Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[Stormlover74]

Euro looks colder to me. More like 12z

[SACRUS]

 

 

 

[eduggs]

Euro looks wet and warm. No major reversal to the north/amped trend but still a major event.

[KeithB]

7 minutes ago, eduggs said:

It's more amped. Powerfreak gets crushed up at Stowe. That's usually not great for our area.

It's funny....I was supposed to be up at Stowe this weekend, and due to some work stuff, I had to move it out 2 more weeks. Last 48 hours I have been THRILLED thinking thank god I am not up there and am here!....would be some kick in the ass if we get sleeted and they wind up getting the 18+. Vermont snow totals, all the way up to and past Stowe, are rising on ever model run  

[Snowlover11]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro looks colder to me. More like 12z

 

Just now, eduggs said:

Euro looks wet and warm. No major reversal to the north/amped trend but still a major event.

Lmao

[Franklin0529]

The euro AI is a foot Plus region wide

[psv88]

Euro is Weast

[hooralph]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

 

Lmao

This is why PBP are so awful.

[SACRUS]

Snow starts to arrive betwen 3am - 8am Sunday

 

[Franklin0529]

Euro doesn't look warm to me. Looks a little colder. Also a foot +

[SACRUS]

[Franklin0529]

12" is nothing to be upset about. I know I'll be happy. Till Tommorow folks. As my late grandpa use to say. "It's been swell, but the swelling has gone down"

[Nibor]

Looks like an earlier transfer/Primary doesn't go as far north. Still likely mixing issues for around the city south and east.

[psv88]

9 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Euro looks wet and warm. No major reversal to the north/amped trend but still a major event.

This post is factually incorrect. 

[SACRUS]

[eduggs]

The Euro is also faster to move out than the UK, ICON, and GFS. 12 hours of snow plus or minus and then dryslot/light stuff. Most of the steady precip. is done by 0z Sunday on the Euro.

[SACRUS]

[SACRUS]

25-40% sleet

 

[SACRUS]

Euro total QPF storm

 

[Snowlover11]

Once again 10-15”

[eduggs]

It would be interesting if DCA outdid PHL, NYC, and BOS in terms of snowfall due to a stronger and longer initial overrunning. I doubt it mostly because of likely better ratios up north and possibly some tack-on snow at the end. But I guess it's possible.

[SACRUS]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/22 00Z QPF  - NYC

 

ICON: 1.5 
GFS: 1.2 
GFS AI AIGFS: 0.9
GGEM: 1.2 (50% sleet)
UKMET: 1.2  (90% snow)
GEFS *mean: 1.1
Euro AI AIFS: 1.1
Euro: 0.9

Updated

[SACRUS]

drier than the others around here

 

[Prue11]

I’m assuming we’ll see winter storm watches posted by Friday evening?

[Prue11]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

drier than the others around here

 

I’m not expecting much to happen Monday think most of it is over by Sunday night 

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

drier than the others around here

 

That's a sad look for Sunday night. Mid-levels too far NW resulting in a persistent primary low and no lift for our area.

[eduggs]

14 minutes ago, psv88 said:

This post is factually incorrect. 

"Wet" as in intense rates, which is true considering it falls in about 12 hours. Temps between 700mb and 850mb surge during the day on Sunday and no longer support snow by Sunday evening for much of the forum. It's a high impact event but shorter in duration than some other models.

[psv88]

Just now, eduggs said:

"Wet" as in intense rates, which is true considering it falls in about 12 hours. Temps between 700mb and 850mb surge during the day on Sunday and no longer support snow by Sunday evening for much of the forum. It's a high impact event but shorter in duration than some other models.

That’s not what you meant haha. Warm and wet implies rain. Stop it

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

That’s not what you meant haha. Warm and wet implies rain. Stop it

Everybody knows wet means high QPF. Especially in this context. Not literally rain. 

[Snowlover11]

18 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

I’m assuming we’ll see winter storm watches posted by Friday evening?

Correct usually 48 hrs in advance.