Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[Snowlover11]

6z NAM pretty toasty after a thump. Shoots the mixing all the way to say Poughkeepsie, RT 17 and points east.

[Snowlover11]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

6z NAM pretty toasty after a thump. Shoots the mixing all the way to say Poughkeepsie, RT 17 and points east.

 

[Snowlover11]

ICON says who’s panicking!

[Noteaster101]

Oh my goodness, this is pretty sick. Lol. I find this awesome, check this clip out…

 

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1MsezJwY1F/?mibextid=wwXIfr

[wishcast_hater]

URGENT WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE – WINTER DISAPPOINTMENT DESK

ISSUED: Immediately, because hope is fragile

SUMMARY:
A significant winter storm is expected to impact the region. Forecast confidence remains high for heavy snow potential, followed by a dangerous transition to sleet, freezing rain, or the ultimate betrayal: plain rain.

⸻

HAZARDS:
• Initial excitement from model runs showing 18–30 inches
• Rapid emotional destabilization as warm nose appears
• Keyboard smashing, doom posting, and refresh-induced psychosis
• Statements such as “this storm is dead” at T-72 hours

⸻

SUICIDE WATCH (METEOROLOGICAL): IN EFFECT
A Snowlover Emotional Crisis Watch is in effect for the duration of the event.

Residents are advised:
• Do not do anything rash based on one model run
• Step away from social media during the sleet phase
• Remember: one band can still save the storm
• Refrain from declaring winter “over” before March

⸻

TIMING:
• Snow: Hope Phase
• Sleet/Freezing Rain: Anger Phase
• Rain: Acceptance (or complete meltdown)
• Post-storm: “Next system looks promising” Phase

⸻

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS:
• Touch grass (or snow, if available)
• Hydrate
• Do not fight family members over 850 mb temps
• Seek professional help if you start trusting the GFS blindly

⸻

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
Low on precipitation type
High on emotional damage


.

[Tatamy]

36 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

ICON says who’s panicking!

The RDPS is also holding serve.  The RRFA-S is actually improved over its 0z run.  The only bad boy from 06z so far has been the NAM.

 

 

 

 

[Snowlover11]

We are still in the flip flop stage. Every model outside the NAM has gotten a bit colder at 6z.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Snowlover11 said:

 

When the NAM shows a midlevel warm nose, definitely believe it. That’s literally the ONLY thing it’s good for and it has been schooling all the global models and the other meso models for years with it. It is a huge mistake to write off the NAM when it shows a warm nose. People have been burned time and time again when they ignore it

[SnoSki14]

8 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

We are still in the flip flop stage. Every model outside the NAM has gotten a bit colder at 6z.

Yeah GFS held or even ticked a bit colder. Rgem was colder, Icon too. Nam still drops 6-8" before any flip. 

[Tatamy]

06z GFS

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, snowman19 said:

When the NAM shows a midlevel warm nose, definitely believe it. That’s literally the ONLY thing it’s good for and it has been schooling all the global models and the other meso models for years with it. It is a huge mistake to write off the NAM when it shows a warm nose. People have been burned time and time again 

Once it gets under 48hrs we'll pay attention. Even so it still has the 6-8" front end dump before any changeover. That's pretty much the floor with this. 

[Tatamy]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

When the NAM shows a midlevel warm nose, definitely believe it. That’s literally the ONLY thing it’s good for and it has been schooling all the global models and the other meso models for years with it. It is a huge mistake to write off the NAM when it shows a warm nose. People have been burned time and time again 

Snowman - Totally agree.  I am following the RDPS closely as that is another good Meso.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Once it gets under 48hrs we'll pay attention. Even so it still has the 6-8" front end dump before any changeover. That's pretty much the floor with this. 

Yep just expect 6-12 for the metro. Still a good storm . Once again the mid levels are ruining it for us.

It all depends how fast the sleet comes in. The later the better. Who knows , maybe it will the models will be wrong and never turns to sleet. It has happen before. 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

When the NAM shows a midlevel warm nose, definitely believe it. That’s literally the ONLY thing it’s good for and it has been schooling all the global models and the other meso models for years with it. It is a huge mistake to write off the NAM when it shows a warm nose. People have been burned time and time again when they ignore it

Nam jumps around alot. Thats why people ignore it. I do agree with you though.

[MANDA]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

When the NAM shows a midlevel warm nose, definitely believe it. That’s literally the ONLY thing it’s good for and it has been schooling all the global models and the other meso models for years with it. It is a huge mistake to write off the NAM when it shows a warm nose. People have been burned time and time again when they ignore it

I gotta agree.  Watching the NAM closely and not ignoring it.  To blindly write it off as wrong is setting yourself up for disappointment.  At least keep it in the back of your mind.  If it is doing this on the 12Z runs tomorrow believe it.  Still early enough for pause with it as of now.

[MANDA]

Mt. Holly cut back totals over SNJ.  
 

[MJO812]

These amounts seem more likely than the map they had earlier. 

[North and West]

Yikes. Toaster bath to start off 0z

Live, Laugh, Toaster Bath.


.

[snowman19]

31 minutes ago, MANDA said:

I gotta agree.  Watching the NAM closely and not ignoring it.  To blindly write it off as wrong is setting yourself up for disappointment.  At least keep it in the back of your mind.  If it is doing this on the 12Z runs tomorrow believe it.  Still early enough for pause with it as of now.

There is still a big front end thump of snow before the mix to sleet, that’s locked in. Getting back to the NAM, Binghamton NWS is expecting a possible turn to sleet all the way up into Northeast PA in their new disco this morning: 

“Models continue their jog northward for our winter storm Sunday into Monday. No major changes at this time, with still a significant snowstorm expected for the area with a widespread 10"+ with locally higher amounts possibly over 20". The finer scale models will be coming into play over the next 24 hours. It should be noted that the NAM and CMCreg are showing strong SE flow at H850. The NAM is notorious for doing very well forecasting the warm layers aloft and this will be something to monitor as we get closer. This warm layer aloft may not cause mixing per say, but it may significantly change snow ratios Sunday night across NEPA and possibly into the Southern Tier and this would produce lower snow totals in these areas if it comes to fruition. Also, mixing is not noted in our forecast at this time, however, a future change could be warranted if this trend north continues any further and this would also hinder snowfall totals across the southern forecast area some.”

[sussexcountyobs]

Has anyone done, or know how to do soundings for northwest NJ? I've seen a couple for NYC and Philly, but nothing for NW Jersey.

[jm1220]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

These amounts seem more likely than the map they had earlier. 

Yep, much as I want 15” I just don’t see it around the city/coast. I-84 corridor is another story. I’m quite confident we’ll be mixing but hopefully most of it’s over by then. My thought is still 8-12” for NYC/LI/I-78 to 80. And honestly I consider 10” with some sleet pounded in to be a good win. 

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, TriPol said:

I guess with this storm dumping sleet and freezing rain all over the country, it's just decided that it's going to do the same thing here. Fun times.

It’s doing what just about any SWFE does. If you want all snow from these you want to be on the I-90 corridor. This is a bigger SWFE than usual with better front end snow but it’s behaving typical for them. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Mount Holly 5:47am update:

The areal extent of potential mixing remains in question, and
tied in large part to the exact track of the coastal low. With
that said, guidance continues to support the idea of a low track
close enough to the coast to lead to at least some mixing for a
large portion of the area, potentially as far north as the I-78
corridor. North of I- 78, the anticipation is still for an all
snow event. Sunday night through early Monday morning, as the
low begins to pull away and cold air from the northwest begins
to filter back in, precipitation should change back to all snow
for most of the area with additional accumulations likely.
Breezy northeast winds on Sunday and northwest winds on Monday
could lead to some minor blowing and drifting of snow,
especially where mixing does not occur and where snow-to- liquid
ratios are highest.

All-told, snow amounts around 12-15" appear likely across all
of eastern PA and northern NJ. Higher amounts (potentially
exceeding 18") are expected across the Poconos and into adjacent
areas of far northwestern NJ. For the lower Delmarva into much
of southeastern NJ, 6-12" of snow are expected, with mixing
limiting totals more in those areas. Right now, ice accretion of
generally 0.10-0.25" is expected along the I-95 corridor.
Amounts exceeding 0.25" are possible for portions of the Eastern
Shore of Maryland. Further refinements will likely be needed in
future updates as the event draws closer.

A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for the entire area
Saturday night through early Monday afternoon.

[greenmtnwx]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

When the NAM shows a midlevel warm nose, definitely believe it. That’s literally the ONLY thing it’s good for and it has been schooling all the global models and the other meso models for years with it. It is a huge mistake to write off the NAM when it shows a warm nose. People have been burned time and time again when they ignore it

This

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

When the NAM shows a midlevel warm nose, definitely believe it. That’s literally the ONLY thing it’s good for and it has been schooling all the global models and the other meso models for years with it. It is a huge mistake to write off the NAM when it shows a warm nose. People have been burned time and time again when they ignore it

NAM is usually closer to right than the other models but it can be too aggressive with it. In Dec it had me mixing but I never really did. 

[donsutherland1]

My thoughts haven't changed too much overnight.

Cooler air arrived a few hours more slowly than had been modeled overnight. But overall, things remain on track for a frigid start to the weekend and a large storm on Sunday into early Monday.
The overnight guidance reached consensus that the snow that arrives on Sunday will eventually change to sleet in much of the New York City area and its nearby suburbs. A few of the models cut back on QPF. Almost 95% of EPS and GEFS members show 6" or more snow in New York City. 

In the bigger picture, the New York City area remains in line for its biggest snowstorm in nearly four or five years. It remains likely that New York City and nearby areas will see a storm total of 6"-12" of snow and sleet. Areas to the south and east of New York City could see 4"-8" amounts. Pockets of 12"-18" amounts are possible well north and west of New York City, most likely in parts of northeastern Pennsylvania, Orange County, Dutchess County, and Sussex County. 

There remains some uncertainty concerning mid-level and surface storm evolution and tracks, and perhaps somewhat greater uncertainty regarding a potential primary-secondary storm handoff. Model skill will improve markedly today. Whether or not changes will need to be made remain to be seen.

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Agreed.  In my oversimplified view I think of getting a major snowstorm at the coast here as having similar odds as winning $50 on a $1 scratch off lottery ticket, which is something like 1 in 360.  That would work out to one big storm every four winters if distributed perfectly.   Maybe at the moment the odds are now 1 in 500, or one in every 5-6 winters, again *if distributed perfectly.*

Either way, you need a heck of a lot of luck to have a winner.  And given the low odds to begin with, the change in the total number of big storms that one sees in a lifetime might be so minor as to be unnoticeable.   Then when you consider the temperatures in the 1980s and the number of big snows and compare to the temperatures and big snows in the 2010s, it becomes apparent that its not just about cold.  Someone on this board posts a nice image of a triangle with the three ingredients for snow:  cold, moisture, and luck.  That's very true.

I bleieve @Dark Star posts the triangle. His visualization really summarizes things quite well.

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

540 line is too rough to use as a definitive ptype demarc especially when it is still close.  546, which is depicted to our south could still be snow.  The devil is in the details.  The 850s do look very warm at 96 and beyond.

The 540 line is only a rough approximation when the AI doesn’t show the P-Types chart. Right now I would probably use the NAM as the floor for NYC and Long Island with at least 6-8” before any mixing later Sunday. The RGEM and other guidance at 10-12” would probably be the ceiling. I used the kuchera to account for the higher ratios at the start gradually falling back closer to 10:1 later Sunday.

 

[Stormlover74]

Upton says I'm all snow through 10 pm Sunday 

[CentralNJSnowman]

Would be cool if Mt Holly’s maps didn’t show way more snow than their discussion implies