It's coming 1/31-2/1

[jm1220]

Just now, mikem81 said:

Not sure exactly what to make of this, but tomorrow is really last day for material changes from OTS to coastal. Its not going from nothing to storm in last 72 hours. Boxing Day was a long time ago and im hoping the models have improved since then

We don’t need massive changes lol. EPS getting less impressive is a bummer but we really do just need some small changes in the timing of the upper low cutting off/further NE and the kicker being a little slower and spaced apart from our storm. It’s not like last winter where we had a few phantom MECS runs we all wanted to believe but based on the pattern we knew it was bogus. 

[lee59]

Wasn't this time last week that all that snow we see on the ground was probably going to go to our south.

[mikem81]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We don’t need massive changes lol. EPS getting less impressive is a bummer but we really do just need some small changes in the timing of the upper low cutting off/further NE and the kicker being a little slower and spaced apart from our storm. It’s not like last winter where we had a few phantom MECS runs we all wanted to believe but based on the pattern we knew it was bogus. 

Can you show this on the current model map? Would be curious what pieces we actually need to change and why the GFS is showing close to a major blizzard (still escapes east 6 hours early) versus the complete miss Euro/UK solutions

[Prue11]

Nothing is impossible in meteorology lol let’s see how this plays out the next couple days 

[mikem81]

4 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Wasn't this time last week that all that snow we see on the ground was probably going to go to our south.

Last Tuesday 12Z EURO (it ended up further north by 100 miles or so, but not 500 miles)

ECMWF Model – MSLP & Precip for Northeast U.S. | Tropical Tidbits

[mikem81]

1 minute ago, Prue11 said:

Nothing is impossible in meteorology lol let’s see how this plays out the next couple days 

The GFS was 500 miles off on the other hand....

GFS Model – MSLP & Precip for Eastern U.S. | Tropical Tidbits

[Nibor]

6 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Can you show this on the current model map? Would be curious what pieces we actually need to change and why the GFS is showing close to a major blizzard (still escapes east 6 hours early) versus the complete miss Euro/UK solutions

 

1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

If the meat of that developing advection lobe continues to trend west along the major axis here, the surface depiction will change in a hurry. Notable improvement at H5 already (in the same direction as the GFS/AIGFS, even if the ECAIFS only nudged a bit initially). Holding it back right now a bit is the trend in the lobe over SE Canada.

 

[nycsnow]

Would give it til tomorrow, but writings on wall 

[Metasequoia]

FWIW - NOAA gives NYC a ~50% chance of snow for Saturday night and Sunday.

[donsutherland1]

There remains potential for snowfall on Sunday in the New York City area with an even higher probability of snowfall across eastern Long Island. What's fairly certain is that a storm will develop somewhere along the Southeast coast and possibly become quite deep. What's uncertain and subject to synoptic details (the placement of vorticity maxima, 500 mb low, etc.) that the guidance can't reliably resolve at the current lead time is the exact location where the storm will develop and its ultimate track. By Thursday, the guidance should be moving into a more skillful lead time.

As a result, there are varying solutions. Several models now take the storm out to sea with no impact on the New York City area. Others graze the region, possibly with several inches of snow. The 18z NBM even brings close to 0.50" QPF to New York City. This large spread reflects the degree of uncertainty that still exists. 

Although it looks less likely that this will be a blockbuster storm, writing the event off completely goes beyond what can reasonably be supported by the models and their ensembles. 

Here's the latest WPC probabilistic assessment of a moderate impact:

 

[jdj5211]

Can we change the title of this thread to:

It’s not coming 1/31-2/1

Please….


.

[mahk_webstah]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

There remains potential for snowfall on Sunday in the New York City area with an even higher probability of snowfall across eastern Long Island. What's fairly certain is that a storm will develop somewhere along the Southeast coast and possibly become quite deep. What's uncertain and subject to synoptic details (the placement of vorticity maxima, 500 mb low, etc.) that the guidance can't reliably resolve at the current lead time is the exact location where the storm will develop and its ultimate track. By Thursday, the guidance should be moving into a more skillful lead time.

As a result, there are varying solutions. Several models now take the storm out to sea with no impact on the New York City area. Others graze the region, possibly with several inches of snow. The 18z NBM even brings close to 0.50" QPF to New York City. This large spread reflects the degree of uncertainty that still exists. 

Although it looks less likely that this will be a blockbuster storm, writing the event off completely goes beyond what can reasonably be supported by the models and their ensembles. 

Here's the latest WPC probabilistic assessment of a moderate impact:

 

I think that is good advice. I like the WPC because they don’t change their view in a haphazard way. I think eastern areas should still have a good sense of optimism. If we can get a little bit of a tick to the west or at least not lose any ground between now and Wednesday then, as you said the early Thursday model runs, will probably tell the tale.

[SACRUS]

Reflective of recent guidance 

 

[mikem81]

1 hour ago, Nibor said:

 

 

The problem is that this lobe in trending weaker and north and east not stronger and west

[Franklin0529]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Reflective of recent guidance 

 

Coastal Jersey an long Island should feel better then everyone else 

[Franklin0529]

Discussion

The ongoing settling of cold surface high pressure and additional
surges in the wake of the historic winter storm will maintain
dangerously cold temperatures for the central and eastern U.S. well
into next week as per the Climate Prediction Center. The airmass
may be more prolonged in areas with widespread snow/ice coverage
and enhanced radiational cooling. Amplified mean troughing aloft
will meanwhile bring rounds of weak to moderate clipper system
snows from the north-central U.S. to the Great Lakes.

In this anomalously cold pattern, there is potential for wintry
precipitation into the Gulf Coast states late week as upper trough
translation leads into northern Gulf frontal wave genesis. Wave
progression downstream and trough/closed low development aloft is
now increasingly likely to set the environment to produce a
significant Eastern Seaboard Coastal Winter storm expected to
rapidly deepen while lifting over the western Atlantic off the
Southeast Saturday and Mid-Atlantic/New England Sunday. Uncertainty
has improved but remains with the exact track of the low which
impacts the onshore wintry precipitation focus and footprint.
However,
the growing consensus at this time is for heavy snow potential
from the eastern Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic through coastal southern
New England. The forecast strength of the deep low suggests high
winds/waves and coastal flooding would also be expected.

[mikem81]

2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Discussion

The ongoing settling of cold surface high pressure and additional
surges in the wake of the historic winter storm will maintain
dangerously cold temperatures for the central and eastern U.S. well
into next week as per the Climate Prediction Center. The airmass
may be more prolonged in areas with widespread snow/ice coverage
and enhanced radiational cooling. Amplified mean troughing aloft
will meanwhile bring rounds of weak to moderate clipper system
snows from the north-central U.S. to the Great Lakes.

In this anomalously cold pattern, there is potential for wintry
precipitation into the Gulf Coast states late week as upper trough
translation leads into northern Gulf frontal wave genesis. Wave
progression downstream and trough/closed low development aloft is
now increasingly likely to set the environment to produce a
significant Eastern Seaboard Coastal Winter storm expected to
rapidly deepen while lifting over the western Atlantic off the
Southeast Saturday and Mid-Atlantic/New England Sunday. Uncertainty
has improved but remains with the exact track of the low which
impacts the onshore wintry precipitation focus and footprint.
However,
the growing consensus at this time is for heavy snow potential
from the eastern Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic through coastal southern
New England. The forecast strength of the deep low suggests high
winds/waves and coastal flooding would also be expected.

Cant imagine this was written after the 12Z guidance

[Rjay]

24 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

Can we change the title of this thread to:

It’s not coming 1/31-2/1

Please….


.

To psych out the storm?

[rclab]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

To psych out the storm?

You can leave it ….There’s no year in the title. As always …..

 

[North and West]

To psych out the storm?

It needs to feel the fear.


.

[mikem81]

The orientation of the trough coming down from SE Canada continues to trend more and more NW to SE as opposed to E to W as it lowers in the Upper Midwest. I think this is being caused by a lobe in SE canada but cant confirm.  Its on the EC and not GFS as shown below

EC-AIFS Model – Z500, Vort, & Wind for Eastern U.S. | Tropical Tidbits

AIGFS Model – Z500, Vort, & Wind for Eastern U.S. | Tropical Tidbits

[deathstar9]

28 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Reflective of recent guidance 

 

Looks like a Jan 2018 redux.

[NJwx85]

Statistically speaking, most Miller A storms are coastal scrapers or total misses. The only recent exception I can think of was 2/1/21.