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HM

Meteorologist
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  1. So is everyone ready for this historic snowstorm?
  2. That barrier of confluence that multiple waves run into is a beautiful thing. So far, models don't show some northern stream wave interfering with that yet either. The last few times we had a 50-50 low, that ended up happening and ruining a Mid Atlantic threat.
  3. Yes, it is true I used to post here, EasternUSWX and Wright-Weather frequently. I don't really post in forums much these days (there are multiple forums/chats with everyone scattered around). Twitter is just easier.
  4. So there were a few major shifts over the last few days worth noting: 1. Models began to evacuate the 50-50 low quickly, producing a warmer storm. At this time, they were still adjusting the Pacific wave guide (which has downstream effects on key players). 2. Then, the wave guide of the Pacific began to tilt more to the right. The entire system has been influenced by the N. Atlantic blocking and SSW for the last couple of weeks. The quasi-stationary waves have been slowly retrograding. The set of Pacific waves this week will constructively interfere with that system and produce a big EPO ridge and NE PAC trough. This trend has slowed the flow down over the CONUS, enhanced the transient western ridge and allowed Canada to reshuffle a bit. 3. Now we are seeing the split flow / confluence look return as low anomalies dropping into the 50-50 trough reinforce the confluence. Hard to say what's next but the back and forth between the Atlantic and Pacific may have finally been sorted out on a large-scale. Now it's a matter of the individual waves and their interactions.
  5. Yeah, this is probably correct. What we know now is that a simple 2003-like situation is not happening. While the Atlantic blocking setup is just like it, and there are shades of it with the wave moving into confluence, 2003 was much simpler. So far, the models aren't buying a 1984-like extension west with the 50-50; but, the situation in Canada can continue to evolve. The flow has slowed down considerably, so it's not impossible to trend in that area.
  6. The primer s/w running into confluence is deeply entrenched in high theta-e / STJ. As long as this 50-50 system remains (we've seen a lot of adjustments over the last couple of days), we have a unique situation present: a system delivering lots of moisture will dampen between the 50-50's confluence and incoming second round of waves. The baroclinic zone would stall and wait for this next round waves and that could potentially extend the duration of precipitation. The tweets I posted of course were taken to mean that I'm calling for the second coming of 1958. What they mean is that this is a situation where we could extend the duration into a sufficiently cold air mass. A lot of wet snow for some location could be bad like 1958. The wave interaction is similar to 1958 on today's models; but, the North Atlantic blocking reminds me more of Feb 2003. If the 50-50 low extends westward and becomes involved with this system, enough to phase with it, then that's how you would get a situation like 1984. Oh and hi everyone.
  7. HM

    December Banter Thread

    I love Ji
  8. HM

    March Threats/Snow Storms Pt. II

    haha sorry man for that assumption. I'm tired of this guy.
  9. HM

    March Threats/Snow Storms Pt. II

    That connection has been long established. A simple search in Google Scholar will show plenty of research, before Cohen, with that connection. But keep buying into the hype.
  10. HM

    Feb 1/2 Obs

    Yeah those EPO breaks into the west NAO regions can be pretty effective. Perhaps that would happen this year if the AO was so freakin positive! You're right; it has slowed. These changes at the surface are definitely a sign of the slight adjustments we are seeing with the upper air features.
  11. HM

    Feb 1/2 Obs

    There's actually a bit of good news here: while the s/w did trend a little deeper, it also got more of a nudge. The heights across Manitoba/Ontario came in lower. It's possible this begins a slight nudging. At the very least, it will prevent an UKMET solution.
  12. HM

    Feb 1/2 Obs

    All winter, we have seen short-term trends that reflect on the progressive nature to this pattern. The hope now is that happens here and prevents this thing from wrapping up into the Lakes.
  13. HM

    Feb 1/2 Obs

    Heck, just some issue with convection/latent heat could wrap this thing up even more quite easily. I want to see something in this progressive pattern start asserting itself more upstream that prevents stronger amplification. I haven't looked at the GGEM.
  14. HM

    Feb 1/2 Obs

    Yeah, my area was smoked not too long ago and it led to quite the disaster up here. The fact that I'm in pretty snow colors doesn't bring me any confidence right now. That OH to PA 850mb low track will eventually cause problems here too.
  15. HM

    Feb 1/2 Obs

    Normally, the things I mentioned (more interaction in Plains etc.) would be a good thing as long as they bumped into a nice block. It would basically increase strength, moisture etc. But in this situation, we need that 850mb low over Ohio (which already isn't the greatest for snow climo in DC) to move SE. So these things end up hurting you guys. Honestly, I rather track a DC to PHL event than a PHL points north event for a change. It would feel more like a Nino this way.
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