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**BANTER THREAD** Rolling into active period...wintry potential increasing, so are toaster sales

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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this is insane...some of these places are getting days 40F below average. LOL.

post-218-0-05040100-1355931590_thumb.png

We need to unleash some of that down here which is certainly looking more likely as we move into January. Nome, AK hasn't had a day above average since Nov 28th when they were a +2. They haven't had a double digit positive departure since Oct 10th. Fairbanks is a -16 departure so far this month. Plenty of cold has been seeping across the ocean there from Siberia but we haven't been able to really funnel it down into the CONUS.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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We need to unleash some of that down here which is certainly looking more likely as we move into January. Nome, AK hasn't had a day above average since Nov 28th when they were a +2. They haven't had a double digit positive departure since Oct 10th. Fairbanks is a -16 departure so far this month. Plenty of cold has been seeping across the ocean there from Siberia but we haven't been able to really funnel it down into the CONUS.

they have had an amazing stretch. the F6 data is stunning. some days like -38 departure.

it does look like ridging will take hold of that region in the coming days which should break them out of the truly ridiculous cold. some of that spills southeastward into Canada which will help our cause.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Looks like BOX is jumping onto the upslope potential in the wake of the next low pressure system. Ironically, it's actually a bit better for us if the stacked low is a bit further north as opposed to directly overhead since that would result in a stronger W to NW wind and better cross barrier flow. If it's overhead, winds will be light and variable. That said, 00Z Euro looks a little better for the upslope machine than the GFS as GFS was a bit further south with the low as it moves SE over us.

I think even outside of the orographically favored areas, there could be enough lift and instability with the ULL to produce some snow showers. This is more likely if the low tracks further south as this would lead to better overall synoptic lift in SNE. Obviously the best chance for accumulation is in the higher terrain though.

The upslope machine was busy here until about 6 AM last night and this morning with a steady light rain/snow mix at 33° F. We probably would've had 2-3" of snow if we had even seasonable temperatures. The hills above 1.5K are all white this morning as they were just cold enough for some accumulation.

Heavy, heavy upslope snow on the 12z GFS... duration isn't as long as some of the other runs but the low drifts NE and H85 -10C temps crash (usually perfect/textbook temps for high ratio snow forming in the low/mid levels) overnight, this has the feeling of a very solid event with 12"+ at least in the mountains. Like 0.5" QPF and 30:1 ratios.

gfs_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

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Brian5671

Brian5671

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It's 44F here and partly sunny, another day with high's above 40F which we are not supposed to come near.

that's how you know you're in a torchy pattern-each day ends up a bit warmer than guidance and the projected future cold shots become warmer and warmer--note how Saturday is now projected in the low's 40 for most areas....

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cleetussnow

cleetussnow

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Nice trends overnight on GFS and Euro for monster snow/ice event next 26-27th for. Massive shift east.

DT nails it

I wouldn't say nailed it, according to 12Z Euro. But there is a batch of nails and some pine boards stockpiled to bury the notion of a rex block. I can only see to 180 on Wunderground, and looks torchy after the 26th extrapolated, with the dreaded lakes cutter.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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it's amazing how the Euro does that, too - -NAO and it just flips the bird to it and drives the low west anyway.

I tell you what, if that SPV fragment lurking N of Lake Superior were to come down and subsume that southern stream as it moves due N toward Michigan, that would be a partial analog for the Cleveland Super Bomb of Jan 25-28th, 1978

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