Jim Marusak

just love how ugly things got in 18-24 hours of model runs. and also, if the snow total maps are to be believed, high contrast in snow from the northwest metro (Brooklyn Park) compared with much lower amounts in Cottage Grove and Hastings. and it probably wouldn't take much to shift that band 30 miles. good thing I have off work tomorrow. I'll be able to observe here in St. Paul.

i just wasn't convinced on the pressure given the location and how it was located, as the Atlantic most of the time just isn't as strong as the pacific. I have to admit I needed the actual ob before I could be totally convinced and not felt teased. that being said, those winds and the rain will still be ugly as they go thru the Nicaragua mountains.

935hPa, 140kt

is it just me, or are the remnants of Gamma making a bit of a bubble for the shear to move in to Delta? or am I way late to the ball game?

well, Dr. Neil Jacobs, current acting head of NOAA, will be speaking a keynote address tomorrow morning at 8am CT at the NWA Annual meeting in Huntsville. how do you think that will go? especially any Q&A after the speech?

i'm over here attm because I have a question for a lot of peeps. someone on twitter just had his flight-tracker app on. and with the vast majority of planes staying away from Dorian, except for identifiable NOAA/USAF hurricane Hunter planes, was seeing some type of rogue flight heading right into Dorian with an Embraer 600 Legacy jet (an executive business jet, not one you wanting to fly towards a cat-4/5 hurricane). What do you think could be going on with that flight? I checked the specs available, its max service altitude is 41kft msl, and it has Rolls Royce 8000lbf thrust engines. no turbulence tolerance specs available.

yea, that is a nice hook down near there, but it sort of devolved a bit as it moves south of Carta Valley. As for the storms near Waco, the most interesting velocity signature there is in between Meridian, Whitney, and Clifton.

that all being said, I have to admit having that line on US 281 from Mineral Wells to Lampasas looks awfully ominous for i-35 eventually, and the t-storm in Mansfield may make things interesting at the stadium in the next 15-30 mins.

i thought AT&T stadium was a domed stadium.

isn't that right around the time the Dallas/Green Bay game ends and people start heading home? maybe some post-game fan safety concerns?

apparently the parts needed to get SJT up and going won't be there until Tuesday. have to admit, that's good timing.

question for gulf coast residents, especially the ones in Louisiana right now. what does it look like outside when you have rainfall rates of 6-7"/hr? latest rates in a couple of spots are in the 6-6.5"/hr if the radar estimates are close to true from Slidell radar. and I just can't imagine what the drop size would be for that high a rainfall rate. i know there's a theoretical equation that can figure that out, but reality would be the better to know than the equation at this point. and radar-estimated totals of 40+", I just can't imagine that much out of one storm. some of the worst flooding i remember was when a decaying tropical storm dumped like 20-30" in central america back in the 2000's. hopefully the radar estimates are off, on the high side.

05Z analysis of this monster system. double-barrel low. barrel 1 in northeastern Ontario near Earlton (CYXR) 992 hPa. Barrel #2, between Indianapolis, Fort Wayne, and Dayton with an estimated central pressure near 990 hPa if not 989 hPa. I've seen some strong single lows with pressures like this in the past, and they caused enough damage. But a double-barrel like this at the end of April, we're probably lucky this wasn't worse, as bad as this system was. Btw, I haven't been keeping track of all of the alerts and such in the northern end, except for my folks in northeastern PA. Has there been any severe t-storm warnings in Ontario or western Quebec with this, on top of all the chaos down here?