening.
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Got up to 110kt flight level that pass.
