Hurricane Erin: 100 MPH - 954 mb - NNW @ 13

[Coach McGuirk]

Hurricane Isabel 2003 165 MPH 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said:

The most talked about nothing hurricane ever?

As beaches are being rearranged on the outter banks and in the north east. I’m in Montauk by  right now and there are already major over washes and beach erosion 

[NorthHillsWx]

2 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said:

Hurricane Isabel 2003 165 MPH 

To be quite honest, other than Erin not being an annular cat 5 truck tire monster like Isabel, there are a lot of similarities. Its post-peak progression has been about the same and other than slamming headfirst into obx it’s swinging wide right by 150 miles. Current structure reminds me of Isabel a lot when it came into NC

[olafminesaw]

Just uniquely stunning this morning.

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Just uniquely stunning this morning.

That dry air entrainment will cap any potential strengthening but with shear low and pressure falls this thing is continuing to grow in size 

[Kevin Reilly]

3 hours ago, Coach McGuirk said:

It was a pin needle cat 5 for a minute. 

I think this is 3 years in a row with a Category 5 Hurricane breaking records for date / time / location that to me is enough for pause and wonder as we track hurricanes.

Tracking Hurricanes is more than just watching them barrel onshore if it comes to that, but rather learning from them to see how they track, what most effects their track and how it is connected to the overall world climate picture, weather patterns, and even ocean currents. 

[GaWx]

The minimum SLP has dropped as the models predicted. It’s down to 948 mb

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 73.7W
ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES

 

 

Erin is a large hurricane.  Hurricane-force winds extend outward up 
to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds 
extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km).
 
The minimum central pressure reported by the Air Force Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft is 948 mb (28.00 inches).

[olafminesaw]

Wide view

[NorthHillsWx]

15 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Wide view

Check out the lighting aligning with the dry slot. Notice there isn’t any around the core. Incredible shot!

[Wannabehippie]

53 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That dry air entrainment will cap any potential strengthening but with shear low and pressure falls this thing is continuing to grow in size 

Tropical systems will always grow in size as they gain latitude.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That dry air entrainment will cap any potential strengthening but with shear low and pressure falls this thing is continuing to grow in size 

Maybe it has a run back to 110-115mph left in it but the pressure falls seem to be going into expanding size vs stronger winds and the core still looks degraded/half-a-cane like. The huge area of strong winds are churning up lots of ocean still. 

[Windspeed]

Looks like we're in the spiral galaxy phase of Erin's lifecycle... lol

[olafminesaw]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Maybe it has a run back to 110-115mph left in it but the pressure falls seem to be going into expanding size vs stronger winds and the core still looks degraded/half-a-cane like. The huge area of strong winds are churning up lots of ocean still. 

Yeah, I've seen this with some WPAC hurricanes where it builds a massive outer eyewall which has hurricane force winds and the inner eyewall remains quite  weak relative to the pressure.

[wthrmn654]

Buoy 41047 which was east of Erin, I think had instruments destroyed or is batteries are in bad shape.... it stopped sending wind speed last night bearing 70knts but still was sending wave and pressure readings. Waves at 40 feet might i add and a pressure reading as low at 29.15mb

[NorthHillsWx]

Recon reveals what most have been saying- a very broad system without a sharp inner core. Highest FL winds again well away from center and SFMR readings appear to show a lack of efficient mixing of winds to surface. Though the sat appearance has improved and pressure falls continue, this likely isn’t generating cat 2 winds at this juncture, just a large area of 60-75kt wind

[NJwx85]

There’s a noticeable eye showing up on IR and there was another blow up of convection near the center. Yes, there is some dry air but I think the moat you’re seeing is mainly due to the expanding system. Erin’s outflow is now reaching into Southern Virginia on the NW side.

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Recon reveals what most have been saying- a very broad system without a sharp inner core. Highest FL winds again well away from center and SFMR readings appear to show a lack of efficient mixing of winds to surface. Though the sat appearance has improved and pressure falls continue, this likely isn’t generating cat 2 winds at this juncture, just a large area of 60-75kt wind

But that’s exactly what you’d expect as it starts to feel the effects of the trough. It’s already showing signs of becoming extra tropical.

[BooneWX]

For those interested in wave heights as the forbidden cinnamon roll approaches, Frying Pan Tower’s live cam is back online just in time. 
 

Link: 

 

[NorthHillsWx]

13 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

For those interested in wave heights as the forbidden cinnamon roll approaches, Frying Pan Tower’s live cam is back online just in time. 
 

Link: 

 

The “forbidden cinnamon roll” just made me spit up my coffee. I’m saving that term for future use 

[olafminesaw]

Pressure dropped about 5 mb between passes. 

[Wannabehippie]

Small eye forming, open to the SE. If it can clear out the dry air it could get some intensification. 

[NJwx85]

Very visible eye now. It will probably be a major again today, which was forecasted.

[BooneWX]

This is one of the more fascinating strengthening episodes I’ve seen for a storm. It’s basically an entirely new core and system living in the body of its old self. 

[WxWatcher007]

Here's a loop of the last ten hours of Erin, as it enters its final act along the east coast. Note how dramatically the size of Erin has changed in just a short period of time. 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Recon reveals what most have been saying- a very broad system without a sharp inner core. Highest FL winds again well away from center and SFMR readings appear to show a lack of efficient mixing of winds to surface. Though the sat appearance has improved and pressure falls continue, this likely isn’t generating cat 2 winds at this juncture, just a large area of 60-75kt wind

Yep, a somewhat smaller and more organized version of Sandy. Thankfully this one is headed NE soon. Sandy’s pressure was also a Cat 3 strength but also put any strengthening into a larger wind field. 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[GaWx]

30 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Look at how well yesterday’s 0Z UKMET did with the general direction of pressures going both up and down:

-0Z 8/19 initialization 943 vs actual of 947

-12Z 8/19 963 vs actual of 958

-12Z 8/20 942 vs actual of 948 then and actual at 14Z ~942

 

HURRICANE ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 23.9N 71.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2025 0 23.9N 71.5W  943 84
1200UTC 19.08.2025 12 25.2N 72.6W  963 75
0000UTC 20.08.2025 24 26.9N 73.1W 953 79
1200UTC 20.08.2025 36 28.9N 74.3W 942 89

[yoda]

 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Advisory Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025
 
...LARGE ERIN STRENGTHENS WHILE HEADED NORTH...
...BEACHGOERS ARE CAUTIONED AGAINST SWIMMING AT MOST U.S. EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 73.7W
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of the North
Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague, Virginia.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Lookout to Duck, North Carolina
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Beaufort Inlet, North Carolina to Chincoteague, Virginia,
including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

[NorthHillsWx]

Little surprised they bumped winds to 95 kts given highest SFMR winds were around 75 kts and strongest FL winds were almost 100 miles from center

[yoda]

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that the hurricane has strengthened with peak 700 mb flight-level 
winds of 115 kt well to the east of the center.  Using a reduction 
factor somewhat greater than that which would be used for eyewall 
winds, the intensity is set at 95 kt for this advisory.  A dropsonde 
in the eye measured a surface pressure of 943 mb with 9 kt winds so 
the minimum central pressure has fallen to an estimated 942 mb.  The 
hurricane has become better organized on satellite images this 
morning with a symmetric-looking cloud pattern and numerous banding 
features.  The eye has again become evident on the imagery and 
upper-level outflow is well-defined over all quadrants.
  
Erin's is now moving northward with an initial motion estimate of 
350/11 kt.  There has been no significant change in the track 
forecast guidance since the last advisory package.  Over the 
next couple of days, Erin should move northward along the western 
periphery of a 500 mb high, and then turn northeastward as it 
rounds the northwestern side of the high.  Then, the system should 
accelerate northeastward to east-northeastward while moving within 
the southern belt of the the mid-latitude westerlies.  The official 
track forecast is close to the previous one and in good agreement 
with the various dynamical model consensus predictions.
 
Erin still has a rather broad inner core but the eyewall appears to 
be reforming.  The system is over warm waters and within a moist 
low- to mid-level air mass.  Although the vertical wind shear is 
currently light, the SHIPS model predicts a significant increase in 
shear in 12-24 hours.  Therefore the hurricane has the potential to 
strengthen some more in the short term, particularly if the inner 
core becomes even better defined. By 36 hours and beyond, westerly 
shear is predicted to become prohibitively high, so a weakening 
trend is likely to commence later on Thursday.  Simulated satellite 
imagery from the global models suggest that Erin will become an 
extratropical cyclone in 96 hours or sooner.   
 
It should be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities
in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the
risk of those winds occurring.  This is because the forecast wind
field of Erin is considerably larger than average compared to the
wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip 
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of 
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next several days. 
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards, 
local authorities, and beach warning flags.
 
2. Storm surge flooding and tropical storm conditions are expected 
in the North Carolina Outer Banks beginning later today. The 
storm surge will be accompanied by large waves, leading to 
significant beach erosion and overwash, making some roads 
impassible.  

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Thursday along the 
Virginia coast. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are likely along 
portions of the remainder of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and southern New 
England coasts Thursday through early Friday. 
 
4. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda on Thursday and 
Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 30.1N  73.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 32.0N  73.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 34.4N  72.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 36.6N  69.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 38.6N  65.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  23/0000Z 40.4N  60.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 42.5N  54.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  24/1200Z 47.4N  40.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  25/1200Z 52.5N  27.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch