2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[osfan24]

Just now, Jake Wx said:

IMO it should be closer to the rates of the HRRR

It does seem like the Euro is too dry overall. Even the GFS hammer zone along the coast doesn’t have very high totals on the Euro.

[paulythegun]

It's actually a myth that Nina's favor the coastal areas. Randomness from not enough analogs. The La Nina main effect is a stronger North Pacific High, which is a slight SE ridge correlation in the cold season. The patterns aren't always uniform El nino or La nina either, there are many other factors that cause what happens. 

Thank you for this. People act like the storm is going to call up the Pacific Ocean tomorrow and ask it what to do. Nina/nino has a marginal impact on long wave patterns, not storms wobbling a little to the east or west

[Lucy Pull]

Wait to see what EPS does that’ll be the teller. Operational can be quite blotchy with precip and max/min areas will jump between runs. 
 

looked a bit better at h5 based on the above GIF.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It's the reason the storm is happening this way so it's completely relevant, imo

Well, maybe true to a point.  But a true "Nina screw job" would be something like "the storm which shall not be named" (Dec. 2010) where a coastal develops too far north or northeast for us in MD/VA and we smoke cirrus.  In this case, that's not what's going on.  The low is in a great spot.  It's more an issue of the marginal temperatures in the DC-Balt corridor at the start really.  We're not exactly lacking QPF amounts, in any model.

ETA:  If it were a bit cooler going into it at the start (not dealing with iffy temperatures early on), we'd all likely be looking at a high end warning.  Yeah, over this way we may not get the potential 2+ foot totals that PHL-BOS and the eastern shore may get, but we'd probably be looking easily at up to a foot all the same.  Even with subtle features like who gets the max bands, etc.  Just that those are "magnified" more due to the temp issues early on.

[87storms]

13 minutes ago, bncho said:

Euro trend from 18z yesterday to 18z today

I guess I’m in now.

[MillvilleWx]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And yet...these "improvements" don't seem to be changing much for Balt/DC. Snow maps still end up looking the same while improving west.

Idk how to put this lightly, so I’ll just say it….there will be a relative min for this storm due to the overall evolution and the likeliest spot will lie between the primary deformation within the classic CCB from the surface low and the norlun trough axis further northwest where the converging wind fields develop on the NW edge of the broad mid-level rotation. As of now, the urban areas and true central MD could be the min and the urban areas also have the UHI components to contend with. There’s a better chance for Baltimore to get hit with more snow than DC, but the premise stands. It’s one of the reasons I said I’d like to be east of I-83 and I-97 for this storm. It’s the nature of the beast. Best you can hope is the RAP and NAM’s are on to a broader expanse on the western side of the SLP. That could very well happen, so gotta see how it plays out. 
 

Snow will fall and it’ll be moderate to heavy at times before things collapse as the low drifts to the north-northeast. You’ll get snow, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see 4-7” inside 695 and 2-5” inside 495. It is what it is. 

[midatlanticweather]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's actually a myth that Nina's favor the coastal areas. Randomness from not enough analogs. The La Nina main effect is a stronger North Pacific High, which is a slight SE ridge correlation in the cold season. The patterns aren't always El nino or La nina either, there are many other factors that cause what happens. 

I suspect a northern stream Miller B is more likely than a juiced Miller A in a Nina pattern. That has been a problem in Nina years.. I agree there are many other factors though and one storm behavior is not a Nina thing in and of itself. That is like a record low or high being used for climate change proof. It is so much more. But, this is not relevant here and likely this is banter

[bncho]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Looos like climo favored areas NW of DC may make out better. But the overall distribution is expanding. Good trends to have so close to game time

mount mclean gets like 9" on that run. it's been showing up on the NAM and HRRR too. might be a local jack there!

[Paleocene]

2 minutes ago, snowfan said:

There are a lot of old ppl on here that can't keep up w that gif speed. 

lol i wouldnt consider myself old and it borderline gives me a seizure

[Paleocene]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Idk how to put this lightly, so I’ll just say it….there will be a relative min for this storm due to the overall evolution and the likeliest spot will lie between the primary deformation within the classic CCB from the surface low and the norlun trough axis further northwest where the converging wind fields develop on the NW edge of the broad mid-level rotation. As of now, the urban areas and true central MD could be the min and the urban areas also have the UHI components to contend with. There’s a better chance for Baltimore to get hit with more snow than DC, but the premise stands. It’s one of the reasons I said I’d like to be east of I-83 and I-97 for this storm. It’s the nature of the beast. Best you can hope is the RAP and NAM’s are on to a broader expanse on the western side of the SLP. That could very well happen, so gotta see how it plays out. 
 

Snow will fall and it’ll be moderate to heavy at times before things collapse as the low drifts to the north-northeast. You’ll get snow, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see 4-7” inside 695 and 2-5” inside 495. It is what it is. 

@SomeguyfromTakomaPark yeah, this is what prevents me from going all in. just don't see it, we have paths to fail. but its gonna snow so im happy

[notvirga!]

21 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Matches this well

 

33 in my front yard in Owings Mills

[CAPE]

Lets just roll with the Natty Blend

[Stormchaserchuck1]

22z RAP is looking really good at hr21.. west of the 18z GFS with trough. Sometimes RAP and Hrr get a little storm happy, but sometimes it does catch an oncoming trend for heavier banding as well 

[ThePhotoGuy]

26 minutes ago, Random Chaos said:

Just took some temperature measurements with my IR thermometer. My measurements are for just NW of Sandy Point State Park.

• Soil surface temperature varied between 29.8F and 35.2 F with most readings in the 32 to 33F range. This was measured after the sun dipped below the horizon.
• Chesapeake Bay temperature measured 33.8F (this is near shore on the open bay, not up a river or creek). This is the same as what I measured last night.
• My weather station has air temperature at 45.9F

I don't see temperature as a likely problem come morning near the Chesapeake Bay.

As a note, there is still snowcrete from the last storm on a beach near the top of it. I also have scattered spots in my yard that still have snowcrete.

 

Thanks for the measurements. I think our backyards along the bay should do well. I am just always so hesitant to go big with knowing our climo. 

[Eskimo Joe]

First radar returns evident on Charleston, WV radar along the Ohio River. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

@SomeguyfromTakomaPark yeah, this is what prevents me from going all in. just don't see it, we have paths to fail. but its gonna snow so im happy

Im not all in thinking we go really big, but that’s a serious storm right off the coast.  Always there are areas of subsidence and stuff, maybe we’ll get the goods maybe not.  

[baltosquid]

Hard to see but there's a member tucked right onto Cape Charles

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Lets just roll with the Natty Blend

You have no idea how bad I want that to be right, but it’s SLR’s are just too high for this storm. However, it’s QPF is very nice and even with lower SLR’s for this area, it’s one hell of a storm. Insane printout there. 

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Idk how to put this lightly, so I’ll just say it….there will be a relative min for this storm due to the overall evolution and the likeliest spot will lie between the primary deformation within the classic CCB from the surface low and the norlun trough axis further northwest where the converging wind fields develop on the NW edge of the broad mid-level rotation. As of now, the urban areas and true central MD could be the min and the urban areas also have the UHI components to contend with. There’s a better chance for Baltimore to get hit with more snow than DC, but the premise stands. It’s one of the reasons I said I’d like to be east of I-83 and I-97 for this storm. It’s the nature of the beast. Best you can hope is the RAP and NAM’s are on to a broader expanse on the western side of the SLP. That could very well happen, so gotta see how it plays out. 
 

Snow will fall and it’ll be moderate to heavy at times before things collapse as the low drifts to the north-northeast. You’ll get snow, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see 4-7” inside 695 and 2-5” inside 495. It is what it is. 

Yeah I’ve noticed even with better runs, DC totals still stay the same.  I’m prob gonna sit this one out. 

[87storms]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

You have no idea how bad I want that to be right, but it’s SLR’s are just too high for this storm. However, it’s QPF is very nice and even with lower SLR’s for this area, it’s one hell of a storm. Insane printout there. 

NYC is looking like it could be the real bullseye for this one. Seems like a near perfect storm for them and probably gonna have some insane rates once that coastal gets cookin.

[mitchnick]

Eps a slight improvement at least

[baltosquid]

Also while the euro AI did not move west really, its ensembles did tick west and a few members get pretty close to Delmarva

[ThePhotoGuy]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Lets just roll with the Natty Blend

A foot plus along the bay. Damn I wish this would be right. 

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah I’ve noticed even with better runs, DC totals still stay the same.  I’m prob gonna sit this one out. 

This would be as amazing time as ever to go grab a nice Cajun seafood dinner, sip on something cold to drink and light up the fattest, sticky ickiest blunt ever and just enjoy the winter evening down there. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah I’ve noticed even with better runs, DC totals still stay the same.  I’m prob gonna sit this one out. 

This is why I'm losing what middling enthusiasm I had for this. I don't care how tucked it is--if the coastal moisture isn't getting here I'm not interested because the norlun thing is for the elevations. 4" slop is not exciting.

[wasnow215]

18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It's the reason the storm is happening this way so it's completely relevant, imo

Why is it bad to talk about? Just wondering 

[Wxtrix]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So 3" to 4" (and 4" to 5" in DC)? While west of here doubles? That's not improvement. Haven't been in the pinks or purples on the euro all day.

it’s a huge improvement for me and a bunch of other people though.

[Kevin Reilly]

12 minutes ago, bncho said:

Surface output should be better on the euro, but the fact it's not a CAM is probably the reason why it's only good at best. We're stacking a 980 LP on itself (super dynamic, CAMs will have the best idea), and precip is only this heavy? I don't buy it. 

Yes Euro Gfs Canadian and UK type models at this lead will smooth things out.  What is happening upstairs at 500 is all that matters.  Now we move towards to dynamic models to track banding, temps crashing from aloft, and thundersnow. Quite frankly we are about done looking at Gfs Euro Icon Uk Candian models. The tracking is about to come to an end time to watch the water vapor map radar. 

[rjvanals]

We need to take advantage of the clear skies for temps and avoid LWX suddenly upgrading us to a warning before the event as that’s usually the kiss of death. 

[jayyy]

Bncho doesn’t miss. This kid just keeps on winning

BITCHIN’ nachos, man.