February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[Climate175]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS wacky HH run at fantasy range. 

It’s longer-range, but the fact models are throwing that type of snowfall around Feb 14-17th period signals it’s worth the watch.  As we all know, there are going to be numerous changes before we reach that date. 

[Chris78]

11 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS wacky HH run at fantasy range. 

Don't know about the weird coastal but the overrunning looks totally plausible and a way we score alot of our low end warnings around these parts. 4 to 8  with some sleet/zr ending as drizzle 

[GreyHat]

54 minutes ago, bncho said:

Comparison Map:

Nice maps, Delaware long range forecast has 40s with freezing rain and rain during the 12-16. Of course long time away.

[Scraff]

What I’m really hoping for moving forward is a good 6-10” of snow with 2” of sleet on top. That could be fun! 
 

[Heisy]

18z euro Ai has a cad event day 9-10

[Ji]

18z euro Ai has a cad event day 9-10

And then a suppressed event a day later which Is probably a good sign

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z AI EPS for five day period ending NEXT Sunday evening.

[Ji]

WB 18Z AI EPS for five day period ending NEXT Sunday evening.

Seems like we have a small thread here needle window

Congrats weather will

[Maestrobjwa]

A crazy tidbit about just how impressive this cold has been: Even down to dang CUBA, lol

 

 

[stormtracker]

Some Super Bowl fail on the GFS.   Looking for scraps now.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EURO AI held.

[Herb@MAWS]

Yeah, the cold got real south. Was in San Juan for a week. Even there yesterday the “chilly” high was 76 while, plus/minus 85 rest of my week. Weird Feb day for them. Off and on heavy tropical-like rain. 3” in general, 6” in spots. Interesting reading the NWS Office’s daily AFDs to see the unique factors that make up their forecast. They’ve been talking about the side effects from our cold airmass. Rained so bad I couldn’t fly island to mainland yesterday. 

[stormtracker]

19 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EURO AI held.

Nice, because the OP looks awful

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 1/31/2026 at 6:45 PM, psuhoffman said:

I’m not predicting doom and gloom. We have Chuck for that. I’m just saying don’t assume the rest of this winter is going to suck and don’t assume next year will be good. 

You misrepresent things quite often. I get excited about weather, and let some of that excitement come through on the board, hoping to be like a bright light sometimes. I have been very optimistic on this Winter, from the start. I think there was one period in December where the pattern was bad but I predicted the 11" snowstorm well in advance.. remember you were even asking me, if not la nina and el nino then when, and I responded that although nothing was currently showing on models, we will probably be at average snowfall after the next few weeks, this la nina was/is not a "dead pattern".. and here we are. Besides that, it's unbelievable and childish that everything is about someone's bias.. so many extraverts on this board communicate like that. like you can only think in blacks and whites. Nevermind that there is actually a weather forecast being made. I should not get a "doom and gloom" bias from being down on snow over the last several Winters. We have been below average and like 90% of the storms I get right! If model shows snow 5-7 days out, I say too warm or rain, and it rains, that's not a bias! 

I agree that next Winter is not a definite good year, this Winters ridge in the Rockies and West coast is concerning to me. When we get a warm pattern some future Winter, it could torch. That's not a "doom and gloom bias", Im discussing the science of the situation. Patterns in the west lead us by time, sometimes years. History also says that this Winters pattern of cold NE/warm SW is likely to continue through March, and even Apr-Aug to some extent. I just made a post in ENSO thread about it. We may still have some opportunities this Winter. 

[Ji]

The data got colder for our storm window00z


12z

[mitchnick]

Next weekend is the classic end of pattern threat. Coincidentally, PD1 was and the pattern not only ended, but winter itself after it. Gimme another PD1, and I  can deal with winter ending knowing we have a Niño next year.

[CAPE]

 

 

[snowfan]

6Z GFS OP is NSFW even if it is wrong.

 

[Fozz]

The GFS brings us PDIII

[frd]

33 minutes ago, CAPE said:

 

 

Pretty and Cold enough! Trending better. 

[anotherman]

Trending better. 

Congrats Tuscaloosa?

[frd]

4 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Congrats Tuscaloosa?

Absolutely not. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS zoom....

[aldie 22]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS zoom....

Just one time please 

[Weather Will]

6Z EURO AI is a dud.

[Climate175]

52 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS zoom....

It would be great if we can end Winter with a bang before Spring starts to approach. 

[Weather Will]

It is fun to look at the globals in fantasy range but reality is we need to just look at trends in the ensembles.  Biggest take is that next weekend still has potential.

[Climate175]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

It is fun to look at the globals in fantasy range but reality is we need to just look at trends in the ensembles.  Biggest take is that next weekend still has potential.

Agreed that’s the only takeaway. It’s only showing GFS showing this right now. At least we know the pattern supports some storm at that time. It shall be interesting to monitor.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I’m in for the PD threat and if that window doesn’t pan out I say let’s pop a massive SE ridge and hit 65 everyday in March.  

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, Climate175 said:

Agreed that’s the only takeaway. It’s only showing GFS showing this right now. At least we know the pattern supports some storm at that time. It shall be interesting to monitor.

No, it will be frustrating as hell, filled with whining, and we'll be at each other's throats by the time it's over. That's typical, not interesting.