Typhoon Tip Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 5 hours ago, dendrite said: Hard L To be fair, the 'white' region is 'equal chances' which pertains to either above or below normal. I think what trips people up is both the structure of the curves of those, plus the colorization. both inspire warm(cool) depending where the orientations layout. But, that product isn't scalar cold or hot. It's purely a probability. And the below area? that's not overwhelmingly high odds for below, either. So scoring this based purely on probability, that's not really a fail. It's certainly not good. But it's not an F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 does anyone have access to the aids euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 yeah, there's a trend here to scale back the heat collapse. We'll have to see on that but ...the 00z Euro was extending matters and now this 12z GFS is definitely backed off the calving S out of eastern Canada look it was previously selling over next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_observer Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 NWS website down. EDIT: Came back up as soon as I posted this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: To be fair, the 'white' region is 'equal chances' which pertains to either above or below normal. I think what trips people up is both the structure of the curves of those, plus the colorization. both inspire warm(cool) depending where the orientations layout. But, that product isn't scalar cold or hot. It's purely a probability. And the below area? that's not overwhelmingly high odds for below, either. So scoring this based purely on probability, that's not really a fail. It's certainly not good. But it's not an F I preach that all of the time here. But you and I know what they mean by the maps. Their probabilities tend to correlate with anomalies. It takes a lot for them to paint any shade of blue on there in the 3-4 week window. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: I preach that all of the time here. But you and I know what they mean by the maps. Their probabilities tend to correlate with anomalies. It takes a lot for them to paint any shade of blue on there in the 3-4 week window. word - I'm mostly preaching to the others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 Looks like the NWS is now getting gated... jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 52 minutes ago, forkyfork said: does anyone have access to the aids euro https://beta.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf_aifs/850th/us_ne?run=2026062800&forecastHour=6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 98f frcst for thurs. Puff puff passSent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 7 hours ago, dendrite said: BOX has 104° in the point click for downtown Boston. lol GFS MOS has been trending down since yesterday for BOS. 7/1 12z Sat it had 98, now it is 82 12z run today. and gets it no higher than 92 7/2-3. PWM has been going down as well, now no 90 fcst on the MOS. Dirty ridge clouds are a problem along w/ waves of RW/TRW. Also onshore flow from weak FROPAs. You are not going to max out sfc temps what 850 temps suggest in such a pattern. It is unwise hedging so high early on given the uncertainties that have existed all along, esp. for eastern New England. It is better to start more modest far out, and then adjust, if necessary, as the event gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 Heat watches up for 5th period ... ? huh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: New England’s on Fire! ACATT is terrified cuz New England’s on fire! Rooooo! Na na na na na na na Na na Na na Na naaaa 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 7 minutes ago, dendrite said: https://beta.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf_aifs/850th/us_ne?run=2026062800&forecastHour=6 i meant 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i meant 12z Ha…I was gonna say. You know where to find every model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 Just now, dendrite said: Ha…I was gonna say. You know where to find every model. Where is the DGEX when you need it! 168 hr NAM...right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 Problem with big heat ..particularly nearing the top of physical plausibility ( which this has potential to produce ...) is that we have to think of it as maxing. That means by default it becomes easier to correct downward based upon least excuse imagined than it does to try and push the top thru geophysical limitations. It's true... one wrongly timed cirrostratus this, or the 850 mb hottest pulse ends up at 06z instead of 15z ... these thus become critical as limiting factors. Synergistic heat wave, notwithstanding. Having said that, this could cap out at 95 and bust the mid range hundos, and we'd still verify a heat headline scenario. So it's really a matter of bragging rights whether we make 101 vs "only" ping high 97s out of this. I don't think those 105's were really very realistic - ...or in the least, sufficed it is to say, given what we know of model tech error and biases at D 5-8 range, we'd need to have ti be the next day ( as in 24 to 36 hour lead) before a regional record stroke of that amount is confident. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 10 minutes ago, vortex95 said: GFS MOS has been trending down since yesterday for BOS. 7/1 12z Sat it had 98, now it is 82 12z run today. and gets it no higher than 92 7/2-3. PWM has been going down as well, now no 90 fcst on the MOS. Dirty ridge clouds are a problem along w/ waves of RW/TRW. Also onshore flow from weak FROPAs. You are not going to max out sfc temps what 850 temps suggest in such a pattern. It is unwise hedging so high early on given the uncertainties that have existed all along, esp. for eastern New England. It is better to start more modest far out, and then adjust, if necessary, as the event gets closer. Sure. But it doesn’t take much sun near peak heating this time of year to tag +15C on top of those 850s at the sfc…especially away from the coast. I’d be shocked if BOS/PWM end up that cool throughout given the midlevel temps. It’s July…not May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Problem with big heat ..particularly nearing the top of physical plausibility ( which this has potential to produce ...) is that we have to think of it as maxing. That means by default it becomes easier to correct downward based upon least excuse imagined, than it does to try an push the top thru geophysical limitations. It's true... one wrongly timed cirrostratus this, or the 850 mb hottest pulse ends up at 06z instead of 15z ... these thus become critical a limiting factors. Having said that, this could cap out at 95 and bust the mid range hundos, and we'd still verify a heat headline scenario. So it's really a matter of bragging rights whether we make 101 of ping high 97s out of this. I don't think those 105's were really very realistic - ...or in the least, sufficed it is to say, given what we know of model tech error and biases at D 5-8 range, we'd need to have ti be the next day ( as in 24 to 36 hour lead) before regional record stroke of that amount is confident. There’s really only a few days in the period of record (150+ years) where we’re pulling off widespread 102-104+ at the surface. I assume July 1911 everything went right for CNE to get all of those 102-106° readings. 850s must’ve been a solid 25-26C. With sun and no taint in the heart of warm season I just slap 15C onto the 850s this far out (for the valley hot spots) and adjust slightly upward or downward from there. I don’t see much reason to stray from upper 90s for the interior. Maybe an MCS or poorly timed cloud debris mucks it up, but not gonna overanalyze that in the mid range. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 90. 95 100. 105 whatever way you slice it, hot days upcoming. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 Maybe I can beat the 95 I had in Mayorch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 Isn't it fair to say that vortex 95 has been handed the baton by BrooklynWx99 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 52 minutes ago, dendrite said: There’s really only a few days in the period of record (150+ years) where we’re pulling off widespread 102-104+ at the surface. I assume July 1911 everything went right for CNE to get all of those 102-106° readings. 850s must’ve been a solid 25-26C. With sun and no taint in the heart of warm season I just slap 15C onto the 850s this far out (for the valley hot spots) and adjust slightly upward or downward from there. I don’t see much reason to stray from upper 90s for the interior. Maybe an MCS or poorly timed cloud debris mucks it up, but not gonna overanalyze that in the mid range. The thing in this case, it's not a uniform slam dunk. This is not a classic Bermuda High set up, nor it is a dry solid sfc NW flow (a la Aug 2, 1975). Eastern and western sections need to be treated differently. You can't just gloss over it all. The difference between 90 and 100 deg readings is non-trivial. You can't just say "hot" and leave it at that. There are important details to be worked out here. The above factors preclude going high-end record heat across the board at this range still. Of course, the MSM doesn't treat it this way. HOT HOT HOT and the world is ending.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 16 minutes ago, vortex95 said: The thing in this case, it's not a uniform slam dunk. This is not a classic Bermuda High set up, nor it is a dry solid sfc NW flow (a la Aug 2, 1975). Eastern and western sections need to be treated differently. You can't just gloss over it all. The difference between 90 and 100 deg readings is non-trivial. You can't just say "hot" and leave it at that. There are important details to be worked out here. The above factors preclude going high-end record heat across the board at this range still. Of course, the MSM doesn't treat it this way. HOT HOT HOT and the world is ending.... widespread 100s are likely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 Just now, qg_omega said: widespread 100s are likely Where exactly? Which day(s)? Generic statements like this do not cut it these days. The details count and the models can parse these out much better these days. From a MSM media standpoint, it likely is going this way, "NYC is going to be very hot, so that mean *all* the East Coast is going to be a super torch." Never underestimate the power of thinking a location is the center of the universe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 55 minutes ago, scoob40 said: Isn't it fair to say that vortex 95 has been handed the baton by BrooklynWx99 ? I can guess what you are implying here. Pointing out caveats or what could go wrong for events/forecasts is a reasonable position to take. It prevents one from getting carried away and biased from the "could be's" and "what if's" as one example. The "could be" and "what if" issues are *rife* these days on social media. People hide behind the fact that just b/c something has a non-zero chance of occurring, they should mention it and hedge like it *will* happen. This is almost entirely for click/engagement bait to monetize their sites and drive the algorithms. Or to be a "hero" to claim "I called it first!", despite going big every time, and use the broken clock is right twice a day fallacy. The vast majority of the time, the worst case or high-end record event will *not* happen, and one should start always from the baseline, not the other way around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 I’ll stick with my upper 90s 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 1 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 28 Author Share Posted June 28 You keep wondering if someone will hit 110-111 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said: 90. 95 100. 105 whatever way you slice it, hot days upcoming. At the end of the day, that’s all people remember. That was really hot. It’s kind of like arguing -10F, -15F, -20F etc. it’s all rather unpleasant for the public. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You keto wondering if someone will hit 110-111 Only if they are low-carb will they get that warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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