Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Maybe more impressive is that thing is just a ball of lightning. At its peak there were like 650-700 CGs in 5 minutes.

Watch 'em get 30 foot corn stalks along that line

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems like Tuesday and Friday are best shots. EML in place late week. If we can derecho and blows groves of forests down and/or blow windows out of buildings, most folks should be happy. 
 

With you in BOX this week, we expect to see some acknowledgment of their CT counties rather than AEMRIATT

Wednesday looks pretty solid 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems like Tuesday and Friday are best shots. EML in place late week. If we can derecho and blows groves of forests down and/or blow windows out of buildings, most folks should be happy. 
 

With you in BOX this week, we expect to see some acknowledgment of their CT counties rather than AEMRIATT

CT is just a rest stop between Boston and NYC.

[CoastalWx]

Mesos have some action tomorrow night 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Derechos Tuesday night and Friday?

Not impossible...  Friday's more susceptible.

Objective guidance has a slow leak in the ridge bubble, hissing as the flow pancakes going into Saturday; altho staying above normal overall.  

That goes from ridge suppression curvature, to more of a zonal W-E flow structure. No real cold fronts there... so heat languishes into the weekend,     ** unless**  the SW to WSW flow of 70+ DP plumes running up underneath, makes for statically more unstable environment from the IA all the way across and most importantly ... if it gets triggered.

If the heat doesn't break from something like that, it may be a slow rot exit.   Some machine guidance by the way still taps 90 on Sunday even though the ridge is remnant by then.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Mesos have some action tomorrow night 

Looks like right along the theta-e axis. 

What happens tomorrow night could end up setting the stage for Wednesday too, particularly when it comes to any potential remnant outflow boundaries. We'll have to see how things time with shortwave energy and even shortwave strength but Wednesday has potential to be a higher-end severe day I think

[Cyclone-68]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Mesos have some action tomorrow night 

We’re about due for our annual one nighttime thunderstorm per year 

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Looks like right along the theta-e axis. 

What happens tomorrow night could end up setting the stage for Wednesday too, particularly when it comes to any potential remnant outflow boundaries. We'll have to see how things time with shortwave energy and even shortwave strength but Wednesday has potential to be a higher-end severe day I think

Nah, Wed is a big time +d(hgt) day.  That's gonna drop a ton of bricks on any vertical attempt. 

That day's likely to be that kind of blue sky that sounds like arcing electricity.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Nah, Wed is a big time +d(hgt) day.  That's going drop a ton of bricks on any vertical attempt. 

That day's likely to be that kind of blue sky that sounds like arcing electricity.

True, height falls are relatively meager. Certainly one of the negatives to consider 

[OceanStWx]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems like Tuesday and Friday are best shots. EML in place late week. If we can derecho and blows groves of forests down and/or blow windows out of buildings, most folks should be happy. 
 

With you in BOX this week, we expect to see some acknowledgment of their CT counties rather than AEMRIATT

We give the people what they want.

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Mesos have some action tomorrow night 

Machine learning stuff basically has a chance every day through the 4th weekend.

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

We give the people what they want.

Machine learning stuff basically has a chance every day through the 4th weekend.

Not bad for a D3

[weatherwiz]

Actually I kind of like where that has the 30% area for D3. Looks like the instability gradient (talking about gradient between moderate and extreme instability) may be eastern NY into western New England. Something to watch because any development, particularly any cluster or complex, is going to ride that 

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

True, height falls are relatively meager. Certainly one of the negatives to consider 

Ha.  there are none.   That's the point.  Height are rising.   what else are you looking at? SPC? 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha.  there are none.   That's the point.  Height are rising.   what else are you looking at? SPC? 

was looking at vorticity rolling through/shear/instability...but mostly focusing on the shortwave rolling through as the driver for anything. If that shortwave is nothing or relatively weak then yeah we won't see much of anything

[kdxken]

Gee I hope our heat dome isn't super charged.

[Typhoon Tip]

oh, I see.   well, that's not like diurnal convection tho.  that's what I was getting at.

I guess an organized linear complex riding down is bit of a different beta synoptic drive so maybe that.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

oh, I see.   well, that's not like diurnal convection tho.  that's what I was getting at.

I guess an organized linear complex riding down is bit of a different beta synoptic drive so maybe that.

Correct, I should have been a bit more clear with this aspect

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Gee I hope our heat dome isn't super charged.

Absolutely ridiculous. So extra heat is being added from something that isn't established yet and is only in the developing states?

[Layman]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Absolutely ridiculous. So extra SUPERCHARGED(!) heat is being added from something that isn't established yet and is only in the developing states?

 

[mreaves]

6 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Best of luck in your new home! You've been here forever, will be weird not having your obs during the winter. 

We'll probably still get them - "Sunny and 88°, again"

[Typhoon Tip]

Wow day 1:   Wednesday ...

NAM's new grid numbers from 12z for BOS, 18z

54000574750 -0493 10 26 09 80 32 24 18   
60000655534 -0493 112612 80302518 

32 C is 980 mb at Logan's sigma, which given a sfc pressure is closer to 1015 or so, the actual sfc 2-m is probably closer to 37 C ( (72 - 7.2) + 32 = 96.x   not bad considering this conceptually/validly results higher than the machine MET for couple of cycles now.   Haven't seen the 12z MET but we'll  see.   In the past the MOS has been too cool when that's observed.

850 mb T ~ 21 or 22C here   ( 24+18) = 41/2 assuming equal mixing but I suspect the slope isn't linear. The above 24 C bulging skyward... probably expanding through the mid point so it's likely closer to 22 or so at 850.   This appears to match the objective guidance illustration ...  If so, +22C adiabat supports ~ 36 C 1000 mb T, so as another means to infer the surface ...that doesn't include the 2 C slope to the right during high proficiency heat - which this NAM run's definitely going to be on that day, given those RH field are all 50% or less.  Anyway, the NAM's 32 at 980 mb could actually be a tick cool (wrong) in this quasi synergistic potential/holistic synopsis. 

Bottom line is top heavy with temp on this new run.

The 26 conceptually means '260 degrees' ..which pertains to the wind direction - in this case at 2pm.  It's blowing straight out of Boston's urban anus right at Logan, and right around fart velocity of that 9 kts.  So if actually getting that particular completely idiot to civility location to be a temperature that represents what it's like walking down Cambridge Ave to the Fens, that's about as good an opportunity as you'll find.

 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Maybe more impressive is that thing is just a ball of lightning. At its peak there were like 650-700 CGs in 5 minutes.

Around here 10 per minute is a lot.  My only experience with anything close to the above came July 15 years ago at DEC.  The storm was 6-8 miles to our south and the flashes were essentially uncountable - at least 100 per minute.  Thanks to frequency and distance, the thunder was a constant drum roll.

Had a brief (10 minutes with most of the 0.16" in the first 2) but noisy TS arrive at 5 last afternoon.  That makes 6 days with thunder this month, one more than all of last year.  (Annual average is 15.)

[Typhoon Tip]

34 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Absolutely ridiculous. So extra heat is being added from something that isn't established yet and is only in the developing states?

Mm folks in here are getting annoyed by rhetoric. 

I say tough cookies.  One cannot be a verbal fascist.  People are going to be artful with their speech when they are attempting ( if not necessarily, just because they are human beings ) to emphasize the significance of whatever it is they're trying to convey. 

I also get the hunch that some of these same individuals would incline toward less hurt feelings on Jan 20 whenever the models are sending 30" snow total clown maps rollin' up the eastern seaboard. Noted for future analysis.   Beside, by geometric comparison, damnable descriptions like heat dome is what that is. It's a ridge that is made larger by non-Markovian feedback of thermal aggregation.  SO it is in fact an exceptionally good and on-point metaphor.

That said, though I do not read this person's mind, if by "super-charged" he means synergistic resonance?, he's spot on.  Unfortunately for the word Karens, it fits the grammatically definition of what supercharged fucking means.  It means taking a result, and adding to it.   Which is what a synergistic heat waves inherently do. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said:

We’re about due for our annual one nighttime thunderstorm per year 

We get them in February now

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm folks in here are getting annoyed by rhetoric. 

I say tough cookies.  One cannot be a verbal fascist.  People are going to be artful with their speech when they are attempting ( if not necessarily, just because they are human beings ) to emphasize the significance of whatever it is they're trying to convey. 

I also get the hunch that some of these same individuals would incline toward less hurt feelings on Jan 20 whenever the models are sending 30" snow total clown maps rollin' up the eastern seaboard. Noted for future analysis.   Beside, by geometric comparison, damnable descriptions like heat dome is what that is. It's a ridge that is made larger by non-Markovian feedback of thermal aggregation.  SO it is in fact an exceptionally good and on-point metaphor.

That said, though I do not read this person's mind, if by "super-charged" he means synergistic resonance?, he's spot on.  Unfortunately for the word Karens, it fits the grammatically definition of what supercharged fucking means.  It means taking a result, and adding to it.   Which is what a synergistic heat waves inherently do. 

It's more of the fact that everything is being blamed on something which has not yet become established and its not like these episodes of heat and large ridges are solely a response to EL Nino.

[Hoth]

3 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Go to the COD page and watch the 200 frame loop of the radar. It originally formed on the NE/WY border. Accelerated northeast, absorbed or squashed all surrounding convection and turned into this beast. 
 

Speaking of which…. What the hell is it? Lol

It’s not a supercell, it’s not linear, it’s like an MCB: mesoscale convective blob. 

Miniature landphoon? Pretty wild whatever it is. 

[Cyclone-68]

12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

We get them in February now

I think we got one two years ago during the evening in February and it was the most impressive thunderstorm (severe warned too) than in many years here. And of course that summer was very quiet 

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It's more of the fact that everything is being blamed on something which has not yet become established and its not like these episodes of heat and large ridges are solely a response to EL Nino.

In fact, El Nino summers tend to be cooler ... ? 

in 2023, some form of Nino was forecast to onset that summer, the whole planet jumped a half click C ( as poorly recognized geological event) before said El Nino arrived.

Yet to this day, I still hear the blame.   

Wrong epistemic/chronological direction. 

I think though that people toss around conjecture as though it were more substantive than it is.  Some are doing it because that's just how people are in groups.  Others because they're divisive.  Welcome to the human species. LOL

[FXWX]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm folks in here are getting annoyed by rhetoric. 

I say tough cookies.  One cannot be a verbal fascist.  People are going to be artful with their speech when they are attempting ( if not necessarily, just because they are human beings ) to emphasize the significance of whatever it is they're trying to convey. 

I also get the hunch that some of these same individuals would incline toward less hurt feelings on Jan 20 whenever the models are sending 30" snow total clown maps rollin' up the eastern seaboard. Noted for future analysis.   Beside, by geometric comparison, damnable descriptions like heat dome is what that is. It's a ridge that is made larger by non-Markovian feedback of thermal aggregation.  SO it is in fact an exceptionally good and on-point metaphor.

That said, though I do not read this person's mind, if by "super-charged" he means synergistic resonance?, he's spot on.  Unfortunately for the word Karens, it fits the grammatically definition of what supercharged fucking means.  It means taking a result, and adding to it.   Which is what a synergistic heat waves inherently do. 

Lol... I love it John... Spot on!

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Seems like Tuesday and Friday are best shots. EML in place late week. If we can derecho and blows groves of forests down and/or blow windows out of buildings, most folks should be happy. 
 

With you in BOX this week, we expect to see some acknowledgment of their CT counties rather than AEMRIATT

some may have a very dry week, too.  Stein a possibility