Is we back? February discussion thread

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m not wrong though. That’s what’s happened

Pretty sure there was a parade of kickers in that one. While this may be out to sea, this is a different setup.

[Typhoon Tip]

This mean is a bit of a reposition W.  Along with the spread ( in particular) opening up with more members closer to the coast, does lean more ominous..  06z EPS mean.  Some deep members there and more of them pulling/morphing the pressure pattern w-nw tends to flag where the correction wants to go, an aspect that has been noted when using ens means prior to other events in climo

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Okay how’s this:

Its coming. All 3 events are going to crush us! 

Not yet, But “US” is also a broad statement, I think most of these have a better shot down your way then here right now but I’ll take them one at a time for analysis.

[Massplow]

19 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

12z isn’t the end all be all but it’s going to be interesting to see how we trend

Having trouble keeping up, what’s the quick rundown on what models are showing what

[cut]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This mean is a bit of a reposition W.  Along with the spread ( in particular) opening up with more members closer to the coast, does lean more ominous..  06z EPS mean.  Some deep members there and more of them pulling/morphing the pressure patter w-nw tends to flag where the correction once to go.  This aspect has been noted when using ens means prior to other events in climo

So we are noting a trend towards favorable for an event.

[Chrisrotary12]

What.... no love for a thread for Friday night potential?

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

What.... no love for a thread for Friday night potential?

heh... the crack addict will always pack the higher dose

[Kitz Craver]

5 minutes ago, Massplow said:

Having trouble keeping up, what’s the quick rundown on what models are showing what

Both AI’s have a massive hit, not sure about their ens, Legacy GFS hits but kinda grazes, GEFS looks pretty good, Legacy Euro doesn’t like it, but ens have it. Ukie with an all timer. Did I miss anything?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

48 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Wasn't this week suppose to be mild/"warm" with highs in the 40's and 50's????

I mean the highs here rest of week are in the 40s so…while not as hot, still a warmup. 

[JKEisMan]

19 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Both AI’s have a massive hit, not sure about their ens, Legacy GFS hits but kinda grazes, GEFS looks pretty good, Legacy Euro doesn’t like it, but ens have it. Ukie with an all timer. Did I miss anything?

Canadian deterministic also has huge storm surge though a bit south. Its ensemble has some great hits

[Sey-Mour Snow]

55 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Wasn't this week suppose to be mild/"warm" with highs in the 40's and 50's????

This area has been 40-43 the past 3 days. Still will be 45-50 in parts of SNE today. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Started a thread for Friday night.  
Cory has one for the following possible event. 

 

[dendrite]

45 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

What.... no love for a thread for Friday night potential?

Middle child syndrome

[HoarfrostHubb]

49 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

What.... no love for a thread for Friday night potential?

Started a thread my friend.  Mine have done pretty well this season.  Hoping the trend continues 

[Great Snow 1717]

24 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I mean the highs here rest of week are in the 40s so…while not as hot, still a warmup. 

Rest of the week????

[512high]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Started a thread my friend.  Mine have done pretty well this season.  Hoping the trend continues 

Possible Plastic Red Met Tag on the way for you .....Keep these coming Dave.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Feb up here so far has been garbage, Need these systems to get further north, Would like to see this next one track over Ack this weekend.

So far, we're running behind Feb 2024 (our driest Feb of 27) for QPF.  Have not had a truly powerful storm this cold season here - closest probably the southeast rainer on Dec 19.  One could dispute my comment, citing 19.6" on Jan 25-27, but that was a product of freaky high ratios.  LE of 0.77" and 10 mph breezes don't spell powerful to me. 
(That said, the 6 hours of floating feathers 7A-1P on Jan 26 is the prettiest spell of snowfall I can remember.  That 6" addition was 98.5% air, far beyond any air/water ratio for a snowfall greater than one inch.)

[klw]

1.3 here this morning

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

42 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Rest of the week????

Yea mid to upper 40s yesterday and today then low 40s tomorrow and thursday. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Saturday looks kinda warm here, but CMC would work. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Kitz Craver said:

Both AI’s have a massive hit, not sure about their ens, Legacy GFS hits but kinda grazes, GEFS looks pretty good, Legacy Euro doesn’t like it, but ens have it. Ukie with an all timer. Did I miss anything?

GFS annihilation 

[WxWatcher007]

GFS winding up for the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe after our HECS  

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

GFS winding up for the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe after our HECS  

Both gfs and Canadian have been hitting that system. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Both gfs and Canadian have been hitting that system. 

Sure enough, once the Arctic press yields we start to see numerous options begin to appear as we roll the dice. Today's runs notwithstanding, I love the pattern as we end this month. Not everything needs to be a nuclear detonation off the coast. You get enough modest events sprinkled in and we'll be at climo for the first time in half a decade with March on deck. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Realistically we got ~7-8 weeks left were we all can see snow chances (up to the first weekend in April like the last two years)... Regardless about to be a very busy two weeks

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[DavisStraight]

GFS has a pretty good cold shot towards end of month. Let's build up the pack first.

[dryslot]

Get the euro onboard then i'll have more interest in the upcoming systems once we get past that 50 mile wide swath event  tomorrow.

[mahk_webstah]

27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

GFS winding up for the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe after our HECS  

Doesn’t have to be either or.  Could be both end, or nope!

[vortex95]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Because once it locks in, it’s coming. 

CoastalWx concern is the 12z ECMWF op still not on board!!!  What can go wrong, will! 

This is not as straightforward as it seems, the Fri event could muck up things enough so a flatter ECMWF could happen.

[tavwtby]

first day over 45 here since early November I believe, came close in January but just under, that's a hell of a run under 45 degrees, a huge avalanche of snow came off the church down the street and creamed a couple cars pretty bad, it was like a 20x30x16" plate of snow, crazy.