Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[kdxken]

26 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

Add the expense of remote starting your vehicle to warm up before driving.

Fuel mileage goes up in the spring.

Summer grade gasoline makes a big difference in my car. 

[vortex95]

11 hours ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

So July 1911 is probably the closest that we could get to something like that in this area then? Or August 1975? That 98F max at PVD on April 19, 1976 still baffles me. I wonder how hot it would've been if we had that same setup in July.

August 1975 and April 1976 had the benefit of low dew points and solid W or NW subsidence.  In the summer, it's very hard to have near record/record heat and low dew points just due to climo.  Obviously, August 2, 1975 was exceptional.  Nothing like that since.  100 even at ACK????  They struggle to even get to 80 in summer!

[JACKASS]

18 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Summer grade gasoline makes a big difference in my car. 

Though, driving a farm tractor, you can smell the corn burning, lol!

Summer grade is “supposed” to be cheaper because of gasoline being cut with ethanol.

[ineedsnow]

15 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

You completely missed the point, congrats!

Haven't had a change in rates here

[JACKASS]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Haven't had a change in rates here

Holy hell!

That was EXACTLY MY POINT!

Electric rates vs fuel prices.

[HoarfrostHubb]

51 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

Add the expense of remote starting your vehicle to warm up before driving.

Fuel mileage goes up in the spring.

Garage ftw

[JACKASS]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Garage ftw

Heated?

[HoarfrostHubb]

49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Do you keep your house at 40F?

I pre-buy my oil so it is the same all year (adjusts each June depending on their forecast for oil prices (this year is so awesome

My electric is highest in the summer, it will exceed my oil bill probably for 2 months.  But I also use electricity year round so in combination, my summer utility bills are the highest.   It is driven by the oil for the most part though. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, JACKASS said:

Heated?

Nope. But decently insulated.  Even in the coldest parts of winter it is well above freezing.   Heated seats ftw

[vortex95]

8 hours ago, kdxken said:

Gee I hope our heat dome isn't super charged.

"The US will endure one of its most expansive heatwaves in history this week." 

"One of the most...in history"  Vague statement.  Quantify it!  Look for these weasel lines/statements/rhetoric.  It reveals a lot.

What does "one of the most" mean?  Is it a top 5, 10, 20, 50 event?  And the heat is just getting started.  How can you know the true extent of it historically before it is has happened/finished?  

"In history" - which history (period)?  Since the last ice age? Since the U.S. was founded?  Since standardized temp records commenced (1870)? In the satellite era?  I have often found "history" these days to much of MSM starts no more than a generation ago or the year 2000.

I have no respect for people like this that push out relentless hype and alarmism and ignore context, perspective and balance.  It is bad science.  All they care about is their ego, monetization, and/or pushing a narrative. 

[JACKASS]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Nope. But decently insulated.  Even in the coldest parts of winter it is well above freezing.   Heated seats ftw

Heated seats are a godsend!!!

[HoarfrostHubb]

9 minutes ago, JACKASS said:

Heated seats are a godsend!!!

My wife insists our next new car will have a heated steaming wheel… I don’t get that at all.  I want the ventilated seats though.  Blow across my ass!!!

[vortex95]

6 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I more have a problem with this paragraph. 

“The US will endure one of its most expansive heatwaves in history this week. Then another long lasting record breaking heat dome will plague #Europe again, back to back on its worst #heatwave in its history!”

Every anomalous outbreak doesn’t have to be dubbed “worst in history” .

As you stated earlier there have been higher temperatures recorded much more humid air masses and more dangerous/long lasting heat waves.  Let’s see where this one ranks when all is said and done. 

Now if we actually hit 100-104 over a large number of climo sites plus humidity that’s a different ball game.  However it seems like we do 95-99 for a week stretch every year. 

Well said.  That a major sticking point.  Every wx event now is treated or pushed as if it is the "worst ever," "unprecedented," and "should not be happening,"  which is absolute nonsense.  They completely ignore wx history and act like all that matters is what happens in the here and now.  They prey on the cognitive shortcoming of "recency bias" to mold and brainwash the masses.

Also, there is a lot of $$ and power to be gained when you have problems -- real, exaggerated, or imagined/concocted.  Not to mention bad news sells -- the eternal constant.

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

33 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

August 1975 and April 1976 had the benefit of low dew points and solid W or NW subsidence.  In the summer, it's very hard to have near record/record heat and low dew points just due to climo.  Obviously, August 2, 1975 was exceptional.  Nothing like that since.  100 even at ACK????  They struggle to even get to 80 in summer!

Are you sure that there were low dews on August 2, 1975? I'm not sure how accurate this site is, but it shows 104F with a dew point of 77F at the 2PM observation at KPVD. https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/KPVD/date/1975-8-2 I just think that its kind of ironic how even with all this global warming that is happening, we still haven't been able to beat 1975, despite many other areas of the country (and world) breaking their all time record highs.

[JACKASS]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

My wife insists our next new car will have a heated steaming wheel… I don’t get that at all.  I want the ventilated seats though.  Blow across my ass!!!

Heated steering wheel is fine for about 15 minutes, then it’s overbearing.

[JACKASS]

Oh my god!!

We all get it!

All day, every day 

[powderfreak]

19 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

My wife insists our next new car will have a heated steaming wheel… I don’t get that at all.  I want the ventilated seats though.  Blow across my ass!!!

Hey I knocked the heated steering wheel, until my recent rig has it.  I won’t lie, having an odd satisfaction leaving for the mountain and work at 4:45am and it’s -15F… but that steering wheel feels nice and warm lol.

My wife always jokes I’ll go wander around Mount Mansfield in the brutal cold measuring snow and skiing, and then like a heated steering wheel.

I do want the AC seats though, ha.

 

[CT Valley Snowman]

My BOX p&c is 103 Thursday.  I'm a bit skeptical, but man that would be sweet.  

[ineedsnow]

another quake video from the other day

https://x.com/Breaking911/status/2071626498885206234

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

My BOX p&c is 103 Thursday.  I'm a bit skeptical, but man that would be sweet.  

I wish we could hit 100 here just to say we did it.. but not sure that's even possible 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, JACKASS said:

Add the expense of remote starting your vehicle to warm up before driving.

Fuel mileage goes up in the spring.

I probably need that up here in SLK. This winter obliterated my battery. That said, I like walking out in -20°…

[Dan76]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I probably need that up here in SLK. This winter obliterated my battery. That said, I like walking out in -20°…

Block heater

[WxWatcher007]

34 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Well said.  That a major sticking point.  Every wx event now is treated or pushed as if it is the "worst ever," "unprecedented," and "should not be happening,"  which is absolute nonsense.  They completely ignore wx history and act like all that matters is what happens in the here and now.  They prey on the cognitive shortcoming of "recency bias" to mold and brainwash the masses.

Also, there is a lot of $$ and power to be gained when you have problems -- real, exaggerated, or imagined/concocted.  Not to mention bad news sells -- the eternal constant.

A lot of crap does get thrown out there without context, and that definitely makes it hard to appropriately communicate when the true historic events happen. 

I think that for the most part it makes sense to use the written historical record, which obviously varies by location and quality control but is easiest to understand. 

I’ve personally communicated this coming heat wave in CT as “high end” or upper echelon if everything breaks toward overperforming, but critically, contextualizing what that means by showing the actual historical record for heat here. But I also lean in a lot more on heat index when talking about human impact. 

[vortex95]

2 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Are you sure that there were low dews on August 2, 1975? I'm not sure how accurate this site is, but it shows 104F with a dew point of 77F at the 2PM observation at KPVD. https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/KPVD/date/1975-8-2 I just think that its kind of ironic how even with all this global warming that is happening, we still haven't been able to beat 1975, despite many other areas of the country (and world) breaking their all time record highs.

I stand corrected.  Thx!

That makes the 1975 event even more insane.  Since you had the all-time NE record temp of 107 set at EWB and 100s on Cape Cod, that still would suggest sig NW flow subsidence, and yet dews still that high?

You wrote:
"I just think that its kind of ironic how even with all this global warming that is happening, we still haven't been able to beat 1975"

Ironic is an understatement.  There is more to the story, as always the case when you have front and center heated debate/problem as to what is what.

You could also say why something like the record heat/Dust Bowl of the 1930s has not occurred again, or why New England got 5 direct hurricane strikes from 1938 to 1960, and it has been almost 35 years since our last direct hurricane strike (all-time record gap). or why 31 of 50 U.S. states have recorded their all-time max temp from 1900-1937.

There are numerous examples like the above all over the globe.  How did such events in a cooler globe that match or exceed what has occurred in recent decades w/ the globe that much warmer? This is not rocket science or conjecture, it is basic logic.  These past events are a matter of fact, and can't be discounted/ignored simply b/c it doesn't fit a narrative.

What this proves is that the effects of a warmer globe are *not* linear and uniform.  The MSM and alarmists act like *all* gets worse across the board everywhere b/c of warmer mean temps.  That is an inane and vapid notion/mindset.  The Earth's climate is a chaotic, non-linear, coupled system, yet you get too many treat is as 1-2-3.  Example?  Warmer ocean temps and that means bigger and more intense hurricanes.  Yes, everything else being equal, that is true. What they conveniently ignore is changes to mean RH vertical depth in the tropics/subtropics, changes to vertical wind shear, and general circulation changes.  Ocean temps are only one part of equation for hurricanes.  Hurricanes, esp. intense ones, require very specific conditions, and everything has to line up properly. Throw one thing off (shear, moist environment, or SSTs), and that puts the breaks on this significantly.  And I would argue that SSTs are the least important b/c you have more than warm enough SSTs in large areas across the globe to support intense TCs, or a TC at all, and how many occur per year?  It is more of a delicate balance than one may think, and "more" (higher temps in this case) does not always work in a nice, neat linear fashion, esp. when it comes to complex systems.

 

[CT Valley Snowman]

16 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I wish we could hit 100 here just to say we did it.. but not sure that's even possible 

You might hit 96-97 if everything breaks right. 

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, JACKASS said:

Though, driving a farm tractor, you can smell the corn burning, lol!

Summer grade is “supposed” to be cheaper because of gasoline being cut with ethanol.

Actually I just looked it up. Ethanol percentage stays the same (rip off). The summer blend doesn't evaporate as fast. Apparently that's why it's more expensive. 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Speaking my language when we’re talking tropical

[vortex95]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

A lot of crap does get thrown out there without context, and that definitely makes it hard to appropriately communicate when the true historic events happen. 

I think that for the most part it makes sense to use the written historical record, which obviously varies by location and quality control but is easiest to understand. 

I’ve personally communicated this coming heat wave in CT as “high end” or upper echelon if everything breaks toward overperforming, but critically, contextualizing what that means by showing the actual historical record for heat here. But I also lean in a lot more on heat index when talking about human impact. 

Yes, there is a pithy saying "facts are meaningless without context!"  This is why knowledge and understanding is history (wx or otherwise) is paramount,  Things looks a lot different when you have this as part of your knowledge base. 

And I know this is cliche, but the longer you live, the more you see things better in this case.  You realize that "this has happened before, and we did just fine overall, so it is really going to be that bad or are things that bad?"   Don't get me wrong, there is impact and the negative, but what, do ppl really expect no impact or negative at all ever from wx?  Geez, what planet are they living on?  And you have to ask, how did we ever survive before the age of more advanced technology that makes us *far* safer and more resilient to wx?! 

This is the problem we face -- we have made great strides in improving things across the board for mitigating wx impacts, but you have this odd human tendency to just refocus on what bad or negative is left, and run w/ that, as if it way worse than before and the end is nigh. 
 

[kdxken]

Can't wait to scour out the comfortable weather. 73° / 53° and clear blue skies. 

 

[tiger_deF]

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Speaking my language when we’re talking tropical

Haven’t seen a more dismal (overall) background state for tropical activity since I was in middle school. MDR and Caribbean SST anomalies are the coolest they’ve been in years, subtropics are scorching, monstrous El Niño peaking intensity near late season.