NycStormChaser

As expected

Hrrr continues to look Impressive for parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey tonight. I think we see quite a few severe warned thunderstorms over the next few hours. I don't think a spin up is out of the question.

Spc brought the slight risk up into PA / NJ on their latest update. With that also comes the 2% tornado risk further north as well and 10% wind damage.

Mostly for straight line wind damage but folks in the Carolinas have to be on alert today. There will definitely be a few tornado chances.

Models really backed off rainfall amounts for our area today. Let's see how it plays out tomorrow. The spc has extended the slight and marginal areas further north on their most recent update.

It's funny how much they differ in the medium range. It was like that this past sunday night into monday morning. Mt Holly discussed the threat of storms 3 days before while upton brushed it off until the day of. Not knocking them but its interesting to see. Models are in more agreement that parts of the East Coast will experience severe weather on friday. Right now the SPC is eyeballing the carolinas but I think the outlook will be expanded north over the next 24 hours. I can see a setup similar to what we had a few days ago but with more flash flooding and PWAT values are really high.

Yesterdays sunset from Brooklyn.

I think Friday has the potential to be another severe day on the east coast. Certainly have to keep an eye on it. Last night into this morning there was 15 confirmed tornadoes along the east coast. 5 in GA, 5 in PA, 2 in OH, 1 each in SC, NC and DE.

*expect

I personally think there will be a lot of straight line wind damage. The best chance of a spin up looks to be towards Southeast PA / Southwest NJ

The HRRR model has been hinting as this the past few runs now. Pop up storms well ahead of the main line we will get during the overnight hours. Interesting to see how this plays out and how it affects the main line later tonight.

Latest discussion from Upton regarding Sunday night into Monday morning: And Mount Holly:

Hrrr continues to suggest heavy rain and possible thunderstorms tonight into tomorrow morning.