Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[Cyclone-68]

Any thoughts about any nocturnal t-storm chances Tuesday night?

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

12 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

I stand corrected.  Thx!

That makes the 1975 event even more insane.  Since you had the all-time NE record temp of 107 set at EWB and 100s on Cape Cod, that still would suggest sig NW flow subsidence, and yet dews still that high?

You wrote:
"I just think that its kind of ironic how even with all this global warming that is happening, we still haven't been able to beat 1975"

Ironic is an understatement.  There is more to the story, as always the case when you have front and center heated debate/problem as to what is what.

You could also say why something like the record heat/Dust Bowl of the 1930s has not occurred again, or why New England got 5 direct hurricane strikes from 1938 to 1960, and it has been almost 35 years since our last direct hurricane strike (all-time record gap). or why 31 of 50 U.S. states have recorded their all-time max temp from 1900-1937.

There are numerous examples like the above all over the globe.  How did such events in a cooler globe that match or exceed what has occurred in recent decades w/ the globe that much warmer? This is not rocket science or conjecture, it is basic logic.  These past events are a matter of fact, and can't be discounted/ignored simply b/c it doesn't fit a narrative.

What this proves is that the effects of a warmer globe are *not* linear and uniform.  The MSM and alarmists act like *all* gets worse across the board everywhere b/c of warmer mean temps.  That is an inane and vapid notion/mindset.  The Earth's climate is a chaotic, non-linear, coupled system, yet you get too many treat is as 1-2-3.  Example?  Warmer ocean temps and that means bigger and more intense hurricanes.  Yes, everything else being equal, that is true. What they conveniently ignore is changes to mean RH vertical depth in the tropics/subtropics, changes to vertical wind shear, and general circulation changes.  Ocean temps are only one part of equation for hurricanes.  Hurricanes, esp. intense ones, require very specific conditions, and everything has to line up properly. Throw one thing off (shear, moist environment, or SSTs), and that puts the breaks on this significantly.  And I would argue that SSTs are the least important b/c you have more than warm enough SSTs in large areas across the globe to support intense TCs, or a TC at all, and how many occur per year?  It is more of a delicate balance than one may think, and "more" (higher temps in this case) does not always work in a nice, neat linear fashion, esp. when it comes to complex systems.

 

I agree with mostly everything you said, except believe it or not, this current hurricane drought is not the all-time record. That record is the 42 year drought between a hurricane in 1896 and the 1938 hurricane. But we are definitely very overdue for one to say the least! Also, it seems like the 1930s were extreme for both heat and cold records. You had the 1930s Dust Bowl and then you had the coldest temps ever recorded in February 1934. I suppose that there is a degree of randomness to everything.

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Haven’t seen a more dismal (overall) background state for tropical activity since I was in middle school. MDR and Caribbean SST anomalies are the coolest they’ve been in years, subtropics are scorching, monstrous El Niño peaking intensity near late season. 

Some lean times ahead in the Atlantic.

[vortex95]

So I saw the point fcst today for BOS, the NWS (NBM likely) had 104 for Thu. 12z GFS MOS has 96.  I can see 100 at BOS, but 104?  You really think going 8 deg  above MOS at DY3 is reasonable?

As I have said, this is not a classic Bermuda High set up, nor is it solid NW flow subsidence for big heat coastal SNE. So hardly a 1-2-3 fcst.  There are many caveats.

You have a dirty ridge for lots of clouds at times that can reduce peak heating potential. Waves of convection a wildcard as to mucking up the low levels across the NEUS.  And why doesn't anyone talk about this, at least for coastal locations?  A rule of thumb for sea breezes is looking at the sfc pressure difference between PWM and BOS.  For the biggest heat period, it is 2 mb difference or less.  That means local sea breezes likely, which again, reduce max heating potential.  Sure, BOS likes to flip at 5-7 pm to an offshore wind and the temp spikes, but that often knocks off a few deg for the high temp compared to if there was no sea breeze.

Oh, but NBM is "it" and to heck w/ human forecasting skill, knowledge, and subjectivity?  This goes beyond just the met science.  104 would tie the all-time record temp for BOS.  Psychologically, that is big, and makes the hype ever worse.  This has real social and economic impacts, one big one in the form of cancelling and shutting so much down excessively.  How is this a good thing overall?

One should not fcst all-time anything w/o a darn good reason to.  Models not all in agreement BOS will tie its all-time record high temp.  That's one strike.  Second strike, pattern recognition comes into play here, and for the biggest heat a solid Bermuda High or NW flow set up Like August 2, 1975 is historically needed to BOS to have something like a 104 max.  We don't have these here.
 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, JACKASS said:

Heated seats are a godsend!!!

Yes and I really like my cooled seats too. 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

My wife insists our next new car will have a heated steaming wheel… I don’t get that at all.  I want the ventilated seats though.  Blow across my ass!!!

You’d be surprised about how nice the heated steering is. And the ventilated seats are great. I bought a used Mazda CX-5 that has both. It’s probably ruined me for lower trim levels from now on. 

[vortex95]

33 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

I agree with mostly everything you said, except believe it or not, this current hurricane drought is not the all-time record. That record is the 42 year drought between a hurricane in 1896 and the 1938 hurricane. But we are definitely very overdue for one to say the least! Also, it seems like the 1930s were extreme for both heat and cold records. You had the 1930s Dust Bowl and then you had the coldest temps ever recorded in February 1934. I suppose that there is a degree of randomness to everything.

Storm #3 Aug 1924 tracked is so very close Nantucket (look at the track attached), it is essentially a landfall.  Splitting hairs here I know, but the RMW and core would be over land so practical purposes, this I think it can count.

As for 1930s extremes?

You want to talk about "wx whiplash?"  (cheesy made-up term by the media, but sometimes you have to fight fire w/ fire!).  How about this?

In ND during 1936, only 5 months apart, all-time record hot and 
cold temps for the state were set.  121 F occurred at Steele on 7/6
and -60 F at Parshall on 2/15.

 

The 1930s was a lot more than just the Dust Bowl for U.S. wx extremes, and for the globe as well.

[WxWatcher007]

HRRR is active tomorrow 

[wxeyeNH]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

another quake video from the other day

https://x.com/Breaking911/status/2071626498885206234

I think this is the most amazing earthquake video i have ever seen.  Seems legit.  I have never seen people being literally thrown to the ground.

[wxeyeNH]

Speaking of 1975.  I was 19 years old and a weather nerd.  I vaguly remember that.  I think it was on a NW flow with very low dews?  Also what was the date that was the old weather forum meeting at BWI?  That was one of the hottest BWI days but with very high dews.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

So I saw the point fcst today for BOS, the NWS (NBM likely) had 104 for Thu. 12z GFS MOS has 96.  I can see 100 at BOS, but 104? 

104 would tie the all-time record temp for BOS.  Psychologically, that is big, and makes the hype ever worse.  This has real social and economic impacts, one big one in the form of cancelling and shutting so much down excessively.  How is this a good thing overall?
 

Can I play devil's advocate for a minute?  To "society," what is the actual impact difference between 100F vs. 104F?

I'm not a fan of media, social media hype, etc.  But maybe I'm jaded and just expect some level of hyperbole to occur in any content we consume (social media, streaming, TV, even radio), whether I agree or not.

I certainly agree that it's way overblown, annoyingly so.  I take solace in the fact that it might alert the public to a very hot period.  Anyone without A/C doesn't care if it's 100F or 104F for an official high.  It's an urban area, it's really hot regardless of the actual value.

I think hyping low wind-chills can be a bit overblown too, but at the end of the day, the public knows it will be uncomfortable for a few days.  I always wonder what would happen if they downplayed everything.  

 

[vortex95]

1 hour ago, tiger_deF said:

Haven’t seen a more dismal (overall) background state for tropical activity since I was in middle school. MDR and Caribbean SST anomalies are the coolest they’ve been in years, subtropics are scorching, monstrous El Niño peaking intensity near late season. 

And where is the MSM on that?  Crickets.  You can't have both ways.  Selective reporting is rife.

[vortex95]

57 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Can I play devil's advocate for a minute?  To "society," what is the actual difference between 100F vs. 104F?

I'm not a fan of media, social media hype, etc.  But maybe I'm jaded and just expect some level of hyperbole to occur in any content we consume (social media, streaming, TV, even radio), whether I agree or not.

I certainly agree that it's way overblown, annoyingly so.  I take solace in the fact that it might alert the public to a very hot period.  Anyone without A/C doesn't care if it's 100F or 104F for an official high.  It's an urban area, it's really hot regardless of the actual value.

I think hyping low wind-chills can be a bit overblown too, but at the end of the day, the public knows it will be uncomfortable for a few days.  I always wonder what would happen if they downplayed everything.  

 

Devil's advocate?  Good!  Promotes more discussion and is a valid discussion position, and I take this position every so often as well! 

Yes, from a sensible wx POV, 100 vs. 104 is trivial.  It's like last year when TPA hit 100 for the first time, when they had 99 many times.  Is that *really* a big deal?  The MSM sure made so it was! 

However, nothing is scaled properly anymore.  You look at the MSM and so many on social media, slicing and dicing down everything to the smallest minutiae they can find to hype.  So 100 and 104 in a social or psychological sense *is* a big deal. It really shouldn't be, but that's society for you.  We have a very bad tendency to make mountains out of molehills and find issues where there is none.

And yes, it will be hot and impact and the public knows that, but to embellish it w/ all these stupid bells and whistles and prophecies of doom?  That is counterproductive and self-serving to those who promote senseless fear-mongering.

[vortex95]

26 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Speaking of 1975.  I was 19 years old and a weather nerd.  I vaguly remember that.  I think it was on a NW flow with very low dews?  Also what was the date that was the old weather forum meeting at BWI?  That was one of the hottest BWI days but with very high dews.

And on Aug 3, BOS was something like 93 at 9am, but a BDF ruined what probably would have been their all-time highest temp!

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Devil's advocate?  Good!  Promotes more discussion and is valid discussion position, and I take this position every so often as well! 

Yes, from a sensible wx POV, 100 vs. 104 is trivial.  It's like last year when TPA hit 100 for the first time, when they had 99 many times.  Is that *really* a big deal?  The MSM sure made so it was! 

However, nothing is scaled properly anymore.  You look at the MSM and so many on social media, slicing and dicing down everything to the smallest minutiae they can find to hype.  So 100 and 104 in a social or psychological sense *is* a big deal. It really shouldn't be, but that's society for you.  We have a very bad tendency to make mountains out of molehills and find issues where there is none.

And yes, it will be hot and impact and the public knows that, but to embellish it w/ all these stupid bells and whistles and prophecies of doom?  That is counterproductive and self-serving to those who promote senseless fear-mongering.

I agree.  The disconnect between expectations, actual official verification, and forecast are off by quite a bit.

But I’ll always wonder how much the general public cares.

[TheClimateChanger]

Hello darkness, my old friend.

[dendrite]

BOS only had a high of 89° on the 3rd. But ACK was ahead of their Saturday pace…97° vs 95° at 11am.

That ACK temp was pretty remarkable. Upper echelon airmass and they had a due 360 wind coming off the meat of the island. Once that wind went 230 it dropped right into the mid 80s.

But yeah Hot Saturday was pretty humid…lots of low to mid 70s dews.

[vortex95]

15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I agree.  The disconnect between expectations, actual official verification, and forecast are off by quite a bit.

But I’ll always wonder how much the general public cares.

I think much of the general public is wise to all the hype, but it's always the few that yell and screen the loudest, cry foul "WE GOT NOT WARNING!" and worry about everything, and that gets all the attention and skews overall perception.  Then you get knee-jerk reactions from politicians and authorities w/ silly changes and waste of resources.

Cases in point, Matthew floods in NC/SC in 2016 and Ida floods in NYC in 2021.  Warnings and strongly worded high flood risk statements out days in advance up the wazoo, and still politicians and authorities cried foul.  It just goes to show even when fcsts are spot on, you still get nonsense.   That makes me question this notion that more warnings are better from a social/political standpoint b/c you still get whiners regardless.

 

[vortex95]

2 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Any thoughts about any nocturnal t-storm chances Tuesday night?

Good ring of fire/NW flow/derecho set ups occur about every 5-8 yr in the NEUS.  Looks like we will have to deal w/ this every day in some form June 30-July 4.

One of better persistent setups I have seen in a while.  This stuff can get nasty.  Noted that Wed aftn, HRRR sfc-based CAPEs as high as 4800 in VT!  EML present as well (WxWiz is happy!).  The HRRR valid 00z Thu suggests derecho possible overnight parts of New England.  Don't let all the capping present concern you.  It is not much of factor for overnight convection when an EML is present.
 

One of most sig features of EML convection is crazy overnight LTG shows.  Par for course in the Plains, and it works the same when we get it here.

[WxWatcher007]

Big CAPE bullseye right over me noggin up here. 

[Chrisrotary12]

Let’s just hope these convective complexes make it to where 99% of this subforum actually live.

[dendrite]

Wow

[CoastalWx]

9 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Any thoughts about any nocturnal t-storm chances Tuesday night?

Congrats NY and VT.

[Chrisrotary12]

14 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Let’s just hope these convective complexes make it to where 99% of this subforum actually live.

 

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Congrats NY and VT.

Exactly 

[Modfan2]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Congrats NY and VT.

I take their sloppy leftovers of rain/light rain from what’s left of the complex 

[HoarfrostHubb]

9 hours ago, mreaves said:

You’d be surprised about how nice the heated steering is. And the ventilated seats are great. I bought a used Mazda CX-5 that has both. It’s probably ruined me for lower trim levels from now on. 

In the next few years I will replace my 2018 CX-5.  But it probably won’t be for the new one.  What they did to that poor car…

[Damage In Tolland]

Wildfire smoke is back. Noticed some yesterday and today it’s very noticeable 

[jbenedet]

1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

 

Exactly 

Not exactly— there’s definitely indication that the line bends southeast. Down to Boston in the mix for severe along the coast. 

[jbenedet]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Wow

I planted Texas grass seed in my full sun spots for a reason…

[weatherwiz]

Even the GFS has a quite a bit of elevated CAPE with at least western sections on the instability gradient. It will be an interesting evening/overnight, especially if the NAM sort of verifies with the advection of rather impressive MUCAPE. The HRRR I think has been solid with the idea of convection moving into the region this evening but I think this may end up being a bit more impressive than modeled. These are tough environments, even more mesos to handle