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**BANTER THREAD** Rolling into active period...wintry potential increasing, so are toaster sales

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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Yes it is, the NWS has a projected high here of 41F at elevation for saturday. The last few day have been above what you forecast by several degree's. High here monday was 39F, yesterday 43F and today 44F, so much for high's no where near 40F this week.

Would you like to bet you don't even hit 35 on Saturday? You live close. How about. 6 pack of brew?
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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This last month has brought the worst out from posters. Complete garbage in some cases.

I think my favorite is when posters complain that the snow is always 7-10 days away on the models...how the models are garbage...don't trust them, etc....then they make 4 posts about how the GFS at 288 hours out has 3 cutters in a row which means we are finished until January.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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I think my favorite is when posters complain that the snow is always 7-10 days away on the models...how the models are garbage...don't trust them, etc....then they make 4 posts about how the GFS at 288 hours out has 3 cutters in a row which means we are finished until January.

I understand folks are frustrated, but there isn't much we can do. We try to give our best thoughts going forward, sometimes it doesn't work out. I do agree that we are slowly trying to turn things around as we head into January.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I understand folks are frustrated, but there isn't much we can do. We try to give our best thoughts going forward, sometimes it doesn't work out. I do agree that we are slowly trying to turn things around as we head into January.

Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if 12/27 ends up pretty wintry...we obviously do not want the pressure field so wound up like the Euro has that it would overcome the CAD...but a bit early to get too specific about it.

This past Sunday/Monday event did have some stuff go right for it from a winter wx appeal...at least north of the pike. You know something had to go right if Ray gets an ice storm.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I understand folks are frustrated, but there isn't much we can do. We try to give our best thoughts going forward, sometimes it doesn't work out. I do agree that we are slowly trying to turn things around as we head into January.

Eh, a lot of it is lead-ons, Scott - you can also choose to ignore it.

People that vest into the weather deeply are by default going to be depressed most of the time, because they set their sense of merriment (or whatever we want to call it) dependent upon a very narrow set of weather characteristics. Weather comes with a large number of those characters - snow is just one.

Yeah, you could rationalize that it is winter so snow needs to happen....but not really. There's a better probability for it, sure - but doesn't snow 40% (for example) that's a huge number of days.

I am not sure what the percentages really break down to, but it doesn't matter - the basic point is, people look at the charts, see that they are yet again looking at something they don't want to acknowledge (because they've vested so deeply they are thus tormented too much), so they say leading things that they hope some Met will rescue the situation.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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this is insane...some of these places are getting days 40F below average. LOL.

post-218-0-05040100-1355931590_thumb.png

It’s funny how bad the winter weather head’s luck has to be in all this … I mean, considering that chart above proves there’s plenty of cold air to be delivered, the issue is thus not a lack of supply – it’s just randomness in the annual circulation budget around the hemisphere butt bangin’ away. Period. .

Last year’s December pattern bore 0 resemblance to this year’s – yet both years (at least so far) are finding the same result at the thermometer houses. Pretty interesting to see that. Last year Worcester Mass was a Kevin punching +6.5 above normal - this year, +6 through December 19.

completely different weather patterns, save face smacking. awesome!

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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How about those winds Friday morning? I know they won't mix down very well, but it's still pretty impressive to see 80+ kt winds at 925mb. 18z NAM 10m winds reach about 40kt sustained across the South Shore of LI and the outer Cape.

High Wind Watches already up here for Western Slopes and higher elevations. Our west slope communities should have no problem gusting 50+. When I lived over on that side we'd lose power everytime we had a cutter because that strong SE jet just rips down the Greens into the western Champlain Valley...you'll be very warm with broken clouds and no precip and high winds while everyone else sees no wind and heavy precip. Cool mesoscale feature.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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I think my favorite is when posters complain that the snow is always 7-10 days away on the models...how the models are garbage...don't trust them, etc....then they make 4 posts about how the GFS at 288 hours out has 3 cutters in a row which means we are finished until January.

You guys look at a lot of stuff, but if one were to have just ROUGHLY looked at the OP GFS, it's had this pattern pretty well for a month. It nailed the increase in storminess, did have a few runs where it gave us legitimate chances before they became cutters. CFS/MJO/ENS/JMA/Village People, whatever....it has and IMO is still pretty clear cut that we're going to struggle in this pattern.

The 27th gives me a little bit of a lift because of the air with it, but 3 days ago this next system looked happy happy too. And that's another cutteraroosky.

Realistically I think it's January 5-10 as the next window, but we'll see. It always seems to me that we are too quick to declare tangible change 1, 2, sometimes 3 times but eventually it happens faster than modeled. Hoping this next big storm is that one. I have no analogs to support my contention, I can't remember last week nevermind 20 years ago, this is just my take on THIS pattern.

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doug1991

doug1991

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Pfreak, my goodfriend is gonna be in vt from 22-28.his dads prez at vtc. We were talkin about stowe 26-27 or so but I may just head back to n conway dec 31 for two days. Ill be in touch wrt 26-27

VTC? Vermont tech college?? I went to school there in 91. There was nothing to do up there back then. Great snow storms though.

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