Hurricane Melissa

[cptcatz]

First pass of the morning shows it weaker than NHC estimated. Is it topping out?

[cptcatz]

Interesting dropsonde though. Really impressive winds higher up but not reaching down to the surface. 

[hawkeye_wx]

The new recon plane suggests this is actually not a cat 4. The latest NHC estimate is too low by 8 mb.  The pressure has only dropped from 959 to 952 over the last several hours.  Also, the new plane did not find any increase in wind on its first pass, whereas the NHC increased the wind by 20 mph.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The latest NHC update is too low by 8 mb.  The pressure has only dropped from 959 to 952 over the last several hours.

Looks pretty impressive on satellite though. 

[Windspeed]

That was a NW to SE pass. I'd imagine the NE quadrant isn't too far off from ADT. Also, the pressure is still dropping, and there is a bit of lag time. It is good we have recon out there at present because I'd expect to see continued signs of intensification on the next four passes for the mission.

[HKY_WX]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

We've seen these trochoidal wobble around islands including Jamaica, as well. Especially the slow w/wsw drifters. There are a variety of scenarios that are less than "worst-case", a little early to be declaring anything

That's a good point, but most canes normally approach Jamaica from the east on a westward heading. At that trajectory it lends itself to the frictional land effects and wobbles away from the island. This one will be heading north as its caught up in the trough and the angle of approach will make that scenario unlikely. It's obviously still possible though. The only beneficial factor wind wise would be some small weakening on approach but rainfall wise they are completely effed.

[jbenedet]

Another track with Bermuda in the crosshairs. Still a ways out but losing track of how many times Bermuda has been under significant threat of direct hits from canes past 3 tropical seasons.

 

[cptcatz]

Also interesting to note is this is a pretty small storm right now. Impressive winds barely reach past the eyewall. 

[GaWx]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
 
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS SAMPLING MELISSA...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH
MIDWEEK... 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 76.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Melissa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. Further rapid intensification is expected 
through tonight, followed by fluctuations in intensity.  Melissa is 
expected to be a major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica 
Monday night or Tuesday morning and southeastern Cuba late Tuesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).
 
The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data 
is 952 mb (28.12 inches).

[Torch Tiger]

43 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

That's a good point, but most canes normally approach Jamaica from the east on a westward heading. At that trajectory it lends itself to the frictional land effects and wobbles away from the island. This one will be heading north as its caught up in the trough and the angle of approach will make that scenario unlikely. It's obviously still possible though. The only beneficial factor wind wise would be some small weakening on approach but rainfall wise they are completely effed.

Yeah I agree with that. Weakening or structural changes, another way this could be less than worst-case.

[cptcatz]

Second pass: slightly higher winds in the NE eyewall but no change in pressure and no support of 140 mph winds. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Crazy that 4 of 5 hurricanes this year have been cat 4+

[SnoSki14]

12 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Second pass: slightly higher winds in the NE eyewall but no change in pressure and no support of 140 mph winds. 

I think the NHC got a bit ahead of themselves here. 

[dan11295]

It appears NHC overshot the actual winds and pressure drop with the 5 am advisory. But I understand operationally why they would not want to drop the winds, which could imply a weakening system. They obviously do not want anyone to start letting their guard down with the main rain shield now very close to reaching Jamaica.

[Windspeed]

I think the NHC got a bit ahead of themselves here. 

No, they didn't get ahead of themselves. Their discussion followed ADT. Without reconnaissance data, you use what you have access to. Obviously, satellite isn't always as accurate, but it's usually close. Structurally, Melissa looks to be intensifying based on remote sensing data. But recon shows it's a little behind satellite trends. Visually, I don't think anyone would argue that Melissa looks like an intensifying Category 4. I don't think it will matter by this afternoon, regardless.

[hawkeye_wx]

3rd recon pass this morning continues to find a steady-state storm.  The pressure is 953 mb, actually up a hair, and 120 kts flight level in the right (strongest) quad, which equates to 125 mph at the surface using the NHC's 0.9 method.

[Maxwell03]

The western tracks by intensity models are easier on Kingston, but worse for tourist hubs Montego Bay and Negril. 

[Windspeed]

Most recent long-range radar image.

[MN Transplant]

Amazing that this thing is still 36+ hours from landfall.

[WxWatcher007]

The last dropsonde found surface winds of 111kt with 128kt at 925mb in the northern section of the eyewall, so while potentially a little high, the NHC is in the ballpark. We’ll see what the next recon flight finds. 

[cptcatz]

25 minutes ago, Maxwell03 said:

The western tracks by intensity models are easier on Kingston, but worse for tourist hubs Montego Bay and Negril. 

I'm no expert on the socioeconomics of Jamaica but I would guess the tourist areas would fare better than the higher poverty areas of Kingston. Kingston getting the worse of it would likely cause a humanitarian crisis.