Jump to content

Jim Marusak

  • Content count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

About Jim Marusak

  • Birthday 01/21/1974

Contact Methods

  • AIM
  • Yahoo
  • Skype

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
  • Gender
  • Location:
    st paul, MN
  1. January 20-22nd Winter Storm

    well, the mets got it right around here, but the school board in St Paul (my current residence) screwed up big time. some kids didn't get home until 11pm from elementary school. totally sad. https://blogs.mprnews.org/newscut/2018/01/meteorologists-blamed-for-st-paul-school-bus-snafu/ I can verify that not only the NWS got the right message out, but all the local TV stations did too. either they were directly saying 6-10 or 8-12, but the heaviest snowfall would be in the afternoon and the evening rush, and it would be heaviest in the east and southeast metro; or they were like 6-8, but the big band was close enough that any jog to the north that 12" was realistic for the east metro, also saying the worst would be the afternoon and the evening rush hour. I hate to say it, but with precinct caucuses in ~2 weeks for the DFL and GOP in Minnesota, and the school board members usually all there with the people actually seeking nominations (both US senate seats, governor's seat, US and state reps, and other state row offices) I wonder how many people will show up to complain to the school board members. I know as a DFL member (and convener/precinct chair for the precinct), I will definitely have to ask them politely but firmly who they were listening to about that forecast. after all, this is a storm whose call was right, not one to blame my fellow meteorological colleagues on.
  2. January 20-22nd Winter Storm

    as for the Euro, its operational run is still much further south than the rest of the models. it even looks like it's further south with the QPF than the previous two runs.
  3. January 20-22nd Winter Storm

    looks like with the Canadian it brings a near-perfect dynamic set with the trowal nearby to bring in the burst of really heavy snowfall between 12 and 18 UTC on Monday. Without that big dynamic boost, snowfall amounts in the heaviest area are closer to 8-12 than 14-20. this system is definitely going to have as its issue whether it'll be just trowal/occlusion dynamics or adding a boost to them with surface and near-surface synoptics.
  4. January 20-22nd Winter Storm

    GFS Operational in, not as bad for the metro, but still definitely significant at 8-11". still the Canadian, euro, ukmet, and the ensembles to go.
  5. January 20-22nd Winter Storm

    everyone has to remember here though in the Twin Cities: the Super Bowl is only ~2 weeks away (which Minneapolis has to prepare to host), Crashed Ice in St Paul is this weekend, the Winter Carnival in St Paul starts later on next week. The last thing we need around here is a major 1foot+ snow storm to have to clean up while trying to prep for Super Bowl 52.
  6. January 20-22nd Winter Storm

    I know the NAM-WRF has its biases, so take it for what it's worth. But damn, if the 00Z run is to be believed the Twin Cities, Central/SE Minnesota, and the southern 1/2 of Wisconsin gets rocked on the trowal the whole time, basically a complete upper-left quad, almost like a worst-case scenario. Some of the kuchera totals over 2 feet in the metro (pivotalweather graphical). thank god it's only one model and a lot more will come out as time goes on the next few days. but that just blows my mind. hope the others aren't anywhere near as big.
  7. actually, I have to wonder here, how much is the sale to the Weather Channel/The Weather Company, and how much could it be The Weather Company's sale to IBM. Because if you notice things, yes it was slowly going down hill, but TWC still upkept it decently, given how they were starting to integrate it to their programming. Once IBM took over, then the spiral has seemed to steepen greatly. Think about something though. The PWS is having problems going to the public, but it's taking data fine. Ever think about how much of that data is maybe being used to help their own private model building compared to public use?
  8. well, the last couple of days, we've been trending on getting cold enough on the backside of a system coming from BC that snow is seriously being talked about here, even in the twin cities metro. not saying it accumulates that much, as of this moment. but still, it looks like the first snowfall of the year. current projections say the magic 850T should be between -3C and -4C, and snow amounts look to be higher for areas west of US 61 than east of it, maybe even moving that boundary closer to I-35. time for snow talk peeps.
  9. Theoretical Met. Question

    theoretical thought on this.... given the pressure gradient in the vertical (omega component) in the troposphere (150hPa in ~1.6km, 500hPa in ~5.7km); in a global, synoptic, and even large mesoscale sense, I just can't imagine a scenario where this can realistically happen in the horizontal (u-v components). in the small mesoscale and microscale, I could see it as possible, with the thing remotely closest to it being a tornado. But even then, I don't think the pressure drop between the outer environment and inside the wall of the strongest vorticies is remotely close to that, if I remember correctly. and given the hydrostatic dynamic also assumed here, that means that vertically, this could only go so far before gravity took over and dampened the effectofanypressur e gradient force in the vertical. so, the only way, imho, in which what you are thinking about in theory can happen, is if you suspended hydrostatic balance.
  10. Even if that is the case, it is still ONE MORE THING Trump can do to crap on our governmental science agencies. one of the interesting appointments for the assistant heads of NOAA though is one of the main people behind the modeling and weather services at Panasonic. And remember, they have been making claims in being able to integrate more data, especially aircraft data, into their version of the GFS, which has accuracy claims much better then the current NOAA version of the GFS. So, depending how that relationship is, that may actually lead to much better data ingest into the current models, which may help our accuracy despite other problems. I would like to maybe see questions on how he may integrate that into the nationwide modeling effort. But will the senators ask about that?
  11. the other large weather companies would sue them into oblivion if they tried, if for no other reason then trying to create a monopoly, which would run into a rare enforcement of the Sherman Anti-Trust act.
  12. ok folks, it's official. the CEO of Accu-Weather Barry Myers has been officially nominated to run NOAA as of 10-11-2017. And I know this may be political, but as well, this pick, if confirmed, will affect the enterprise as we know it, and could affect everything from radar and model availability to the current warning system, basic forecast availability, and even employment and research within the enterprise. http://www.nature.com/news/weather-company-chief-executive-is-trump-s-pick-to-lead-climate-agency-1.22311?WT.mc_id=TWT_NatureNews&sf121239396=1 so, in as professional a manner as possible (which I know may be hard to get sometimes), what's your thoughts on this?
  13. Hurricane Maria

    have to admit, i'm not totally up on the latest in high end military drone tech. But i'm not sure we have a drone in our arsenal or in existence that can actually mechanically take the turbulent stresses that major hurricanes near mountains can deliver. if we do, it must be like an x-class experimental plane or something like that.
  14. Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

    so, what type of clues are we looking at for the turn based off the 00Z raobs now available (SPC and elsewhere)?
  15. Major Hurricane Irma- STORM MODE

    hate to say it, but if this storm goes any much further west than Tampa, you're not going to be talking about Miami damage anymore. you're talking almost worst case scenario for Tampa Bay, as their worst case has it landfall of a 4 or 5 just west/northwest of the city, bringing the storm surge right into the bay. I hope that doesn't happen, as that would paint a different narrative on Irma.