Jim Marusak

just love how ugly things got in 18-24 hours of model runs. and also, if the snow total maps are to be believed, high contrast in snow from the northwest metro (Brooklyn Park) compared with much lower amounts in Cottage Grove and Hastings. and it probably wouldn't take much to shift that band 30 miles. good thing I have off work tomorrow. I'll be able to observe here in St. Paul.

i just wasn't convinced on the pressure given the location and how it was located, as the Atlantic most of the time just isn't as strong as the pacific. I have to admit I needed the actual ob before I could be totally convinced and not felt teased. that being said, those winds and the rain will still be ugly as they go thru the Nicaragua mountains.

935hPa, 140kt

is it just me, or are the remnants of Gamma making a bit of a bubble for the shear to move in to Delta? or am I way late to the ball game?

I wonder what's going to be left of the Hattiesburg area after this tornadic storm. the downtown and north side of town is looking at golf ball hail and high winds, the south side, including the airport, is looking they're about to get blasted with either the tornado itself or a pretty nasty inflow wind into this tornado. good luck to them in these next few minutes

not sure if I ever saw two tornado emergencies like that before. overlapping regular tornado or severe thunderstorm warnings? yes. this is just a very scary situation down there.

this tornado threaded the needle between the ULM radar and the airport, as the winds did a quick switch from 120 to 220 when the tornado passed. I also heard from pretty big damage over at the Pecanland Mall (their main shopping mall in the area). I just wonder what the damage reports are on the ULM campus.

moderate or high I don't think really maters at this point. it's probably more a worry now of PDS tornado Watches and normal Tornado Watches than anything else.

I'm thinking that's why to this point they didn't go from Moderate to High. But given that this event has been moderate risk since day 3, even if they keep it moderate, there's plenty of warning out there that most normal "on the street" people should at least be heeding for the possibility that yes this may get ugly. and that in and of itself I hope helps save lives, no matter what the final outcome is at this point.

actually, the RGEM is a lot better with convection ever since they made their spring 2013 upgrade, including 4dvar. before that, yea is was horrible. whatever they did then made them go from "convective trash" to "usable in convection and even decent in convective modes".

for the storm heading into Muskegon, you thinking mainly hail and gusts, or with the rotation on the west end of the storm as seen on the SRV data, is there maybe the chance of a spin-up when the storm makes landfall north of the city of Muskegon itself?

how coupled are the HRRR, 3km NAM, and other models to the current soil moisture in the region? is that maybe skewing the potential dew points high or low for tomorrow? https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

quick question here, i know maybe something really small in the big scale of things. But given the much lower air traffic compared to normal, we have less cirrus cover than normal, which may allow for a few more w/m2 of solar incoming radiation to come through during the times when it clears out between any convection bands during the daytime hours. Will that little bit more solar input maybe help to break caps a bit earlier than expected before sunset?

true, maybe less chasers. but what if counties or towns are closed off in your path ahead due to quarantine, limiting escape routes? and what if offices are forced to be closed due to lack of staff from a potential quarantine?

ok folks, first off, sorry it's been way too long since I've been on this board. my mind just went elsewhere for a while. I know this has probably not been discussed a lot over at the political board. But now I am looking at the calendar and storm-chasing season is nearly here. and i know there are more than a few chasers here. And we also see a lot of problems with the Coronavirus spreading all across the country, even in the plains and dixie alley. And hopefully we don't get bad enough where possible quarrantines may just about close off certain NWS offices due to personnel forced at home (maybe including SPC), or maybe that certain towns/cities, counties, or maybe even states could become restricted to non-residents. gas prices are probably the only thing that's not going to be a potential issue. but could this coronavirus end up making storm chasing more difficult than normal this year? could it almost eliminate it in the worst case? and how could all this affect potential weather watches and warnings this year? debate is open. I just hope i'm not overthinking all of this.

pretty simple. John Oliver on "Last Week Tonight" last night did this long segment on the weather industry/partnership over the years. what did you think of the video? informative? harsh? weak? too comedic? not comedic enough? too many flashy-flashy boom booms? lines are open......

well, Dr. Neil Jacobs, current acting head of NOAA, will be speaking a keynote address tomorrow morning at 8am CT at the NWA Annual meeting in Huntsville. how do you think that will go? especially any Q&A after the speech?

i'm over here attm because I have a question for a lot of peeps. someone on twitter just had his flight-tracker app on. and with the vast majority of planes staying away from Dorian, except for identifiable NOAA/USAF hurricane Hunter planes, was seeing some type of rogue flight heading right into Dorian with an Embraer 600 Legacy jet (an executive business jet, not one you wanting to fly towards a cat-4/5 hurricane). What do you think could be going on with that flight? I checked the specs available, its max service altitude is 41kft msl, and it has Rolls Royce 8000lbf thrust engines. no turbulence tolerance specs available.

ok, just being sure they won't get massacred ahead of one of their biggest events of the year, especially with a friend of mine driving in and maybe not kept up perfectly with what's going on (didn't ask me before departing).

guys, something to think about here. there's the OshKosh Air show starting this weekend (a private pilot friend of mine is driving from SE PA to there as we type). I have to wonder, from what we are seeing on radar, how many small planes have already flew their way in for that show, and how much damage could this mean to the airport ahead of that air show?

i just ran the number. if the computer thought the speed was 47 m/s, not 47 kt, well, 47 m/s = 91kt = 105mph. case closed?

that's what I was wondering. did someone/something mis-code the gust to a different part of the metar? or was it an error of mis-converting the knots to km/hr, or maybe even thinking it was meters per sec, converting that to knots?

they did hint in the 1630 and 2000 dicsussions about saying straight up a derecho threat. so, with the reports we're getting and the environment we're dealing with, this seems right if you're emphasizing a derecho with potential spinups on the front edge compared to supercells that could also gust quite high. I think it's appropriate wording for the threat.

that makes total sense. and yes they were impressive. not something you or I will see very often. just hope i remember the mental notes for the next time it happens, say in like 10 year or so.

quick question on this double squall line moving through eastern KS and Missouri currently. How close can these lines be before they end up working against each other in a dynamically destructive manner?