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NJwx85

Major Hurricane Irma

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

That was a much more stable pattern at day 7-10 than this is.  I would be amazed if this was locked Monday or Tuesday at this point. The pattern is just a total mess both over the US and WATL 

Yeah, almost no chance that wave break/RWT over the CONUS is being modeled correctly atm. There's a good reason there's a huge spread after D6/D7 right now.

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5 hours ago, BlunderStorm said:

Does it make me a bad person? I mean when thinking of the losses caused due to the event that I could not control I cannot help but feel guilty when it does come over. Today for example the remnants of Harvey swept through my area giving some rather pleasant wind gusts with some refreshing rainfall. I do sincerely apologize if I have angered you.

Humans are wired to look for novelty. This article does a good job about why many of us are attracted to extreme weather events http://www.alternet.org/environment/why-we-love-storms

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54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Second summer in a row with the near to record breaking ridge W and SW of Spain. Seems to be part of a couplet producing the deep vortex and SST cold pool S and SE Of Greenland. Without this ridge inducing the WSW motion, Irma would recurve somewhere north of Hispaniola or Puerto Rico. The EA has been in record positive territory recently.

ea.timeseries.gif.e5ea4515f21af66be38f546873c4b556.gif

 

 

 

 

Part of that is also likely a weakening of the SPG (sub-polar gyre). There's some evidence that's part of a long term change/trend. A good portion of the higher skill climate models continue to weaken the SPG in the future and a significant cluster of those suggest instability and local convection collapse -- which would definitely exacerbate that trend. There was a paper on this recently. I'll dig it up.

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7 hours ago, SN_Lover said:

Who is getting fished? I see no hands raised. But when you say a run is wrong without any backup evidence it kinda makes you look silly. FYI. 

He's technically right. It's an entirely different story to say that a storm wouldn't behave the way it did vs. a cat 5 making landfall at a high lattitude. Yes, one should never talk in absolutes. Perhaps "almost impossible" or "highly unlikely" would have been better words. But I think we all know what he was trying to say. It is likely that the pressures on the models are way overdone that far north.

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2 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Part of that is also likely a weakening of the SPG (sub-polar gyre). There's some evidence that's part of a long term change/trend. A good portion of the higher skill climate models continue to weaken the SPG in the future and a significant cluster of those suggest instability and local convection collapse -- which would definitely exacerbate that trend. There was a paper on this recently. I'll dig it up.

This pattern seems to really have become pronounced following the record summer 2012 melt. 

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1 minute ago, tim123 said:

But eps takes it out to sea?

EPS only goes out 240 and has Irma hugging the coast racing North.

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5 minutes ago, TriPol said:

EPS only goes out 240 and has Irma hugging the coast racing North.

Free maps stop at 240. The run goes out to 360 but you have to pay for it. EPS D10-15 strongly favors an ots track. 

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5 minutes ago, TriPol said:

EPS only goes out 240 and has Irma hugging the coast racing North.

EPS goes to 360hr and about 1/3 come inland.

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UKMET models have been remarkably consistent (least error and bias) with IRMA track and intensity compared to other global models.
I'm going to be watching http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/storm-tracker/#?tab=map&stormId=11L&stormName=IRMA
and comparing closely with ECMF and AVNO(GFS) until 3 days out.  My bet is UKM will stay consistent.
 

Screen Shot 2017-09-02 at 10.44.51 AM.png

Screen Shot 2017-09-02 at 10.52.00 AM.png

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Because i can't think today, is the EPS still experimental or is it operational now,

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Last nights Euro run would hit a lot of the same ares Matthew did last year. Obviously Matthews overall track was quite different. But if it verified it would be wild to see that recurve happen on the east coast just like Matthew did last year.

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29 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Unfortunately since it is a pay site I don't believe I can.

Plus I already posted it  

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21 minutes ago, Bluescat1 said:

I hope this changes.

 

models.jpg

That's some amazing agreement this far out, modeling has come a long way in the last 10-15 years. 

Even the globals are not that far off, the biggest difference is the speed of Irma which of course will be critical. 

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Looking at the floaters. It seems Irma is a little healthier and motion to the WSW seems to have started this morning.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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4 hours ago, Jtm12180 said:

I get it. Living 3-4 miles from the coast in Myrtle Beach, some of these models aren't what I want to see.

 

On the the other hand, my complete fascination by them after seeing what Hugo did as an 8 year old, I can't help but want to experience the power of one. But priorities change and doing crazy things like storm chasing or "riding out" a cat 4 go to the back burner when you have a family. When I was single I would've in a heartbeat! 

 Not to worry.  The urge and opportunity return when the kids are grown.

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3 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

Considerable difference in how the eps and the gefs handle the northern trough.  If the eps verifies...a strike north of the virginia capes is basically impossible since the war has been knocked back.  The gefs of course offers keeps all east coast solutions in play. 

 

eps_z500a_noram_31.png

gefs_z500a_noram_31.png

Excellent post.

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Irma is starting to cross over progressively warmer water now. It was near its maximum potential intensity last night, but MPIs have dropped from 960s to the 930s now, with shear at about 7kt, so we could see some strengthening today (depending on ERCs and some potential for dry air ingestion).

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GFS: Trough pivoting faster and Irma chugging along faster. If anything the Euro has been the one trending towards the GFS. 

Also, Irma has begun loosing latitude this morning. 

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

12z GFS is likely doubling down on the trough and cutting it off even more aggressively this run based on how much deeper it is already at hr 84.

That and the ULL in the Atlantic will be key in this. 

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