Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[Great Snow 1717]

59 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Absolutely ridiculous. So extra heat is being added from something that isn't established yet and is only in the developing states?

Would you bet against it becoming established??

[Brewbeer]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

CT is just a rest stop between Boston and NYC.

and it's so small you're in Bridgeport or Stamford before you need to stop

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Would you bet against it becoming established??

I don't know if I would necessarily bet against it, however, I would put forth some caution into the extent of what some of the forecasts are in terms of its strength. I think its just way too premature to start tooting around x,y,z are happening because we have a super-strong that is developing. 

I still don't necessarily see how a lot of comparisons can be drawn to how the atmosphere is responding to something developing, particularly when it comes to the ocean. There is quite a time lag between ocean-atmosphere response. It's not like the atmosphere is going full EL Nino mode because the ocean is warming...there will be some time before that warming in the Pacific has a full-fledged impact on the atmosphere. 

For example, most EL Nino's, particularly stronger ones will tend to peak during the Fall at some point and begin to weaken moving through winter, but its not until the winter months in which you see a much stronger correlation to the impacts of EL Nino.  

[Typhoon Tip]

DPs over IL/IN/MI    75 to 80

55-60 locally.   That air mass out there is heading this way.  I don't know how exactly how it's mass entangles with the Lakes and then tumbles over terrain for us... but I could see there being some convection on the leading rim of that as it nears.

[ineedsnow]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't know if I would necessarily bet against it, however, I would put forth some caution into the extent of what some of the forecasts are in terms of its strength. I think its just way too premature to start tooting around x,y,z are happening because we have a super-strong that is developing. 

I still don't necessarily see how a lot of comparisons can be drawn to how the atmosphere is responding to something developing, particularly when it comes to the ocean. There is quite a time lag between ocean-atmosphere response. It's not like the atmosphere is going full EL Nino mode because the ocean is warming...there will be some time before that warming in the Pacific has a full-fledged impact on the atmosphere. 

For example, most EL Nino's, particularly stronger ones will tend to peak during the Fall at some point and begin to weaken moving through winter, but its not until the winter months in which you see a much stronger correlation to the impacts of EL Nino.  

[SJonesWX]

4 hours ago, Layman said:

Mother In Law visiting for a few days?

he said noisy, not nosey

[Chrisrotary12]

4 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Holy shit 

This thing is still chugging along through the forests of Minnesota. HRRR says Canada denies it entry, but would be cool to see this thing survive and arrive tomorrow morning. 

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

This thing is still chugging along through the forests of Minnesota. HRRR says Canada denies it entry, but would be cool to see this thing survive and arrive tomorrow morning. 

Just an insane presentation still. Even looks like there may be a rain wrapped tornado 

[powderfreak]

81/48

Gah it’s so nice outside.

Drinking in these dews before the swamp arrives.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Deep, deep summer week.  Big heat, big dews, hopefully big storms. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm folks in here are getting annoyed by rhetoric. 

I say tough cookies.  One cannot be a verbal fascist.  People are going to be artful with their speech when they are attempting ( if not necessarily, just because they are human beings ) to emphasize the significance of whatever it is they're trying to convey. 

I also get the hunch that some of these same individuals would incline toward less hurt feelings on Jan 20 whenever the models are sending 30" snow total clown maps rollin' up the eastern seaboard. Noted for future analysis.   Beside, by geometric comparison, damnable descriptions like heat dome is what that is. It's a ridge that is made larger by non-Markovian feedback of thermal aggregation.  SO it is in fact an exceptionally good and on-point metaphor.

That said, though I do not read this person's mind, if by "super-charged" he means synergistic resonance?, he's spot on.  Unfortunately for the word Karens, it fits the grammatically definition of what supercharged fucking means.  It means taking a result, and adding to it.   Which is what a synergistic heat waves inherently do. 

I more have a problem with this paragraph. 

“The US will endure one of its most expansive heatwaves in history this week. Then another long lasting record breaking heat dome will plague #Europe again, back to back on its worst #heatwave in its history!”

Every anomalous outbreak doesn’t have to be dubbed “worst in history” .

As you stated earlier there have been higher temperatures recorded much more humid air masses and more dangerous/long lasting heat waves.  Let’s see where this one ranks when all is said and done. 

Now if we actually hit 100-104 over a large number of climo sites plus humidity that’s a different ball game.  However it seems like we do 95-99 for a week stretch every year. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Also not sure if it was talked about but the GFS was all over this mid to late week heat wave while the EURO had no interest in it.  Another impressive mid to long range win for the GFS. 

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, mreaves said:

We'll probably still get them - "Sunny and 88°, again"

Maybe.  My older brother was in the Corps of Engineers and during the monsoon season of his Vietnam year (1967 into 68) there would be thunder and torrential rain 3-5 PM, so regular that one could almost set one's watch by the storm times.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Also not sure if it was talked about but the GFS was all over this mid to late week heat wave while the EURO had no interest in it.  Another impressive mid to long range win for the GFS. 

Actually .. not disputing this at all but I did notice the EPS sending signals for back when it was over 300 hours. 

I posted about it around June 11th or so... I'll try to find it

[SnoSki14]

Record breaking summer heat in a super Nino... we're so cooked 

[Typhoon Tip]

On 6/14/2026 at 8:56 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

Some form of a severe threat, or just some weird anachronistic cyclone for this time of year with a lot of wind Thursday 

Emerging yet still vague heat signal after the 25th  

Here it was ... I guess it was mid month, altho I recall a wondering earlier because of the 'cadence' of hemispheric behavior.  At the time, the modeling didn't go as far as July 1 but it's one of those extrapolation deals.  Anyway, I recall now it was based purely at the time on the numerical teleconnector spreads from the various source, less so the spatial synoptic chart cinemas.  In fact, I recall commenting on it since then how there was a discrepancy - it's interesting to me that the indices "won" this discovery at a very long lead.  

The operational runs were in fact fighting this as near as 7 days ago, however ... that's not really necessarily unreasonable given it was still 7-10 days away at that later time.  But they were really just not interested.  GFS was first to come around.  

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I more have a problem with this paragraph. 

“The US will endure one of its most expansive heatwaves in history this week. Then another long lasting record breaking heat dome will plague #Europe again, back to back on its worst #heatwave in its history!”

Every anomalous outbreak doesn’t have to be dubbed “worst in history” .

As you stated earlier there have been higher temperatures recorded much more humid air masses and more dangerous/long lasting heat waves.  Let’s see where this one ranks when all is said and done. 

Now if we actually hit 100-104 over a large number of climo sites plus humidity that’s a different ball game.  However it seems like we do 95-99 for a week stretch every year. 

This is why I wanna create a kind of integrated heat content, heat wave calculation/index, so that these things can be physically ranked instead of hyperbolically so -

Having said that, I'm not sure  “worst in history” is wrong though?   

France broke all-time temperature records since the invention of the thermometer came to that region, not one day ...but on consecutive days no less.

Why is that wrong?   Seems "worst in history" is just about precisely what that was - no hyperbole.     

[dendrite]

On 6/20/2026 at 11:00 AM, ineedsnow said:

Brutal.. how will we deal with all this heat? 

idk...good luck though

[dendrite]

On 6/20/2026 at 5:50 AM, ineedsnow said:

Big heat is gone for awhile.. we tried to tell them 

 

On 6/20/2026 at 7:58 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s there starting late month right thru the 4th. Huge ridging east coast 

 

On 6/20/2026 at 8:22 AM, ineedsnow said:

Good luck! 

Pwned by Ditty. Ouch.

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

idk...good luck though

They try. It’s cute. 

[Damage In Tolland]

45 minutes ago, dendrite said:

 

 

Pwned by Ditty. Ouch.

How anyone couldn’t have seen that ridge building east had to have been drinking. We knew and we tried to tell. They beer and played with blue crayons .

[WxWatcher007]

The p&c numbers are lol. 103 and 102 at WXW1 on Thursday and Friday. I’ll go 100 and 99.

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

 

 

Pwned by Ditty. Ouch.

Ya its kind of hard to be wrong when you always say big heat.. its kind of like me saying its going to be cold all the time and then it eventually happens 

[ineedsnow]

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How anyone couldn’t have seen that ridge building east had to have been drinking. We knew and we tried to tell. They beer and played with blue crayons .

You always say big heat though so in Summer at some point you'll be right.. congrats though.. hope your swimming in ass sweat this week 

[Brian5671]

one thing you can count on here is all the agenda and spinning....

[CT Valley Snowman]

I'm thinking more like 98-100 in the SNE/CNE hot spots with the 101-104 type numbers further SW.  Damn hot regardless.  

[dendrite]

23 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Ya its kind of hard to be wrong when you always say big heat.. its kind of like me saying its going to be cold all the time and then it eventually happens 

"late month through the 4th" is a specific good call from 6/20 though.

[Great Snow 1717]

30 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

You always say big heat though so in Summer at some point you'll be right.. congrats though.. hope your swimming in ass sweat this week 

...some people  enjoy paying for huge electric bills....

#FRIENDSOFPOWERCOMPANIES

[Torch Tiger]

what a torchy 12z gfs run after the early week warm-down.  wow

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

...some people  enjoy paying for huge electric bills....

#FRIENDSOFPOWERCOMPANIES

…some enjoy paying huge heating bills…