October Comes Early: Late September Multi-Hazard Hybrid Storm

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

You can see a subtle inversion just above the sfc at BOS but thats pretty well mixed at HVN and GON

And this is the GFS. A further north track with decent mixing would put good gusts into much of southeast New England and maybe into CT. This is HFD at 18z Saturday.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

If there are trees or limbs hanging over an area where kids play, such as a playscape, and there is signs of tree rot or tree damage you could certainly make a case for negligence on the property owner. No different if you say hurt yourself walking through a parking lot of an establishment because of torn up pavement or concrete  

Good luck winning those cases. I've been on several mock juries pertaining to those types of cases. They aren't as cut and dried as you think they are. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Surf should be fun.   Don't need those ( likely ) hyperbolic ideas of "90 mph" wind gust coming out of some the usual weather pundits to be a substantial ocean risk for the shores.  This looks like a 48 hours of sustained 35 mph integrating energy into the tumult. 

What do the lunar guys say?

[Prismshine Productions]

Surf should be fun.   Don't need those ( likely ) hyperbolic ideas of "90 mph" wind gust coming out of some the usual weather pundits to be a substantial ocean risk for the shores.  This looks like a 48 hours of sustained 35 mph integrating energy into the tumult. 
What do the lunar guys say?

Keep in mind full moon this weekend... Conditions on the shore will be rough

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[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

And this is the GFS. A further north track with decent mixing would put good gusts into much of southeast New England and maybe into CT. This is HFD at 18z Saturday.

Definitely can't rule out 40-50 mph gusts inland yet, especially if we get that LLJ overhead during the day versus at night. Also will depend on if we are getting heavy precip or not. Its going to be quite windy because of the gradient but if we get more banded precip versus a rain shield, that is when we'll rip good gusts. 

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

meaning it's over amplyfing the storm and sending it in too far south

[DirtySnowDen]

This is going to be the Long Island Waddle, lol.

[Interstate]

6 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Good luck winning those cases. I've been on several mock juries pertaining to those types of cases. They aren't as cut and dried as you think they are. 

Yep... you would need to have something already in writing that you told the property owner about it.  If you have nothing in writing, good luck.  It is not like, it fell and you should have known it was rotted.  They need to be made aware.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

meaning it's over amplyfing the storm and sending it in too far south

ah, gotcha

Yeah, and I'm also waiting on the NAM's dependable NW bias to kick in, too.  we'll see

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Yep... you would need to have something already in writing that you told the property owner about it.  If you have nothing in writing, good luck.  It is not like, it fell and you should have known it was rotted.  They need to be made aware.

I can't go into details on the cases because I signed a confidentiality agreement But with that said there are plenty of people who view those lawsuits as a money grab. And it can be very difficult to get a "juror" to change his/her views on that regardless of the circumstances.

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Definitely can't rule out 40-50 mph gusts inland yet, especially if we get that LLJ overhead during the day versus at night. Also will depend on if we are getting heavy precip or not. Its going to be quite windy because of the gradient but if we get more banded precip versus a rain shield, that is when we'll rip good gusts. 

I can def see a SW CT jackpot for rain. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I can def see a SW CT jackpot for rain. 

There may be two local max areas within the region. Even some of these heftier models with rainfall totals, I'm a little worried they may be underdone. You get a scenario where that mlvl warm front sits over the region and you push the llvl warm front or sfc front towards the coast and there is going to be some substantial rainfall totals and the rainfall rates will be quite intense. Flooding could end up pretty significant 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I can def see a SW CT jackpot for rain. 

Lord knows they need it there! 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

There may be two local max areas within the region. Even some of these heftier models with rainfall totals, I'm a little worried they may be underdone. You get a scenario where that mlvl warm front sits over the region and you push the llvl warm front or sfc front towards the coast and there is going to be some substantial rainfall totals and the rainfall rates will be quite intense. Flooding could end up pretty significant 

Yup. That's exactly what I'm thinking. First max maybe over Long Island (or in reality coastal CT) and a second max up near Boston. I think the Euro is going to be robust. The trend definitely seems to be more amplified today so far. 

[bristolri_wx]

2 hours ago, Bostonseminole said:

so just getting back into this after years of boring foggy weather in CA..  anyone can tell me what is the RRFS model? any good?

The current one - no. They are already working on a revised version that will be more accurate. RRFS was supposed to replace HRRR but was never able to get there due to using the same FV3 core as new GFS, which also has not performed well.

[Prismshine Productions]

Thinking 10-15 G25 with 1-1.5" rain up this way

[Prismshine Productions]

The current one - no. They are already working on a revised version that will be more accurate. RRFS was supposed to replace HRRR but was never able to get there due to using the same FV3 core as new GFS, which also has not performed well.

There is a reason the joke during svr season it is the "Supercell Printer"

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[weatherwiz]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Yup. That's exactly what I'm thinking. First max maybe over Long Island (or in reality coastal CT) and a second max up near Boston. I think the Euro is going to be robust. The trend definitely seems to be more amplified today so far. 

There seems to be a trend to keep this warm core much longer and a slower occlusion. Very curious what the Euro is like 

[CCHurricane]

GFS has widespread gusts (mph)

• +50 for most of SE MA coastline
• +60 out on Cape
• +70 possible out on Nantucket

[Ginx snewx]

38 minutes ago, weathafella said:

In the gfs family it seems AI has been pretty consistent vs standard gfs op guidance.

When are people going to acknowledge and accept that the Euro suite handles the really big coastals better than any other.

GFS is garbage. Ryan's station downplaying rain has me wondering if they are missing something 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

There seems to be a trend to keep this warm core much longer and a slower occlusion. Very curious what the Euro is like 

My only concerns with keeping it warm core longer are

1) the SSTs once you pass Cape May

and 2) the amount of time this will need to contract and organize. 

We're not looking at pure TC genesis here, so maybe both those things are moot, but if you want tropical from a sprawling area of low pressure you usually need a lot of time. If this were hanging out over the Gulf Stream longer, sure, but I don't think we'll have that here. 

[Bryan63]

My mom's heading back to Boston Saturday night on her cruise, should be a fun ride!

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

My only concerns with keeping it warm core longer are

1) the SSTs once you pass Cape May

and 2) the amount of time this will need to contract and organize. 

We're not looking at pure TC genesis here, so maybe both those things are moot, but if you want tropical from a sprawling area of low pressure you usually need a lot of time. If this were hanging out over the Gulf Stream longer, sure, but I don't think we'll have that here. 

Yeah SSTs really drop off with northward extent and models don't seem to hang this over the Gulf Stream very long so I am shocked at how long guidance is maintaining this as a warm core system. Like Scott said this morning though, it terms of sensible weather this has really has very little impact on the sensible weather side of things. Maybe one thing it influences is the overall strength of the LLJ. If you're able to maintain a 70-75 knot LLJ and push that to the coast...would be some problems 

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

My only concerns with keeping it warm core longer are

1) the SSTs once you pass Cape May

and 2) the amount of time this will need to contract and organize. 

We're not looking at pure TC genesis here, so maybe both those things are moot, but if you want tropical from a sprawling area of low pressure you usually need a lot of time. If this were hanging out over the Gulf Stream longer, sure, but I don't think we'll have that here. 

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Notice how it gets deeper warm core at Z. That's the transition that is unusual. Something to watch 

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

When are people going to acknowledge and accept that the Euro suite handles the really big coastals better than any other.

GFS is garbage. Ryan's station downplaying rain has me wondering if they are missing something 

upton too, although I think their 4pm update will be stronger.