Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[ineedsnow]

25 minutes ago, dendrite said:

One more

I'm willing to be you got all giddy posting that 

[weatherwiz]

Good morning South Dakota 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 hours ago, dendrite said:

Wow that’s quite the change. Good luck!

you're gonna need a bigger Thailand sub-forum  

[weatherwiz]

32 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Any particular reason for this? I would've thought that the westerly flow off the ocean would make it more difficult for Seattle but obviously that wasn't the case in June 2021. But before that event, Boston had a higher record than Seattle.

 

27 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That was an east flow downslope off the Cascades with torched mid levels. Everything lined up for them with that…they’re closer to Tip’s Sonoran heat source region. We’re just way more downstream. Even when they advect in here they’re moderated.

Pretty much what dendrite said. Also, add in it’s extremely difficult for us to be directly centered under the ridge so more often than not we’re on the periphery so that opens up the door for high cloud/convective debris. Also, it gets difficult to achieve higher end temps when dewpoints start pushing towards and into the 70’s

[weatherwiz]

Holy shit 

[Typhoon Tip]

51 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Wow MEX has 3 straight days of 100° for BDL.

B2B 100s for MHT

102° for CON, TAN, and BAF

Looks like the 00z ( GFS anyway ... ) gave back the petty shaves it was stealing off this signal over those runs. 

There's still gonna be risks of MCS decay plumes ... or if any wayward linear noctural anything sliding under PF's nuts. Those are built in risks tho.  Can't really forecast those until the evidence is obvious

[CoastalWx]

11 hours ago, metagraphica said:

Sold the house in Salem. Moving to Thailand. Wife (she's from Thailand) and I built a retirement home there about 4 years ago. No more snow for me. 100% AHATT

Good luck man! Keep posting.

[Cyclone-68]

Hopefully we can get a noisy visitor Tuesday night or later in the week. 

[Chrisrotary12]

45 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You just love to see all of this

99, 104, 100 forecast for ASH

[Layman]

4 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Hopefully we can get a noisy visitor Tuesday night or later in the week. 

Mother In Law visiting for a few days?

[Chrisrotary12]

14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Holy shit 

Go to the COD page and watch the 200 frame loop of the radar. It originally formed on the NE/WY border. Accelerated northeast, absorbed or squashed all surrounding convection and turned into this beast. 
 

Speaking of which…. What the hell is it? Lol

It’s not a supercell, it’s not linear, it’s like an MCB: mesoscale convective blob. 

[Cyclone-68]

7 minutes ago, Layman said:

Mother In Law visiting for a few days?

Ha. I lucked out. My actual MIL was a saint 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Go to the COD page and watch the 200 frame loop of the radar. It originally formed on the NE/WY border. Accelerated northeast, absorbed or squashed all surrounding convection and turned into this beast. 
 

Speaking of which…. What the hell is it? Lol

It’s not a supercell, it’s not linear, it’s like an MCB: mesoscale convective blob. 

It's like a massive supercell MCS  

Those storm tops may be exceeding 70,000 feet lol

[weatherwiz]

Looks like its about to split 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

You just love to see all of this

you know .. this reminds me.  I really wanna create an index:  Integrated Heatwave Energy.  

It would not have to apply strictly to whether 90 F, then 3-consecutive days.  Different discussion. It just borrows the name 'heatwave', but it's intent is to track warm anomaly in general.  This could be calculated for any degree(s) over any time(s).  And it doesn't have to be just heat.  The calculation can end up with negative (cold anomalies).   

It's not just for show and tell. The index could also be calculated for heat waves in the past and be useful to climate during this era of D(c).  Past data is readily available if not reconstruct -able. 

I'm thinking using hydrostatic heights over time, then combined with the kinetic surface readings.   This, because the hydrostats have the water already integrated into the column, so the enthalpy can be derived out of that mass, then added to the kinetic enthalpy of the time based integral in question ( so if it's 99 for 2 hours ...that actually is less thermodynamic total energy than 92 for 10 hours..etc). You could calculate for any time range. 

Something like that.  The energy that's contained can then be used to scale and rank these events. I bet there's been some dewy heat in the past that would rank sneaky high, probably higher even than some kinetic bombs of lore.  I've seen it be 95 in May over DPs of 53 several times.  It felt pretty damn hot.  But 89.5/76 dwarfs that for #of a Hiroshima bombs available to the system.  Could calculate that total enthalpy of your time range ( basically a integral of latency + kinetic, over time), then divide it by the Hiroshima yield, and then say ... this was a 100,000,000 Hiroshima event.  Although that title might not be totally WOKE   ha

 

[wx2fish]

35 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

99, 104, 100 forecast for ASH

Ill sell 104, but may get a shot at 100. Mixing looks pretty good. Should mix out the dews in the afternoons anyway 

[Typhoon Tip]

I understand the conservative tendency ... I'm inclined to lean that way myself just because -

However, it's quite soundly objective to consider that we live in a world with so-dubbed "Synergistic Heat Waves", codified phenomenological event type by ongoing attribution sciences.  One such characteristic of which ... the scalar ranges of the max of this type of resonant feed-back anomaly is that they exceed expectations ( typically ...) of either machine or man forecaster.  We risk missing this in our region ...due to our "unbelievability" that's part of our heat bias here.

We've had some discussion recently over whether that can happen here.   I think that's kind of risking a fallacy though.  Because it's not a yes or no.  Synergy is a quotient.  So a partial synergistic kick-back could be in play here - we just are far less likely to incur a Pacific NW, or France sort of large over-performing return values.   But "our version" of a synergy, considering that is taking place over top a background that increasingly favors them everywhere, may be 104.

[OceanStWx]

Finally got a clean pass from Sentinel of the Winni microburst area. You can really see a few areas of concentrated damage, namely Cow Island, around Fox Point, and sporadic to the east until just east of Gov Wentworth Highway. 

[VivaManchVegas]

I was doing a little snooping on the Noaa weather site to see if its possible anyone gets close to 80 dewpoint.  Wednesday afternoon has many in the high seventies with a threat of storms. Anyone who gets an afternoon storm, must walk out after and feel the jungle moister.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Classic EWR arm pit

 KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   6/29/2026  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 MON  29| TUE 30| WED 01| THU 02| FRI 03| SAT 04| SUN 05| MON 06 CLIMO
 X/N  88| 69  91| 72 101| 79 101| 79 102| 74  98| 74  94| 72  90 65 85

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Finally got a clean pass from Sentinel of the Winni microburst area. You can really see a few areas of concentrated damage, namely Cow Island, around Fox Point, and sporadic to the east until just east of Gov Wentworth Highway. 

Can we try again this week?

[weatherwiz]

This thing is like Pac man, just swallowing whatever is in its path (luckily probably not much). Thing seems to have a nasty RIJ

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This thing is like Pac man, just swallowing whatever is in its path (luckily probably not much). Thing seems to have a nasty RIJ

75kt ripping through the ABR radome at the last scan

[OceanStWx]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Can we try again this week?

Threat of severe every day I'm working at BOX? Let's see if I can't get Kevin his tree topper.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

75kt ripping through the ABR radome at the last scan

Maybe more impressive is that thing is just a ball of lightning. At its peak there were like 650-700 CGs in 5 minutes.

[Typhoon Tip]

Some guidance suggest the first day of 90+ is actually tomorrow W-N of any s-breeze contamination. 

I feel some of the guidance is low balling by a couple of ticks overall.   The Euro's inventing cu fields with transparent anvils ...enough to rob the top 3 or 4.   With 590+ dm heights under a capping ridge (i.e. DVM offset) it seems that could wind up too liberal with cloud production. 

Little nuances like that.   We'll see, but it wouldn't surprise me if 24 and 36 hours before each day in this Wed-Sat period, we see the polish on this return. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

75kt ripping through the ABR radome at the last scan

What winds can the radomes withstand before worrying about damage risk? 

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Threat of severe every day I'm working at BOX? Let's see if I can't get Kevin his tree topper.

12z HRRR catching on to the 0z RRFS?

[dendrite]

14 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Maybe more impressive is that thing is just a ball of lightning. At its peak there were like 650-700 CGs in 5 minutes.

Rough morning for this DOT station. Temp sensor blown into a tractor trailer diesel exhaust?

https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=SD607&time=GMT

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Threat of severe every day I'm working at BOX? Let's see if I can't get Kevin his tree topper.

Seems like Tuesday and Friday are best shots. EML in place late week. If we can derecho and blows groves of forests down and/or blow windows out of buildings, most folks should be happy. 
 

With you in BOX this week, we expect to see some acknowledgment of their CT counties rather than AEMRIATT