David-LI Posted Thursday at 03:28 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:28 AM Has this always been a Miller A storm? That's what it looks like on the ICON. Someone correct me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted Thursday at 03:29 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:29 AM Definitely a positive with this storm that there seems to be a floor of at least a decent event with the initial overrunning surge and potential for something really great if we can get this coastal to crank in time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Thursday at 03:31 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:31 AM ICON long duration 1/22 00Z Total QPF - storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted Thursday at 03:31 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:31 AM 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Whats better for this event ? 10:1 or Kuchera ? I would think something in between but we don't really have that. I would use kuchera with caution. But I would also take your qpf and go with something like a 13-15:1 as a cautionary start 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted Thursday at 03:31 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:31 AM 3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: Icon! I already question both NYC getting 18 inches and Buffalo 2 feet from a synoptic snowstorm unless Buffalo is lake effect enhanced? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted Thursday at 03:32 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:32 AM Am I wrong in thinking that if the storm closes off at 500mb maybe 300 miles south of this we're in a good place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted Thursday at 03:32 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:32 AM 13 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Icon a lot better at 0z than it was at 18z! . The 0z ICON is a dream run for pretty much our entire forum - CNJ north. There is a precip. lull Sunday night but it redevelops on Monday and stays mostly snow. I said after 18z that a slight shift south would produce an excellent long duration event and that's exactly what the model shows. Very widespread heavy snow event for most of the northeast, which is uncommon! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Thursday at 03:32 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:32 AM You can almost automatically de-amplify the RGEM a bit at 60-84, thats a rule that seems to work 9 of 10, especially if its more amped than other models in the same period but I only use the RGEM past 48, never the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted Thursday at 03:34 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:34 AM Just now, SnowGoose69 said: You can almost automatically de-amplify the RGEM a bit at 60-84, thats a rule that seems to work 9 of 10, especially if its more amped than other models in the same period but I only use the RGEM past 48, never the NAM RGEM not surprisingly seems in line with the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Thursday at 03:34 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:34 AM 2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: I already question both NYC getting 18 inches and Buffalo 2 feet from a synoptic snowstorm unless Buffalo is lake effect enhanced? Buf looks Lakes enhanced for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted Thursday at 03:35 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:35 AM Winds? Are we looking at crazy winds? Drifting will be a biotch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted Thursday at 03:35 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:35 AM The 0z ICON is a dream run for pretty much our entire forum - CNJ north. There is a precip. lull Sunday night but it redevelops on Monday and stays mostly snow. I said after 18z that a slight shift south would produce an excellent long duration event and that's exactly what the model shows. Very widespread heavy snow event for most of the northeast, which is uncommon!I wrote this at 108 when it looked like it was fizzling out, but the redevelopment really made it a weenie run indeed!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted Thursday at 03:35 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:35 AM FWIW, the 0z NAM matches up pretty well with the 12z CMC at 500mb. But it also ticked a little less amped the past 2 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted Thursday at 03:38 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:38 AM So do you guys think the data from recon was thrown into that ICON run because that was a great run?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted Thursday at 03:38 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:38 AM 5 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Winds? Are we looking at crazy winds? Drifting will be a biotch Maybe 20-30 mph. Even though the surface low isn’t too deep there’s still a 20-30mb pressure gradient thanks to that strong high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted Thursday at 03:39 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:39 AM GFS rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted Thursday at 03:39 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:39 AM The 0z RGEM is also a tick less amped than 18z but still pretty amped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted Thursday at 03:40 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:40 AM 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: So do you guys think the data from recon was thrown into that ICON run because that was a great run?? It's definitely in the GFS an euro. Gfs rolling now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted Thursday at 03:41 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:41 AM 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: So do you guys think the data from recon was thrown into that ICON run because that was a great run?? I am not sure but the Icon is not a reliable model so I'd want to see more reliable models look like that before getting too excited for the bigger totals scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Thursday at 03:42 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:42 AM 1/22 00Z QPF - NYC ICON: 1.5 GFS: 1.2 GFS AI AIGFS: 0.9 GGEM: 1.2 (50% sleet) UKMET: 1.2 (90% snow) GEFS *mean: 1.1 Euro AI AIFS: 1.1 Euro: 0.9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Thursday at 03:42 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:42 AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaz Posted Thursday at 03:46 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:46 AM Generally speaking, one major player increasing the snow to liquid ratio is to see high relative humidity (>80%) in the dendritic growth zone, which is the height range where temperatures are typically between -10C to -20C, combined with good lift (omega). However, the ratio can influenced by other factors (e.g. high surface wind can readily break apart the dendrites creating less more dense(more compact) surface accumulation). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted Thursday at 03:49 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:49 AM Are we in phase 8 of the MJO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Thursday at 03:54 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:54 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted Thursday at 03:54 AM Author Share Posted Thursday at 03:54 AM 5 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said: Are we in phase 8 of the MJO? We are in phase 6 https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_index?base_time=202601210000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prue11 Posted Thursday at 03:55 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:55 AM 52 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said: I did notice Mount Holly NWS seems to have all snow down to ACY so they don't seem to be buying into the more amped solutions. I’m not buying it either for my area but I think the mix line could make it up to southern Monmouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted Thursday at 03:55 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:55 AM 5 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said: Are we in phase 8 of the MJO? No. We are in Phase 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted Thursday at 03:55 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:55 AM 25 dropsondes reportedly dropped into the low off of Southern California for ingestion into the 0Z models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Thursday at 03:56 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:56 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted Thursday at 03:58 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:58 AM Snow arriving between 8 and 12 PM on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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