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Junorch obs and discussion 2026


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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I haven’t gotten through to Johnwow or Randy yet…I think it was Randy’s bday yesterday so he may not be sober for a few days. But it was faster yesterday morning too…almost seems like a bandwidth issue. 

Is it normal to have 8,500 guests on this time of year? Are those online stats accurate?

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Thank you for becoming an ICE agent. We thank you for your services. 

I feel bad for the few legit international people whose registrations I turn down, but 99.9% of the foreign IPs are spam, bots, or phishing attempts. It’s “American” weather so we come first. 

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Time to get back to summer wx.  Every day June 16-26 was BN, though modestly - the period was only 2.9° BN.  The previous 7 days were 8.9° AN so the 18-day period was +1.7.  Month's precip up to 5.35", first 5"+ since May of last year.

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4 hours ago, dendrite said:

00z MEX is starting to pump those numbers up a bit to open July…BDL 98, MHT 97, LEB 95. I had a feeling we would trend that ridge axis more eastward with time like early June. The Labrador taint is more of a bully in April and May, but this time of year I take it with a grain of salt in the deep extended when there’s a pig ridge trying to build in. Obviously it’s New England and we can find a way to F up heat 6 ways from Sunday.

image.gif

I’ll be curious to see what happens after next weekend. Does the ridge still retro or does become more stubborn. We’ll probably knock heights back a bit either way, but do we reload the heat after that or go back to normal/seasonably warm? 

#MeToo

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This is 105 hours away ... above 80 percentile confidence for a heat wave in general, and here...  we're banging 2-meter temperatures like this: 

image.png.19b3ff4ca79eaf0592138d2c0212279f.png

Granted, the GFS tends to over mix but... I dunno in the case.  Brian, any opinion? 

From what I am seeing ... the synoptic parametric constraints actually support something extraordinary here.  Sorry if that "hyperbole" offends a few self appointed rhetoric police, but it is unfortunately for those officers objectively true. 

+23-25c 850

W to WNW light d-slope oriented compression flow type

< 50% RH at typical ceiling sigma levels during the 12z to 21z interval(s), Wed and Thurs

We will have 0 problem mixing probably to the 825 mb level for that matter...  A the pure adiabat from a 25c 850 is ~ 40c at 1000mb. 23c is 38 and a half.  And these are not continuing the curve into the 2-m right slope where is going to be warmer in that sfc contact layer.  

 

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850s are probably 1-2C overdone since it’s mixing above that level. Still, MEX has b2b 100s at LGA, 102 at BDL, and 101 at FIT.

This is BOS metro Wed afternoon. I think it will mix out some with weak W flow, but I don’t think it’s exotic enough to pull off exotic records. I’m leaning 98-100 in the hot spots for now. Maybe someone gets a lucky 101°. Mid 60s afternoon dews with low 70s with the evening and morning spikes  

image.png

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Euro hints at nocturnal convection overnight Wednesday ... that'll pube the heat back if that happens but overall, the ridge integral is slightly more massive in totality Wed-Fri.  amazing.  

Friday's just nuts.  But again...these 2-m products are heh

image.png.f4b5d4bc2aece225a82dba66170af1c0.png

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So, the Euro has 3 consecutive days of 98-103F from interior NJ to SE NH, Thu-Sat.

It's interesting that the GFS goes full tilt on Wed, then backs off from there on out, whereas the Euro maxes later.    

I dunno.  I'm with Brian on those crazier numbers on Wednesday.   I see that this synoptically/circumstantially will be quite hot, but I think it plays a bit into the GFS tall BL tendency - maybe giving us a false sort of synergy there.    If we're still hitting these number in the guidance tomorrow, we'll see. 

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It's a SW ejection, yup.   Sonoran or New Mexico, just labeling but by convention this is a SW Heat Release ... you can trace the air mass back and see that.   I can see why the Euro has some convection overnight, Wed night, because there's undoubtedly a bit of (thus) EML over top. 

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