January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

lol the end of the gfs was gonna be something

Yea. A heartbreaking snow to ice to rain cutter

[Ji]

Getting closer

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

hey chuck, how do you like that 585 dm over alaska?

Hopefully it stays north. Models have trended in the last few days to more of a N. Pacific ridge, the EPS is well south of the GFS/GEFS, and has higher verification scores I think. -PNA keeps the jet stream a little too far north, although if the ridge extends well into Alaska we can get some colder weather. I would love that though, -EPO's are the coldest pattern and I always wanted to experience a tropical-cutoff block! For big snowstorms though, a gulf of alaska/south of aleutian 500mb low pressure is the greatest correlation, along with a 50/50 low. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This doesn't look bad

The jet stream is dry though. 

Still watching the late January period, because CPC has below average in the Northeast for January, and we are likely to be pretty solidly above by the 16th. 3-4 week on the CPC is also colder than average. It's looking like we won't have a -NAO, unless models are biased from the last 14 years of having Winter +NAO, which has happened already in Dec and early Jan. So we'll have to lift that n. pacific ridge into the EPO/WPO domain for the colder stuff to verify most likely. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I don't know, this looks kind of ugly to me in the mean. I think the only way those surface temps will verify is if we are right after a cold front, unless a few individual members are weighting the mean. 

Maybe those few outlier members will win and the Pacific ridge will trend more Polar? GEFS has more -WPO at 384hr so that's a little better. 

The ENSO subsurface is starting to warm with a kelvin wave, and I did research showing that, that actually correlates to more +PNA when the subsurface at -200m hits 180W. That should happen in the next few weeks.. Just using that favors less -pna and more +pna going into the extended, but that's just one method. 

[dailylurker]

It looks like the gfs brings winter back towards the end of the run. Hopefully we can get some moisture. It's bone dry for January. 

[BristowWx]

19 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

It looks like the gfs brings winter back towards the end of the run. Hopefully we can get some moisture. It's bone dry for January. 

I gotta admit I was really getting spoiled in early Dec with snow and rumors of snow.  it was a glorious late fall.  Now that winter is really here it feels normal again...comfortable like a old shoe

[stormy]

7 hours ago, winter_warlock said:

And these are the days of our lives..

 

This is MacDonald Carey.........................................................................................

[konksw]

Hoping for the torch if it doesn’t snow, nothing worse than 40 and dry. 

[Ji]

overnight models were a disaster again i see

[Eskimo Joe]

32 minutes ago, konksw said:

Hoping for the torch if it doesn’t snow, nothing worse than 40 and dry. 

Please no

[Terpeast]

Both gfs and euro take a few shots at us after Jan 11.  Ensembles look fine. 

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Both gfs and euro take a few shots at us after Jan 11.  Ensembles look fine. 

the Euro ensemble snow mean map is .06 for ashburn.  That would make 01-02 proud

[TSSN+]

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

the Euro ensemble snow mean map is .06 for ashburn.  That would make 01-02 proud

Snow ensemble maps mean nothing at range. Seen them show tons of snow and we have got none. It matter when they start to show something for an aural storm inside 5 days. 

[Krs4Lfe]

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

the Euro ensemble snow mean map is .06 for ashburn.  That would make 01-02 proud

I think the dryness is a symptom of a very disjointed northern and southern streams. Back in the 2010s, colder anomalies over the east meant more storminess because the northern stream would dip and the southern stream would amplify and cause big storms. This decade, it just means cold and dry because the Northern stream keeps outpacing the southern stream. Largely due to a fast pacific flow exacerbated by yearly record marine heatwaves in northwest pacific 

[brooklynwx99]

if i took a shot every time i heard "fast flow" i would have been dead back in 2023

[JenkinsJinkies]

Once again the brunt of the warmup is to our west.

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Snow ensemble maps mean nothing at range. Seen them show tons of snow and we have got none. It matter when they start to show something for an aural storm inside 5 days. 

I’m actually with Ji and Chuck on this one. The means don’t mean everything but they can give clues and if you look under the hood the reason the temps aren’t warmer is due to dry cold shots behind cutters and frontal passages. When it’s wet it’s warm across almost every single member. I’ve been away and haven’t really dig into anything for 2 weeks but when I did last night for the first time my initial reaction was yuck. And disappointed, I expected a better January. 
 

The good news is it’s not a no hope pattern. Yea as is it’s not good with waves to our north then cold dry periods. The dreaded warm wet cold dry. But some minor shifts and it becomes possible to get snow. So I’m not saying January is cooked. But the actual snow prospects aren’t as good as the pretty h5 and surface temp means look if you dig deeper. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m actually with Ji and Chuck on this one. The means don’t mean everything but they can give clues and if you look under the hood the reason the temps aren’t warmer is due to dry cold shots behind cutters and frontal passages. When it’s wet it’s warm across almost every single member. I’ve been away and haven’t really dig into anything for 2 weeks but when I did last night for the first time my initial reaction was yuck. And disappointed, I expected a better January. 
 

The good news is it’s not a no hope pattern. Yea as is it’s not good with waves to our north then cold dry periods. The dreaded warm wet cold dry. But some minor shifts and it becomes possible to get snow. So I’m not saying January is cooked. But the actual snow prospects aren’t as good as the pretty h5 and surface temp means look if you dig deeper. 

The focus has been on the 2nd half of the month for a couple weeks now.

[87storms]

18 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I think the dryness is a symptom of a very disjointed northern and southern streams. Back in the 2010s, colder anomalies over the east meant more storminess because the northern stream would dip and the southern stream would amplify and cause big storms. This decade, it just means cold and dry because the Northern stream keeps outpacing the southern stream. Largely due to a fast pacific flow exacerbated by yearly record marine heatwaves in northwest pacific 

It’s pretty evident just looking at the h5 maps. It’s been difficult to get a shortwave under our latitude. Probably need both the Pacific and Atlantic to cooperate better. I’m not convinced it’s one or the other, though would obviously make sense that the Pacific is more important for the overall jet stream. If there’s blocking, but a steroidal NS, then I guess we end up with an array of clippers that lack a gulf tap. If the Pac relaxes and we get a healthy ejection of energy from the SW, but no blocking, then we end up on the warm side?

[Krs4Lfe]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

It’s pretty evident just looking at the h5 maps. It’s been difficult to get a shortwave under our latitude. Probably need both the Pacific and Atlantic to cooperate better. I’m not convinced it’s one or the other, though would obviously make sense that the Pacific is more important for the overall jet stream. If there’s blocking, but a steroidal NS, then I guess we end up with an array of clippers that lack a gulf tap. If the Pac relaxes and we get a healthy ejection of energy from the SW, but no blocking, then we end up on the warm side?

Exactly. The northern stream and southern stream need to be timed perfectly in order to amplify without the suppression risks and the cutter risks that we've seen this entire decade (aside from 2021 and January 2022). While we were admittedly spoiled in the 2000s and 2010s, I don't consider this a reversion to the mean, I consider this to be part of a larger climatological problem (though I suppose that's discussion for another thread.)

[Ji]

Snow ensemble maps mean nothing at range. Seen them show tons of snow and we have got none. It matter when they start to show something for an aural storm inside 5 days. 

Highly disagree

[clskinsfan]

Dont really get the angst. This mornings gfs run was pretty decent. We are going to see threats pop up in the short term imo.

[Alfoman]

8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Dont really get the angst. This mornings gfs run was pretty decent. We are going to see threats pop up in the short term imo.

Agreed! And it's coming more in range, we're just outside of 200 hrs now with the onset of the 14th threat window. I don't think you can ask for more at this point in time than PNA spike in an optimal initial position out west with a few southern stream vorts dancing around a potential phasing situation. 

As it ALWAYS has been, we just need to get a little lucky.

I don't expect ensembles to show huge totals until the details consolidate, but encouraging to see the amount of offshore coastal show up on the GEFS/EPS increase for 0Z. We've survived 5 days of 2026 without a distinct threat to follow, we can handle another few days. 

 

[mitchnick]

24 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Dont really get the angst. This mornings gfs run was pretty decent. We are going to see threats pop up in the short term imo.

Realistically, legit "interest" begins mid month.

[Eskimo Joe]

24 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Dont really get the angst. This mornings gfs run was pretty decent. We are going to see threats pop up in the short term imo.

Agreed. Ji is just being Ji. 

[Weather Will]

In a new post, JB states there will be a 5-7 day window for an east coast storm but then we will wait until February with the MJO going into Phase 6.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

In a new post, JB states there will be a 5-7 day window for an east coast storm but then we will wait until February with the MJO going into Phase 6.

January forecast sounds about right. Who knows on February. 

[Weather Will]

Latest WB EPS extended for first two weeks of February show below normal temps and normal precipitation.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Latest WB EPS extended for first two weeks of February show below normal temps and normal precipitation.

Not so sure I buy temps. Precip....yes. Anything other than AN can be believed.