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Sustained unseasonable warmth could develop starting late in the first week of September or just afterward. The ECMWF weeklies suggest that the September 4-18 period could see temperatures average above to much above normal across the region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around August 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.23°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.

The SOI was -24.76 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.278 today.

On August 28 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.986 (RMM). The August 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.100 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.0° (1.1° below normal).

 

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8/30 
Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 100 (1953)
NYC: 98 (1973)
LGA: 99 (1953)


Lows:

EWR: 49 (1934)
NYC: 50 (1965)
LGA: 55 (1986)

Historical: 

 

1776 - General Washington took advantage of a heavy fog to evacuate Long Island after a defeat. Adverse winds kept the British fleet from intervening. (David Ludlum)

 

1838: A major tornado, possibly the worst in Rhode Island history, passed south of Providence. It uprooted and stripped trees of their branches, unroofed or destroyed many houses, and sucked water out of ponds. The tornado barely missed a local railroad depot, where many people were waiting for a train. The tornado injured five people. 

1839 - A hurricane moved from Cape Hatteras NC to offshore New England. An unusual feature of the hurricane was the snow it helped produce, which whitened the Catskill Mountains of New York State. Considerable snow was also reported at Salem NY. (The Weather Channel)

1982 - A tropical depression brought torrential rains to portions of southern Texas. Up to twelve inches fell south of Houston, and as much as eighteen inches fell southeast of Austin. The tropical depression spawned fourteen tornadoes in three days. (David Ludlum) Record cold gripped the northeastern U.S. Thirty-one cities in New England reported record lows, and areas of Vermont received up to three inches of snow. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Eight cities in California and Oregon reported record high temperatures for the date, including Redding CA and Sacramento CA where the mercury hit 100 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thunderstorms drenched Georgia and the Carolinas with heavy rain, soaking Columbia, SC, with 4.10 inches in three hours. Fresno CA was the hot spot in the nation with a record high of 109 degrees. Duluth MN tied their record for the month of August with a morning low of 39 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced large hail in Montana and North Dakota during the evening and early nighttime hours. Hail three inches in diameter was reported 20 miles south of Medora ND, and thunderstorms over Dawson County MT produced up to three inches of rain. Thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail at Roundup MT, Dazey ND and Protection KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

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The last day of August is averaging   72degs.(64/80) or Normal.

August to date is  75.2[-1.0].      August should end at 75.0[-1.1].

Reached 86 here yesterday at 5pm.

Today:   76-80, becoming m. sunny, 62 by tomorrow AM.

66*(70%RH) here at 7am.      65* at 9am.      70* at Noon.      73* at 2pm.      77* at 4pm.     Reached 80* at 6pm.

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Summer temperatures were close to average for the warmer 1991-2020 climate normals period. Rainfall was above average north and below average south. Seems like the Driscoll Bridge was the dividing line between above and below average rainfall.

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67 / 52 clouds splitting the region / S 1/2 on NJ (Idalia). Should clear out later today. August ending on a dry and gorgeous note.  Warm near 80 and lows in the 60s / 50s inland.

 

Sep opens near normal and dry with a NE onshore-ish low.  Ridge builds east as deep trough moves into the PNW - WC.  Overall warm to hot as flow comes around NE-N - NW and Wrly.  SOme heat especially inland.  Outside of the ghost of Idalia being pushed back west from the building Wstern Atl Rdge - looks dry and overall warm.   Into the beyond overall ridging but need to watch cut off or ULL othr wise riding a warm Sep.

 

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GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif  

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9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We had plenty of blocking last “winter”. The PNA/PDO were so insanely negative it didn’t matter. Nina shouldn’t mean snow/rain bonanzas in California. 

Just looking at the 2nd lowest December -AO last year would have made you think we should have had a KU event.


47FE5AA9-E4B8-4E45-A00E-73B09924D7AB.png.e76e47349fa0790816fcb2b3a185e187.png

 

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