It's coming 1/31-2/1

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I’m kind of hoping this one misses. The piles at the end of my driveway are already shoulder high and I’m running out of room. With temps this week bitterly cold not much will melt. Starting to worry about my roof collapsing.

it might not totally "miss" AND there is a reason a HECS has never verified a week  after a MECS in NYC in recorded history . Very unlikely . BUT not impossible. IMO

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

it might not totally "miss" AND there is a reason a HECS has never verified a week  after a MECS in NYC in recorded history . Very unlikely . BUT not impossible. IMO

It's coming 

[Winterweatherlover]

11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

My main concern now is too much of a NW move down in the SE over time.  We don't want to see places like BHM/ATL/BNA getting accumulating snow from this, if that happens there would be a higher chance this has mixing issues up here.

So you think the low will track due north or almost due north?

[SACRUS]

we'll see if the gefs/gfs shift the qpf west next update

 

[NEG NAO]

23 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Not to be an ass, but your roof must be pretty unstable.  This is pure fluff for the time being.

sounds like a flat roof to me - most of the sloped roofs lose the snow faster especially south facing ones

[NEG NAO]

The EURO AI moved east from 18Z - this thing has to take on a more negative tilt IMO.

[DreamBig]

Euro trending OTS also

[DreamBig]

Whoops. Nvm. At 114 pulls the low back to the coast

[psv88]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

I’m kind of hoping this one misses. The piles at the end of my driveway are already shoulder high and I’m running out of room. With temps this week bitterly cold not much will melt. Starting to worry about my roof collapsing.

What? Your roof should be able to hold at least 3-4 feet of snow. You’ll be fine 

[NEG NAO]

8 minutes ago, DreamBig said:

Whoops. Nvm. At 114 pulls the low back to the coast

The lp on 0Z Euro went from a 995 to a 983 stalled off NC coast in 6 hours - BUT 12 hours later deepens to 962mb moving east - weird solution and progressive flow that L near Minnesota is not a good signal with HP in southeast Canada - too far north

[DreamBig]

Euro trended east, ots

[SI Mailman]

Looks like the Euro slides due east from there.   

[NEG NAO]

12 minutes ago, DreamBig said:

Euro trended east, ots

Progressive flow caused by that LP vort near Minnesota moving east BUT is it right ? See if the EPS agrees with the OP

[NEG NAO]

EPS mean still delivers a few inches snow - ratio's probably higher than 10:1 - liquid QPF Map - don't have access to snow map

[EasternLI]

00z EPS spread is giving me the classic Hatteras to BM vibes.

[TriPol]

06z GFS is running. Out to 72.

[TriPol]

Out to 102 hours. A weak low off of the Carolinas.

[Roger Smith]

Bet it goes for Nantucket. That arctic high is about where the Blizzard of 1899 central recordbreaker high was (direct hit on NYC) 2-13-1899.

[TriPol]

Hmmm.... this looks different.

[MJO812]

Very close but still a miss. Southern States get a lot of snow.

Great spot

[TriPol]

Swing and a miss again. OTS.

[Neblizzard]

Just now, TriPol said:

Swing and a miss again. OTS.

That kicker in the northern stream is what prevents it from coming up the coast.  It’s been on the models the last 24 hours.   Not feeling good about this one. 

[MJO812]

Just now, Neblizzard said:

That kicker in the northern stream is what prevents it from coming up the coast.  It’s been on the models the last 24 hours.   Not feeling good about this one. 

Very close 

We go through this all the time with big storms. Timing is key. 

Good gfs run ( close enough)

[Roger Smith]

You're in the cone. But verbatim that would be like 36" of snow for s.e. VA. A close analogue to Mar 1-2, 1980. 

[MJO812]

Just now, Roger Smith said:

You're in the cone. But verbatim that would be like 36" of snow for s.e. VA. A close analogue to Mar 1-2, 1980. 

Yep south gets crushed. I mean the last storm also had them getting crushed. 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Think by Thursday it’s go/no go 

[TriPol]

Honestly? I'm ok with this. Let's move to Spring. If we're not going to get blasted with a 30+ inch storm, bring on the 60s!

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Think by Thursday it’s go/no go 

Defintely

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Honestly? I'm ok with this. Let's move to Spring. If we're not going to get blasted with a 30+ inch storm, bring on the 60s!

Its January. Spring can wait until May. 

[binbisso]

Aigfs is nice hit for LI. 4 straight runs of correcting  nw