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Is we back? February discussion thread


mahk_webstah
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This mean is a bit of a reposition W.  Along with the spread ( in particular) opening up with more members closer to the coast, does lean more ominous..  06z EPS mean.  Some deep members there and more of them pulling/morphing the pressure pattern w-nw tends to flag where the correction wants to go, an aspect that has been noted when using ens means prior to other events in climo

image.png.8ca00ae24841c12d28931f4fa279b4de.png

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2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Okay how’s this:

Its coming. All 3 events are going to crush us! :snowing::snowing::snowing::snowing:

Not yet, But “US” is also a broad statement, I think most of these have a better shot down your way then here right now but I’ll take them one at a time for analysis.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This mean is a bit of a reposition W.  Along with the spread ( in particular) opening up with more members closer to the coast, does lean more ominous..  06z EPS mean.  Some deep members there and more of them pulling/morphing the pressure patter w-nw tends to flag where the correction once to go.  This aspect has been noted when using ens means prior to other events in climo

image.png.8ca00ae24841c12d28931f4fa279b4de.png

So we are noting a trend towards favorable for an event.

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5 minutes ago, Massplow said:

Having trouble keeping up, what’s the quick rundown on what models are showing what

Both AI’s have a massive hit, not sure about their ens, Legacy GFS hits but kinda grazes, GEFS looks pretty good, Legacy Euro doesn’t like it, but ens have it. Ukie with an all timer. Did I miss anything?

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19 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Both AI’s have a massive hit, not sure about their ens, Legacy GFS hits but kinda grazes, GEFS looks pretty good, Legacy Euro doesn’t like it, but ens have it. Ukie with an all timer. Did I miss anything?

Canadian deterministic also has huge storm surge though a bit south. Its ensemble has some great hits

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Feb up here so far has been garbage, Need these systems to get further north, Would like to see this next one track over Ack this weekend.

So far, we're running behind Feb 2024 (our driest Feb of 27) for QPF.  Have not had a truly powerful storm this cold season here - closest probably the southeast rainer on Dec 19.  One could dispute my comment, citing 19.6" on Jan 25-27, but that was a product of freaky high ratios.  LE of 0.77" and 10 mph breezes don't spell powerful to me. 
(That said, the 6 hours of floating feathers 7A-1P on Jan 26 is the prettiest spell of snowfall I can remember.  That 6" addition was 98.5% air, far beyond any air/water ratio for a snowfall greater than one inch.)

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1 hour ago, Kitz Craver said:

Both AI’s have a massive hit, not sure about their ens, Legacy GFS hits but kinda grazes, GEFS looks pretty good, Legacy Euro doesn’t like it, but ens have it. Ukie with an all timer. Did I miss anything?

GFS annihilation 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Both gfs and Canadian have been hitting that system. 

Sure enough, once the Arctic press yields we start to see numerous options begin to appear as we roll the dice. Today's runs notwithstanding, I love the pattern as we end this month. Not everything needs to be a nuclear detonation off the coast. You get enough modest events sprinkled in and we'll be at climo for the first time in half a decade with March on deck. 

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4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Because once it locks in, it’s coming. 

CoastalWx concern is the 12z ECMWF op still no on board!!!  What can go wrong, will! :D

This is not as straightforward as it seems, the Fri event could muck up things enough so a flatter ECMWF could happen.

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