Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[NEG NAO]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

agreed plus less QPF will mean colder temps and ratio's higher to compensate for less QPF

 

2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

January 96 an pd2 did

1996 looks similar to this event on the Euro regarding the mixing making it up into southern half of NJ 

[Jt17]

EPS looks pretty ideal for NYC


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[RU848789]

Not sure if folks will find this useful, but I post this model summary info in a few other places (FB/non-weather forums/my email list) and folks seem to like it, as it provides a decent summary without posting 14 maps, so thought I'd see what people thought. These are model summaries from 0Z for CNJ and the immediate PA counties bordering CNJ, i.e., areas between 276/195 and 78, as well as for NENJ (eastern Union/Essex and Hudson) along 95 and NYC. I also include the estimated snowfall amounts at both 10:1 and 15:1, which is my guess for ratios we'll see (I know some think we'll see higher, but I'm not ready to go there yet), plus I included the same info from the 12Z runs of these models. GFSAI isn't included as I don't have direct snow info for that model (but we know it's no longer an outlier based on QPF). As an aside, I've never seen model consensus like this 4.5 days out (or maybe even 4.5 hours out, lol. Comments welcome. 

• The Euro shows 10-12" at a 10:1 ratio and 15-18" at a 15:1 ratio and the 12Z run was 7-10".
• The Euro AIFS shows 8-11" at a 10:1 ratio and 12-16" at a 15:1 ratio and the 12Z run was 5-8."
• The GFS shows 8-11" at a 10:1 ratio and 12-16" at a 15:1 ratio and the 12Z run showed nada for CNJ.
• The CMC shows 10-13" at a 10:1 ratio and 15-20" at a 15:1 ratio and the 12Z run was 7-11".
• The UK shows 10-13" at a 10:1 ratio and 15-20" at a 15:1 ratio and the 12Z run was 9-12".
• The ICON shows 8-10" at a 10:1 ratio and 12-15" at a 15:1 ratio and the 12Z run was also 8-10".
• The NBM (model blend) shows 11-14" at a 10:1 ratio and 16-21" at 15:1 ratios and the 12Z run was 8-12".

 

[David-LI]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Not sure if folks will find this useful, but I post this model summary info in a few other places (FB/non-weather forums/my email list) and folks seem to like it, as it provides a decent summary without posting 14 maps, so thought I'd see what people thought. These are model summaries from 0Z for CNJ and the immediate PA counties bordering CNJ, i.e., areas between 276/195 and 78, as well as for NENJ (eastern Union/Essex and Hudson) along 95 and NYC. I also include the estimated snowfall amounts at both 10:1 and 15:1, which is my guess for ratios we'll see (I know some think we'll see higher, but I'm not ready to go there yet), plus I included the same info from the 12Z runs of these models. GFSAI isn't included as I don't have direct snow info for that model (but we know it's no longer an outlier based on QPF). Comments welcome. 

• The Euro shows 10-12" at a 10:1 ratio and 15-18" at a 15:1 ratio and the 12Z run was 7-10".
• The Euro AIFS shows 8-11" at a 10:1 ratio and 12-16" at a 15:1 ratio and the 12Z run was 5-8."
• The GFS shows 8-11" at a 10:1 ratio and 12-16" at a 15:1 ratio and the 12Z run showed nada for CNJ.
• The CMC shows 10-13" at a 10:1 ratio and 15-20" at a 15:1 ratio and the 12Z run was 7-11".
• The UK shows 10-13" at a 10:1 ratio and 15-20" at a 15:1 ratio and the 12Z run was 9-12".
• The ICON shows 8-10" at a 10:1 ratio and 12-15" at a 15:1 ratio and the 12Z run was also 8-10".
• The NBM (model blend) shows 11-14" at a 10:1 ratio and 16-21" at 15:1 ratios and the 12Z run was 8-12".

 

yeah not buying it until we get NAM'D!

[WeatherGeek2025]

we hope for the CMC solution at this point I don't think any of us want mixing!

[Snowlover11]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
121 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-220630-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Western Passaic-
Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-
Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
121 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Confidence is increasing in the potential for a significant winter
storm to impact the area Sunday into Monday with accumulating
snowfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

$$

[SI Mailman]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

we hope for the CMC solution at this point I don't think any of us want mixing!

There's an old saying on these forums, the best snows are where you can smell the taint.  

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

41 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

There's an old saying on these forums, the best snows are where you can smell the taint.  

Not when the snow starts with tempertures in the teens it isn't. You don't want to flirt with any mid level warming in a setup like this. 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, allgame830 said:

Could be just a minor over correction to the north. 

If there’s less confluence and a full phase we could absolutely see an outcome like this where the primary goes well west of us. In that situation the usual caveats about SWFE apply: I-90 corridor is favored for all snow, here hopefully we get the heavy wall of snow before any warm air aloft comes in. But if you have closed mid level lows going west of you it will eventually happen. 

[snowman19]

I would wait until Thursday when the players are actually on the field and all the models get the new data. I’m sure weather balloon launches will increase and recon flights will definitely be in the air on Thursday. I call BS on the EURO. Suppression is a very real threat 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

we hope for the CMC solution at this point I don't think any of us want mixing!

I’ll be perfectly fine with mixing for an hour at the end after a huge front ender thump. Other than the Super Bowl 2021 event all of our major events that winter mixed at some point. The 2/1/21 storm dumped 15-16” IMBY but a small part of it was sleet/rain. 

[dseagull]

Will be very interesting to see if a trend evolves through 06z and 12z today.  

[TriPol]

BIG HIT on the GFS!

[Jersey_Snowhole]

2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

BIG HIT on the GFS!

Yep good phase

[dseagull]

Going to be a classic GFS vs Euro battle royale... 

[BoulderWX]

Great runs overall. Trying to keep expectations low since we’ve already seen some big changes over the last couple of days. Some really nice signs last night but proceeding with caution 

[SnoSki14]

5 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Going to be a classic GFS vs Euro battle royale... 

The snow amounts would be similar though. Euro is essentially a huge thump to dry slot. 

[dseagull]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

The snow amounts would be similar though. Euro is essentially a huge thump to dry slot. 

Very True.  I should have specified for my location coastal OC NJ.  Euro, if depicted correctly would even mix for awhile into the city, and absolutely LI. 

[TriPol]

On the GFS, this starts 18z on Sunday and leaves by 12z Tuesday.

[TriPol]

2 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Very True.  I should have specified for my location coastal OC NJ.  Euro, if depicted correctly would even mix for awhile into the city, and absolutely LI. 

Not even thinking of mixing on the GFS.

[WeatherGeek2025]

icon is a great run best run so far for the city but south jersey mixes and even changes to rain around AC.

ai gfs is a big hit

[dseagull]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

Not even thinking of mixing on the GFS.

Going to be a fun couple days to see which models handle the phase best.  Regardless of the outcome, Im just stoked to have a setup like this to track again.  Its been a minute....

[bluewave]

Good to see so many models showing our first 10”+ potential since 2021 and 2022. Some of the recent model runs almost look like a super SWFE. Solid high pressure anchored over New England and a cranking STJ with plenty of moisture. 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

6z euro looking nice at hr 105

lets see how it progresses 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

6z euro looking nice at hr 105

lets see how it progresses 

Very nice run even though the warmer air keeps coming north at the end.

[Jersey_Snowhole]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Very nice run even though the warmer air keeps coming north at the end.

Agreed, that warmer air can’t be ignored 

[snowman19]

The WPC just issued a new disco on the “north trends”, here’s what they have to say, worth the read. I think there may be some big shifts tomorrow once everything is sampled in the new model runs and more balloon launches start and recon flights begin.

WPC:

https://x.com/_jwall/status/2013924395425624230?s=46&t=NChJQK9_PUjA1K7D2SMojw

[North and West]

I am half expecting next 24-48 hour model trends to be towards greater coastal development, lower central pressures for the coastal low and a consequent beefing up of QPF over NJ, PA, NY and s NE. There is a fairly robust energy peak around Jan 26-27 so the slower this evolution develops, the better the results. 
Current record snowfalls on 25th and 26th of January are 10.0" from 1905 (an 11.0" 2d event) and 12.3" from 2011 (a 20" 3d event). There could be a run on one or even both of those depending on timing. 
It is very difficult to break record low mins in this urban heat island situation but easier to match record low max, those are in the 12-14 F range around Sunday-Monday. I think Saturday may be very cold all day but it has less chance because the date record for Jan 24th (6F 1882) is also the monthly lowest value for low max. Oddly, December and February both have lower values (2F 1917 and 4F 1918). There has not been a sub-10F max at NYC since Jan 21, 1985 set a record of 9F. There was a 10F reading in Jan 1994, and 13F in Jan 2018. 

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