Jim Marusak

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Everything posted by Jim Marusak

  1. pretty simple. John Oliver on "Last Week Tonight" last night did this long segment on the weather industry/partnership over the years. what did you think of the video? informative? harsh? weak? too comedic? not comedic enough? too many flashy-flashy boom booms? lines are open......
  2. well, Dr. Neil Jacobs, current acting head of NOAA, will be speaking a keynote address tomorrow morning at 8am CT at the NWA Annual meeting in Huntsville. how do you think that will go? especially any Q&A after the speech?
  3. you better watch we don't have another "Hurricane Juan" for Halifax folks. that track is definitely not what Halifax needs as it does go up the Harbour for a bit with its passage. but change that trajectory into Nova Scotia from SW to South, and we get a replay of 2003. Something I don't want to happen again, as I was on duty for a company called World Weatherwatch in Markham at the time. We had a contract with CN Rail which uses Halifax/Dartmouth as one of its main hubs on the Atlantic coast. And watching the radar as the center blasted just to the west of Halifax Harbour, putting Halifax/Dartmouth right in the eye wall. After my shift was up the next morning, I saw the footage on CBC and CTV and it was chilling. combination of a cat-2 storm with movement at 20+ mph, funneling into the harbour, and the damage around Halifax was horrific.
  4. i'm over here attm because I have a question for a lot of peeps. someone on twitter just had his flight-tracker app on. and with the vast majority of planes staying away from Dorian, except for identifiable NOAA/USAF hurricane Hunter planes, was seeing some type of rogue flight heading right into Dorian with an Embraer 600 Legacy jet (an executive business jet, not one you wanting to fly towards a cat-4/5 hurricane). What do you think could be going on with that flight? I checked the specs available, its max service altitude is 41kft msl, and it has Rolls Royce 8000lbf thrust engines. no turbulence tolerance specs available.
  5. yea, looks like east of Halifax/Dartmouth would get the worst of it, especially Cape Breton, then Newfoundland in some form and fashion after that.
  6. maybe i missed it earlier in this thread. but who is at what locations for The Weather Channel, Weather Nation, A-w 24/7, CNN, MSNBC, and Fox (Weather Network in Canada is a bonus)?
  7. Yea, I'd definitely be keeping an eye on things up there. Based off the guidance of the moment, and I stress attm, the North shore of PEI may get it worse than the southern shore. And I would imagine the Confederation bridge would be close for sure. But my biggest worry for the Canadian Maritimes would be Nova Scotia east of Halifax, especially Cape Breton, and up into most of southern Newfoundland (all the way from the Wreckhouse area to the Avalon Peninsula, and even the Hibernia Oil/gas fields). But that won't be until probably the end of the week at the earliest, so I wouldn't panic up there yet.
  8. ok, just being sure they won't get massacred ahead of one of their biggest events of the year, especially with a friend of mine driving in and maybe not kept up perfectly with what's going on (didn't ask me before departing).
  9. guys, something to think about here. there's the OshKosh Air show starting this weekend (a private pilot friend of mine is driving from SE PA to there as we type). I have to wonder, from what we are seeing on radar, how many small planes have already flew their way in for that show, and how much damage could this mean to the airport ahead of that air show?
  10. i just ran the number. if the computer thought the speed was 47 m/s, not 47 kt, well, 47 m/s = 91kt = 105mph. case closed?
  11. that's what I was wondering. did someone/something mis-code the gust to a different part of the metar? or was it an error of mis-converting the knots to km/hr, or maybe even thinking it was meters per sec, converting that to knots?
  12. they did hint in the 1630 and 2000 dicsussions about saying straight up a derecho threat. so, with the reports we're getting and the environment we're dealing with, this seems right if you're emphasizing a derecho with potential spinups on the front edge compared to supercells that could also gust quite high. I think it's appropriate wording for the threat.
  13. that makes total sense. and yes they were impressive. not something you or I will see very often. just hope i remember the mental notes for the next time it happens, say in like 10 year or so.
  14. quick question on this double squall line moving through eastern KS and Missouri currently. How close can these lines be before they end up working against each other in a dynamically destructive manner?
  15. 00Z RAOB from FWD. just an ever so slight lid still holding attm, especially if you look at the mixed layer, not the pure surface Td. still though 3900 j/kg cape and an LI of -12. just need to bust the cap at 750hPa. the lapse rate from the lid to 500hPa is big though, so pop it, and you'll need more than the Coyote's parasol to protect you from the hail.
  16. could it be held up by the CI/AS layers currently in most of the metro from the storms off to the SW near Brownwood/Abilene/Dyess AFB (extrapolating from the ASOS cloud heights and satellite pics there attm). it also looks like two sets of the blowoff tops may have caused a bit of a bubble to form in between, with that bubble right on top of the metroplex.
  17. on the SPC site, just saw the 00Z soundings at OUN and FWD, and those look a lot more promising now for all modes of severe weather with a bit of a more stereotypical severe weather lid forming aloft. add to that the height falls now coming in from NM with an approaching upper low on the mid-level WV satellite (channel 9), and now we're going to get to business for eastern OK and beyond, imho. the high risk may end up verifying yet, or at least has a better chance now. just a more dangerous setting in the night.
  18. i'm not calling it a bust by any means. was it in the storm mode everyone was hoping for in the OKC metro and SE OK? no, too tropical below 650 in the warm sector. but Jackstraw is right in that we're getting to the time in the evening and into the night where the near-surface layer isn't as important and the LLJ kicks in. And from that 21Z sounding I pointed out earlier for OUN, there's still enough kinematics and instability aloft to do a lot. It will be interesting to see the 00Z soundings from OUN, MAF, and FWD as well as any special soundings if they were to put them up out at ABI and maybe SPS to get a better pic of the air masses moving in for the overnight.
  19. going based off the obs, I would say Swisher County Tx > Altus OK > Minco OK > downtown OKC > Cushing OK > Nowata Conty OK with a first guess
  20. anyone look at the 21Z sounding from OUN (18Z and 21Z sounding pages linked below)? If you did, maybe you could see what's actually the problem in the OKC metro and SE OK attm. it actually looks like the moisture may have been way too deep to really get anything explosive going. very moist sounding from the surface to 650hPa. A lot of CAPE there, but the lower 1/3 of the troposphere almost looks purely tropical, IMHO. And tropical air masses aren't as tornado-prone as more traditional storm soundings. Not saying we won't get massive downpours with that, because we most certainly are, and will see that. And not saying that you can't get anything rotating with it, because we are seeing it in spots. But normal tornadic air masses with the normal V at the bottom this is not. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/19052021_OBS/ https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/19052018_OBS/ something closer to traditional would be the sounding at KAMA at 19Z, if you mix out the surface. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/19052019_OBS/ thoughts on this observation?
  21. better look reflectivity and velocity from KFDR radar, tornado now on the ground, Mangum, OK.
  22. a friend of mine over near Shickshinny Lake in rural Luzerne County PA actually posted a pic up of hail near ping pong ball sized hail with the cluster that moved through Luzerne County near 8p EDT, with a bunch of quarter-sized still in the yard after 20+ minutes of melting time. Also, in the City of Nanticoke on the other side of the river, I saw a bunch of friends who put up pics of tree damage (some pretty big and healthy ones) from the first cluster of storms a couple of hours earlier, with power out in several sections of the city. hopefully they all took my instruction and reported the pics and the hail/damage to the NWS in BInghamton, but we'll see in the final records. the radar was actually looking decently impressive by eastern PA standards this afternoon.
  23. that's the same cell that has been going from McCook to Cozad, that's just a "hand-off" warning for North Platte as the cell moves across CWA's.
  24. and Cozad is about to get hit with another circulation, and possibly a 2nd tornado. not exactly their night for viewing only.
  25. at least I'm not the only one. because yea, you're right they're usually the result of cell mergers and are short-lasting due to outflow disruption, allowing for one dominant cell and circulation to take over. these cells being the formation they are just seem unusual to me. I wonder what type of data the researchers are getting out there today on those cells.