NavarreDon Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Paleocene said: This is not a good run. Being born in Hollywood, raised in Ft Lauderdale till 16, having family, friends, & other interests down there. I can only look at that image with stunned silence. Gotta keep telling myself it's a week out because even with pressure bias that's devastation from Homestead on up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Yeah let's hope so. Even a 950 going in that track is bad news. I literally have no idea where to evac when watching this run. Belize? edit - responding to Eskimo Joe pressure post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Hurricane David like track...except it won't get shredded before s-FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 That'd make the Labor Day cane look like a passing breeze... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 The one thing I have noticed on all of the models as it approaches Florida, pressure values ignored, the pressure tendency is for it to be strengthening at landfall like Harvey did going into Texas. Right now there is a consensus if you have no major land interaction with Cuba or last minute ERC, that you will have a very strong storm strengthening upon landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Good thing here is it stays on land the entire ride.. no re-emergence/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Geez, this run is an absolute disaster for FL. Traverses most of the state on it's track. It never leaves land. At 168 it's in SE Georgia... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: Good thing here is it stays on land the entire ride.. no re-emergence/ Eh, lack of emergence worse for more of Florida though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Still heading NNW toward the S Apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: GFS has a bias to over deepen tropical cyclones since it's "upgrade" don't take the intensity verbatim. Shifts in track and upper air features are the key factors to watch right now. Honestly you can hedge what the GFS is outputing by following the euro for the same hrs as it essentially has the same track into South Fla. Euro is 930's into southern Fla so we're looking a cat 5 either way at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Guys are there any known biases on the 18z gfs as we know there to be sometimes when tracking winter storms or no? Whereas we sometimes discard it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, Wow said: Still heading NNW toward the S Apps With the lift around the southern and eastern escarpment that will be terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: Good thing here is it stays on land the entire ride.. no re-emergence/ Is there anything that could create changes in the steering, the trough and ridge, that could suggest a further west track than this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: The one thing I have noticed on all of the models as it approaches Florida, pressure values ignored, the pressure tendency is for it to be strengthening at landfall like Harvey did going into Texas. Right now there is a consensus if you have no major land interaction with Cuba or last minute ERC, that you will have a very strong storm strengthening upon landfall. Makes perfect sense given the upper level pattern and the warm SSTs associated with the gulf stream. I'd hedge if it ends up in that spot with half decent core structure, it'll strengthen(possibly significantly). Environment there is near perfect, only hindrance being some minor southwesterly shear, which would be hindered some once the storm turns northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MazooWeather Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Guys are there any known biases on the 18z gfs as we know there to be sometimes when tracking winter storms or no? Whereas we sometimes discard it? The 6Z and 18Z used to be notorious for being off, but iirc those issues got dealt with years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Looks like an ERC on IR. Looking forward to what recon finds: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Something to keep in mind -- the Florida peninsula is about 150 miles wide -- that's much narrower than the margin of error of this storm as it makes the turn. This could easily pass just east (more likely, it would appear) or west of the peninsula and be a beast as it hits Ga/SC/NC or the panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 11 minutes ago, Wow said: Still heading NNW toward the S Apps I'm assuming there would be massive flooding there. I live in Greenville, SC. Could be catastrophic here too due to lift increasing qpf amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: The 6Z and 18Z used to be notorious for being off, but iirc those issues got dealt with years ago I talked to someone involved in the prceipitation scheme of the model and he said that Issue was solved. They are much closer to normal now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: Being born in Hollywood, raised in Ft Lauderdale till 16, having family, friends, & other interests down there. I can only look at that image with stunned silence. Gotta keep telling myself it's a week out because even with pressure bias that's devastation from Homestead on up! I have friends all along the i-95 side of Florida. The ones from the Space Coast to Jacksonville were there for last year's storm, so they have a better idea where to go. But one friend from HS recently moved to the PBI area in the last couple of months, working for Burns and McConnell. And I know he doesn't know where the major evac routes will be if these runs come close to reality (higher central pressure of course, but geographic path). I'm hoping he and his wife will know to get out of there in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Tonight's 0Z run is going to be intersting with the baloon & G-IV data collected incorporated into it. To see if there will be any changes to model ouptut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: Still heading NNW toward the S Apps Big differences in euro/gfs UL pattern emerge after Irma passes southern Fla. definitely low confidence in track beyond that point. The GEFS mean and EPS mean clearly have a turn towards the north/NNE after LF, but the mean LF position is further west, so it remains largely over land. If the GFS and Euro are correct with its pass over/near Miami I expect she will come back over open water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 I mean it's kind of ridiculous to feel like an unprecedented event just occurred and it's merely the last 12 hrs of global model simulations. But I've definitely had my fill; the two main globals can go ahead and start resolving different track solutions and we can put these away for all time weenie runs. Thank goodness Irma is still a good six days away. Ready for a flip soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, ncskywarn said: Tonight's 0Z run is going to be intersting with the baloon & G-IV data collected incorporated into it. To see if there will be any changes to model ouptut. Definitely...to see if westward trend continues or not. And am really getting concerned regarding Fla. evacuations if this thing goes north up the spine. Where would people go? To the panhandle or Mobile area? As well as upslope rains as moisture hits the mountains I certainly hope the 18z run does not come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Friends/ fam in So Flo, invited to stay with us but I'm in Jax. 18Z GFS doesn't leave many places to go if your on the Atlantic side of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Does Fort Meyers see hurricane force winds on this run? Can't see crap on my phone. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 So many issues down there with evacuation, can't go S, can't go E, only option W crosses the alley, & N you have the Turnpike, 95, smaller US1, even smaller A1A. Dade, Broward, & Palm Beach county populations are around 6 million. It's a logistics nightmare! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 State of emergency issued for florida. http://miami.cbslocal.com/2017/09/04/florida-gov-declares-state-of-emergency-over-hurricane-irma/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 I have friends all along the i-95 side of Florida. The ones from the Space Coast to Jacksonville were there for last year's storm, so they have a better idea where to go. But one friend from HS recently moved to the PBI area in the last couple of months, working for Burns and McConnell. And I know he doesn't know where the major evac routes will be if these runs come close to reality (higher central pressure of course, but geographic path). I'm hoping he and his wife will know to get out of there in time.Meanwhile, my friend in WPB is talking about evacuating his family to ... my state, NC. This is a tough one to plan for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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