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3/10 and beyond... all the waves threats


mappy
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11 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Terpeast mentioned in his thread that it is possible the mid lat SST's are warming faster than the tropical SST's. Possibly make Nina's a permanent base state. I hope not. 

Yeah, the sst gradients was what I was thinking. 

But I haven’t thought about trade winds and sst differences between east pac and the MC. I’m sure it is a lot more complicated than temp differences between the mid-lats and tropical pac. 

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4 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, the sst gradients was what I was thinking. 

But I haven’t thought about trade winds and sst differences between east pac and the MC. I’m sure it is a lot more complicated than temp differences between the mid-lats and tropical pac. 

Yeah I was getting ready to say...Because if enso were just water temps being a certain temperature just because it would be El niño all the time with all the warm water :lol: 

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18 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey I've been wondering about this...Why did the Super Niños of 65-66 & 82-83 do the same thing as well? If not, what is it about 98 and 16 that ushered in the warmer state? And also...if it's a moderate Niño a la 02-03 or 09-10 does it have the same effect?

(Sorry I know there's like three questions in one there, lol)

There is definitely a sweet spot where we can get the positive affects of a Nino without a significant permanent hemispheric climate impact. But now we’re talking about a really narrow range between too weak to appreciably alter the pacific (2019) and too strong.  How narrow are our goalposts getting?  
 

This is speculative but there are tipping points. 66 and 83 maybe did contribute some permanent warming but the colder base state then was able to recover more. Warming is accelerating even absent a Nino. That might have an exponential impact. Like giving a little shove uphill v downhill. One of those has way more impact!  

4 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, the sst gradients was what I was thinking. 

But I haven’t thought about trade winds and sst differences between east pac and the MC. I’m sure it is a lot more complicated than temp differences between the mid-lats and tropical pac. 

I’ve seen this same speculation and even some preliminary studies that do suggest that the lessening gradient is somewhat responsible for much of this but also that an impact of the changed pac base state is increasing the frequency of Nina’s.  It seems still too early to know how much though. 
 

Unfortunately for us I’ve seen so much speculation around numerous individual factors, some directly related to climate change some indirectly, and I have no idea how many are really impacting and to what degree, but the problem is it seems every single one of them disproportionately affects our location negatively wrt snow. Indo pac warm pool, reduced sulfur emissions, expanded pac Hadley cell, warmer gulf and Atlantic, altered trade wind patterns) it doesn’t even matter if ALL are having the speculated impacts because every single one has a negative impact on our snow and we didn’t exactly have a lot of room to spare with our snow climo before!  Even if only 1-2 are actually having much impact it’s going to hurt us a lot. 

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52 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Well, at least no planting flowers for 10 more days…

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Given the pattern it won’t surprise me if at some point in the next 2-3 weeks we do get a storm that teases us with some snow in the area. It’s highly unlikely we get anything significant of course. 

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Lmao, I just got home from vacation.   Was expecting at least 10" of snow on the ground.  Instead I got 50F+ and sunny and my viburnums are about to break into song.   Sorry [mention=15338]WesternFringe[/mention], there's always next year.  Even a 4th grader coulda figured out that we weren't getting any snow this march.   I guess there's always the hope for a late April snowstorm?   Cows could come home on their own too.   

You forgot to tell us how much your vacation cost per night. We’ve been eagerly awaiting
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Just now, Ji said:


Not sure what the rush to heat is. It’s hot 9 months a year

Yeah especially around here where we do humid well. Not sure why people root for warmth so much...I think for some it's a coping mechanism to sarcastically root for it to numb the snowless pain, lol

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Just now, North Balti Zen said:

there's some really nice temps between whatever the hell today is and HEAT.  I would like to spend some time in that area this spring all things being equal

I’d be very good with 3 months of deep winter, 1 month of summer, and 8 months of 65-80F. 

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1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

there's some really nice temps between whatever the hell today is and HEAT.  I would like to spend some time in that area this spring all things being equal

It’s going to be sunny and 60-65 Tuesday. 70s later this week.  Seriously, life is harsh and unforgiving, filled with countless assholes you will have to deal with, death, pain, tragedy, unfairness, and misery.  No one can afford to be so weak they can’t simply adult up and deal with a chilly day. 

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2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I’d be very good with 3 months of deep winter, 1 month of summer, and 8 months of 65-80F. 

Did you check out the Washington Post today.  Apparently, Alaska is the #4 retirement "destination" in the U.S. behind Arizona, California, and Florida. You'll have company. 

Surprisingly, to people on this list,  desire for snow is not believed to be the main reason. 

 

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1 hour ago, dallen7908 said:

Did you check out the Washington Post today.  Apparently, Alaska is the #4 retirement "destination" in the U.S. behind Arizona, California, and Florida. You'll have company. 

Surprisingly, to people on this list,  desire for snow is not believed to be the main reason. 

 

They must love 20 hours of darkness. 

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21 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I know I would.

The problem there is that the summer is opposite of that.   And that'd be miserable.

I thought I was the only weirdo here who enjoys winter's darkness :lol:  I appreciate spring and, eventually, long summer eves...but...I really need to acclimate to all the light! March being the worst of it. Always a bit out of sorts while everyone's woo-hooing about longer days :lol:

Endless daylight? :stun:

Edit: never experienced 20 hours of darkness IRL. But willing to give it a go.

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Not sure what the rush to heat is. It’s hot 9 months a year

I’d take snow in may. No rush here. I despise the heat. I was referring to the purple on the snow map, not the temp map. Just commenting on the fact that the 6” the gfs showed IMBY earlier is likely BS is all.
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It’s going to be sunny and 60-65 Tuesday. 70s later this week.  Seriously, life is harsh and unforgiving, filled with countless assholes you will have to deal with, death, pain, tragedy, unfairness, and misery.  No one can afford to be so weak they can’t simply adult up and deal with a chilly day. 

If I could pick an ideal weather, outside of having cold and snow, I’d pick 50s and sunny all year. I loathe the heat.
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Yeah especially around here where we do humid well. Not sure why people root for warmth so much...I think for some it's a coping mechanism to sarcastically root for it to numb the snowless pain, lol

Heat sucks. Humidity sucks. Give me either snow / cold or 50s maybe low 60s, low humidity and sunny. I enjoy a cool spring day. Summer is my body’s kryptonite. 70s is bearable but 80+ and I’m profusely sweating
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10 hours ago, jayyy said:


Heat sucks. Humidity sucks. Give me either snow / cold or 50s maybe low 60s, low humidity and sunny. I enjoy a cool spring day. Summer is my body’s kryptonite. 70s is bearable but 80+ and I’m profusely sweating emoji28.png

Ohhhh the sweating! See, due to a physical factor I can't nail down yet, I sweat rather easily in neutral conditions...So when that humidity hits I'm basically a walking sprinkler, lol

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16 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah especially around here where we do humid well. Not sure why people root for warmth so much...I think for some it's a coping mechanism to sarcastically root for it to numb the snowless pain, lol

There's a huge difference between warmth that's being rooted for and heat.

I have not seen one person rooting for heat. But warmer temperatures than we have now? Yes! Who wouldn't want that?

I stated this before. Our window of nice weather is extremely short. Anything we can do to get the nice weather in here quickly, before we drown in heat and humidity, bring it on. Being cold is absolutely useless this time of year.

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