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Jim Marusak

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About Jim Marusak

  • Birthday 01/21/1974

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  • Location:
    st paul, MN
  1. have to admit, i'm not totally up on the latest in high end military drone tech. But i'm not sure we have a drone in our arsenal or in existence that can actually mechanically take the turbulent stresses that major hurricanes near mountains can deliver. if we do, it must be like an x-class experimental plane or something like that.
  2. so, what type of clues are we looking at for the turn based off the 00Z raobs now available (SPC and elsewhere)?
  3. hate to say it, but if this storm goes any much further west than Tampa, you're not going to be talking about Miami damage anymore. you're talking almost worst case scenario for Tampa Bay, as their worst case has it landfall of a 4 or 5 just west/northwest of the city, bringing the storm surge right into the bay. I hope that doesn't happen, as that would paint a different narrative on Irma.
  4. guys and gals, not sure how relevant this is to the discussion, but we've had a couple of X-class and a couple of M-class solar flares over the last 36 hours (one of which was an X-9). I know this won't directly affect Irma itself. But we've been apparently been wavering between a G-2 and G-4 geomagnetic storm over the last few hours, and may do so for another 24-48 hours. this type of geomagnetic storm may affect satellites and their data, as well as some radio transmissions. hopefully this doesn't degrade any data we will be getting on Irma (and Jose and Katia) from up top for the next few days, when we need it the most.
  5. assuming that the track line is the centerline of Irma (no guarantee by any means, but for assumption's sake), the winds would be fairly strong off-shore until the end from the northeast. so it wouldn't be the worst case scenario by any means. but imho, if you're not sure about your safety, don't take a chance with this hurricane and depart.
  6. I have friends all along the i-95 side of Florida. The ones from the Space Coast to Jacksonville were there for last year's storm, so they have a better idea where to go. But one friend from HS recently moved to the PBI area in the last couple of months, working for Burns and McConnell. And I know he doesn't know where the major evac routes will be if these runs come close to reality (higher central pressure of course, but geographic path). I'm hoping he and his wife will know to get out of there in time.
  7. I'm not a modeling specialist, i'm more a forecaster, so please take this with a grain of salt. it can have some effect on the synoptic scale. but more than anything else, it has effects on things like strength and precipitation, things most affected by latent heat and heat balance (like the old LFM model, where you had a famous issue to cut the qpf by 1/2 because of an extra 2 in the latent heat equations) no argument. the big issue came about when they made the most recent changes to the GFS, as I understand things. They couldn't have the model perfectly coupled with the ocean in the atlantic apparently due to model stability and other issues. others in here know more about those changes than I do. But the discussion floating around is that this season, the changes have just not been good on the intensity side while on the track is hasn't been too bad. sort of a compromise done with this version which I hope they don't have to do with the next update.
  8. from what everyone is saying in here, we have a model issue. basically, the heat balance is off as it's going off of statistical normal ocean water temperatures, not what actually is going on. it's de-coupling the ocean. and when you de-couple the ocean like that, things tend to go towards the extremes more than what might be more typical as it doesn't take into potential account things like upwelling, anomalies in temperatures, or other issues.
  9. 900? heck no, way too low for an o/u bet. now if you set that o/u line at say 930 or 935 for an opening line, I think you might get some action on both sides.
  10. it's what i've been saying for the last few days when people ask me. the main inflection point for all the models was between the Leewards and the central Bahamas. so when we get to leewards and then the central Bahamas, that's when we'll start to worry and be able to pick our spots. until then, it has been a crap shoot at best.
  11. in other words, when Irma gets to the central Bahamas, that's when we should know which way she turns as that seems to be the common inflection point. but yea, that 878 that's I think record territory for the Atlantic Basin and I do not think Irma heads there. 910-920, I agree I think we would see that, given what we're seeing so far. But that jet pattern, having momma nature bowl right-handed instead of normally left-handed again and put it into an almost Hazle-like position? i'm not sure how much I believe it, despite Sandy a couple of years ago. Those type of interactions just do not usually like to happen often. It almost feels like it should be more heading to Long Island and New England, not up the Chesapeake and flooding Delaware Bay as well as Philly from the surge.
  12. I hope this is just the gridded quadrillion step math problem we run going nuts. I really do. because I don't necessarily like the trend the GFS is setting.
  13. watching the model trends and such, seeing the discussion here, etc, my simple analysis on any landfall or ots potential forecasting: wait until Irma gets to the central Bahamas. Because all the models and all the tracks seem to hint that when she gets there, that's when the ridge interaction will determine all. I know maybe that sounds like we have to be almost too patient on that given what we're seeing. But that's about how I'm thinking of playing it on twitter and with friends on FB at this point, with keeping the shop talk in here until then.
  14. very true. but would Irma be willing to pay the tolls on the thruway to make its way to Montreal? yes, I am a bad comic.
  15. makes me wonder sometimes where we'd be if we didn't have CNN, Fox News, or MSNBC. maybe in a slightly better place. that all being said, I know online, I'm keeping my jets cool on Irma until she gets within 1 day of the northern Antillies. hopefully by then the models will have a better handle on how she'll turn north.