FWIW I usually put much more stock in IR since it allows me to see finer detail than visible on cloud heights. Allows me to pick up different features that may not be as well shown on vis.
in other news, recon got 102kt flight level NE of the eye.
Latest VDM still showing open eyewall. Based on IR it looks like there’s a weaker area rotating around that was to the south a couple minutes before the VDM. It’s now on the east side but looks a bit better now.
edit: that lasted like 10 minutes
I don’t think it’s an ERC since the eyewall never really has been stable yet. I think it’s more due to the fact that there isn’t a super strong eyewall so the wind max isn’t as concentrated.
In the last few frames the line of overshooting tops appears to be taking on a bit of a curved shape with the east end rotating north. May be getting some organization
963.8 extrap on that pass. Previous pass VDM noted an eyewall open to the north. Improvement over previous structure where there was no coherent eyewall.
Eyewall looks much improved on the last few scans from the Cayman Islands. It’s 175+nm away but the eye appears to be 10-15nm wide. Also, recon just took off. Should arrive near 0z.
Interesting radar loop from the Cayman Islands. It’s super far from radar but it looks like there *may* be an EWRC in progress/finishing up.
http://www.weather.gov.ky/portal/page/portal/nwshome/forecasthome/radar
Another reminder, MIMIC doesn’t update without additional polar satellite passes. With a storm that’s rapidly evolving (like this) and with the latest pass being 8 hours ago, it’s useless.
FWIW the energy from fusion due to lighting is orders of magnitude lower than that of the storm as a whole and has no effect on strengthening. It’s a symptom of strengthening and microphysics processes, not a cause.