February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[GreyHat]

55 minutes ago, Jake Wx said:

yea... were not torching 

I'm talking about the around 17. AIEuro, AIGFS and Euro, the 850mb are warm for that period too, the 700mb is cold but the warm air aloft will hurt.

[bncho]

23 minutes ago, Ji said:

he isnt using the proper date range smh. You have to use this:

AI

EPS

He's new here. Cut him some slack.

[stormy]

18z GFS   Way North

[stormtracker]

Where the fuck did that thing on the 12th come from on the GFS??

[Ji]

Where the fuck did that thing on the 12th come from on the GFS??

When do we start a thread for this threat? When do you start doing play-by-play and when’s the radio show?

[stormy]

5 minutes ago, stormy said:

18z GFS   Way North

 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

When do we start a thread for this threat? When do you start doing play-by-play and when’s the radio show?

PBP prob Sat.  Radio Show will be on Monday hosted by DT and jxdama

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Where the fuck did that thing on the 12th come from on the GFS??

I like what the gfs is smoking for next week. must be hanging with @dailylurker lol

[stormtracker]

Just now, Chris78 said:

I like what the gfs is smoking for next week. must be hanging with @dailylurker lol

@mitchnick posted that the UKMet had something around that time too.  Hmm

[Kevin Reilly]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

@mitchnick posted that the UKMet had something around that time too.  Hmm

I guess the hurricane hunters dropped in some new data points out in the Pacific.

[stormtracker]

No PDIII on the GFS..but hey, we got a thing or two to track.

[Climate175]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

No PDIII on the GFS..but hey, we got a thing or two to track.

For sure!

[CAPE]

23 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Where the fuck did that thing on the 12th come from on the GFS??

It has been suggestive of a wave or 2 between the 9th and 12th on recent runs. There is some decent vorticity being puked out from the upper low digging south along the west coast of Canada and riding overtop the de-amplifying ridge as it shifts eastward. Also some energy ejecting eastward from the SW. Wouldn't it be something if there was enough interaction as those pieces head east to make something happen before the window we are focused on lol.

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Where the fuck did that thing on the 12th come from on the GFS??

All the models have that lead wave but it’s been mostly weak and way north so we weren’t paying attention.  But given the seasonal trend it could shift south. And it will impact what happens after so we should pay attention. 

[mitchnick]

20 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

@mitchnick posted that the UKMet had something around that time too.  Hmm

I think that was Heisy. I was in MD driving all around the beltway down I83 instead of the west side of the Beltway thanks to an accident that closed the west side for 4hrs+. Effers!

[psuhoffman]

Who TF said the AIFS lost interest?  It’s was the strongest signal across all the 12z guidance. 

mean

more importantly the median is improving 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Who TF said the AIFS lost interest?  It’s was the strongest signal across all the 12z guidance. 

mean

more importantly the median is improving 

Don't you love that purple over our back yards? Lol

[Steve25]

Seems like the general trend across guidance today is the push back of the cold air next week quicker and stronger against that ridging.  

[BristowWx]

22 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

No PDIII on the GFS..but hey, we got a thing or two to track.

It ain’t over.  I didn’t hear no bell. 

[Terpeast]

10 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Seems like the general trend across guidance today is the push back of the cold air next week quicker and stronger against that ridging.  

Thats been the theme for 6+ months now

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Thats been the theme for 6+ months now

And it looks to get interesting with the Pacific starting to chip into the mix.

[Ji]

The Ai looks dry and stupid

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

The Ai looks dry and stupid

Yup....WB 18Z AI EURO

[Ji]

Tired of models swinging widely from run to run. Ai shouldn’t do this

[stormtracker]

57 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It ain’t over.  I didn’t hear no bell. 

What are yer waitin' fer!!

[stormtracker]

26 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Yup....WB 18Z AI EURO

Tracks

[Ji]

Ai ensembles still snowy

[psuhoffman]

AIFS EPS still very interested.  Save yourselves time and don’t look at op runs past 100 hours.  Not saying this is going to happen. There is uncertainty even among the various ensembles.  But worrying about the op runs at this range will just add confusion and noise. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Ji said:

Ai ensembles still snowy

You mthr FCKN ninja 

[Ji]